The same production stack priced under 1 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Hindsight (post-hoc) 104% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnier Paul | Soudal Quick-Step | 46.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Van Eetvelt Lennert | Lotto-Intermarché | 6.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Decomble Maxime | Groupama-FDJ United | 5.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Carr Simon | Cofidis | 4.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Biermans Jenthe | Cofidis | 3.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Pekala Piotr | ATT Investments | 3.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Slock Liam | Lotto-Intermarché | 3.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Novak Samuel | Tirol KTM Cycling Team | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Milan Matteo | Groupama-FDJ United | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Bravo Henrique | Soudal Quick-Step | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Barthe Cyril | Groupama-FDJ United | 2.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Källberg Axel | Lucky Sport Cycling Team | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Thomas Benjamin | Cofidis | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Van Gils Lucas | Lotto-Intermarché | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Martinsen Toralf Rydningen | Team Drali-Repsol | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Meehan Jamie | Cofidis | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magnier Paul | 46.6% | 43.2% | 45.6% | 60.4% | 78.1% | n/a |
| 2 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 18.4% | 54.7% | n/a |
| 3 | Decomble Maxime | 5.6% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 10.2% | 36.7% | n/a |
| 4 | Carr Simon | 4.8% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 23.2% | n/a |
| 5 | Biermans Jenthe | 3.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 23.0% | 65.7% | n/a |
| 6 | Pekala Piotr | 3.5% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 46.0% | n/a |
| 7 | Slock Liam | 3.2% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 43.0% | n/a |
| 8 | Novak Samuel | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 5.9% | 40.4% | n/a |
| 9 | Milan Matteo | 2.2% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 19.2% | 50.5% | n/a |
| 10 | Bravo Henrique | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 5.7% | 36.7% | n/a |
| 11 | Barthe Cyril | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 8.3% | 44.3% | n/a |
| 12 | Källberg Axel | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 6.3% | 58.7% | n/a |
| 13 | Thomas Benjamin | 1.8% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 9.1% | 33.1% | n/a |
| 14 | Van Gils Lucas | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 3.4% | 15.8% | n/a |
| 15 | Martinsen Toralf Rydningen | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 5.8% | 31.4% | n/a |
| 16 | Meehan Jamie | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 52.3% | n/a |
| 17 | Greenwell Samuel | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 25.1% | n/a |
| 18 | Dubois Yann | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 5.5% | 29.3% | n/a |
| 19 | Kepplinger Rainer | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 26.6% | n/a |
| 20 | Daumas Rémi | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 17.7% | n/a |
| 21 | Ginter Nicolas | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 22.4% | n/a |
| 22 | Consolidani Leonardo | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 26.2% | n/a |
| 23 | Martinsen Georg Rydningen | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 15.6% | n/a |
| 24 | van Gestel Dries | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 6.0% | 25.1% | n/a |
| 25 | Ilski Szymon | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 11.2% | n/a |
| 26 | Agnoletto Blake | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 21.8% | n/a |
| 27 | Riman Jakub | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 9.8% | n/a |
| 28 | Ridolfo Filippo | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 16.5% | n/a |
| 29 | Rosato Giacomo | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 19.8% | n/a |
| 30 | Granberg Sander | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 2.0% | 11.9% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | Lotto-Intermarché | 6.7% |
| 2 | Thomas Benjamin | Cofidis | 1.8% |
| 3 | Hofer Valentin | Bahrain Victorious Development Team | 0.1% |
| 4 | Källberg Axel | Lucky Sport Cycling Team | 1.9% |
| 5 | Kaczmarek Jakub | Voster Team | 0.3% |
| 6 | Slock Liam | Lotto-Intermarché | 3.2% |
| 7 | Villa Giacomo | Biesse-Carrera Premac | 0.2% |
| 8 | Consolidani Leonardo | Bahrain Victorious Development Team | 0.5% |
| 9 | Meehan Jamie | Cofidis | 1.2% |
| 10 | Novak Samuel | Tirol KTM Cycling Team | 2.2% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 6.65% | – |