One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals hindsight 95% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Godon Dorian | NETCOMPANY INEOS | 10.4% | 15.9% | 9.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Pithie Laurence | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE | 9.1% | 14.0% | 8.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Silva Thomas | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 8.7% | 4.6% | 10.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Pedersen Mads | LIDL-TREK | 7.8% | 17.6% | 5.8% | n/a | – | – |
| van den Berg Marijn | EF EDUCATION - EASYPOST | 5.9% | 3.5% | 6.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Matthews Michael | TEAM JAYCO ALULA | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Vendrame Andrea | TEAM JAYCO ALULA | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Oldani Stefano | CAJA RURAL-SEGUROS RGA | 3.4% | 1.3% | 4.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Aranburu Alex | COFIDIS | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Strong Corbin | NSN CYCLING TEAM | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Isidore Noa | DECATHLON CMA CGM TEAM | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Lamperti Luke | EF EDUCATION - EASYPOST | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Dati Tommaso | TEAM UKYO | 2.1% | 1.0% | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Zambanini Edoardo | BAHRAIN VICTORIOUS | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Donati Davide | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE ROOKIES | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Turner Ben | NETCOMPANY INEOS | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Colnaghi Luca | BARDIANI CSF 7 SABER | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Schmid Mauro | TEAM JAYCO ALULA | 1.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Belletta Dario | TEAM POLTI VISITMALTA | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Groves Kaden | ALPECIN-PREMIER TECH | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Godon Dorian | 10.4% | 15.9% | 9.6% | 30.1% | 59.4% | n/a |
| 2 | Pithie Laurence | 9.1% | 14.0% | 8.4% | 30.6% | 54.5% | n/a |
| 3 | Silva Thomas | 8.7% | 4.6% | 10.3% | 16.5% | 42.8% | n/a |
| 4 | Pedersen Mads | 7.8% | 17.6% | 5.8% | 30.9% | 50.8% | n/a |
| 5 | van den Berg Marijn | 5.9% | 3.5% | 6.8% | 16.4% | 46.2% | n/a |
| 6 | Matthews Michael | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 13.1% | 44.8% | n/a |
| 7 | Vendrame Andrea | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 11.0% | 47.2% | n/a |
| 8 | Oldani Stefano | 3.4% | 1.3% | 4.2% | 9.0% | 43.3% | n/a |
| 9 | Aranburu Alex | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 11.2% | 42.9% | n/a |
| 10 | Strong Corbin | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 9.4% | 40.9% | n/a |
| 11 | Isidore Noa | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 7.4% | 29.0% | n/a |
| 12 | Lamperti Luke | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 6.4% | 30.4% | n/a |
| 13 | Dati Tommaso | 2.1% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 5.7% | 21.4% | n/a |
| 14 | Zambanini Edoardo | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 7.7% | 43.4% | n/a |
| 15 | Donati Davide | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 14.1% | n/a |
| 16 | Turner Ben | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 7.3% | 22.6% | n/a |
| 17 | Colnaghi Luca | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 26.1% | n/a |
| 18 | Schmid Mauro | 1.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 5.3% | 20.9% | n/a |
| 19 | Belletta Dario | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 31.2% | n/a |
| 20 | Groves Kaden | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 13.7% | n/a |
| 21 | Tesfazion Natnael | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 28.6% | n/a |
| 22 | Barrenetxea Jon | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 3.7% | 31.9% | n/a |
| 23 | Trentin Matteo | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 33.1% | n/a |
| 24 | Ganna Filippo | 0.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 8.1% | 20.6% | n/a |
| 25 | Raccagni Noviero Andrea | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 4.3% | 24.9% | n/a |
| 26 | Canal Carlos | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 4.8% | 27.1% | n/a |
| 27 | Narvaez Jhonnatan | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 13.0% | n/a |
| 28 | Persico Davide | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 4.5% | n/a |
| 29 | Baroncini Filippo | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 9.3% | n/a |
| 30 | Zanoncello Enrico | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 17.5% | n/a |
After the race
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isidore Noa | DECATHLON CMA CGM TEAM | 2.4% |
| 2 | Dati Tommaso | TEAM UKYO | 2.1% |
| 3 | Aular Orluis | MOVISTAR TEAM | 0.2% |
| 4 | Romele Alessandro | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 0.2% |
| 5 | Godon Dorian | NETCOMPANY INEOS | 10.4% |
| 6 | Reinderink Pepijn | SOUDAL QUICK-STEP | 0.2% |
| 7 | Donati Davide | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE ROOKIES | 1.8% |
| 8 | Vendrame Andrea | TEAM JAYCO ALULA | 3.5% |
| 9 | Baroncini Filippo | UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG | 0.4% |
| 10 | Løland Sakarias Koller | UNO-X MOBILITY | 0.2% |
| Reading | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 2.44% | 1.86% | 2.72% | – |
Result rows are joined to the boards by FirstCycling rider id through the riders table. 0 row(s) needed the normalised-name fallback; 2 finisher(s) could not be matched at all.