Cycling race predictor · CRO Race

Stage 1 — 2026-09-22

The same production stack priced under 2 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.

2 scenarios 118 riders priced models retrained 75c6e7af51 book snapshot no capture

← System overview, season boards & the full race views

The fork

2 readings of the same road

Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.

Main read

The main read — the day as the key says it goes

sprint0.49

mountain0.02

hilly0.21

rolling0.02

break0.06

TT0.20

keyed: bunch sprint 0.6 / survivor gallop 0.2 / split sprint 0.1 (written by the automated reader, not by a person) (board order by rider-type retrieval; prices unchanged)

The main board. It inherits the config-root day key and is priced on the reference set that key selects.

Top 5 (blend): Magnier Paul 64.8%; Kogut Oded 6.6%; Blikra Erlend 5.9%; Molano Sebastian 5.5%; van Poppel Danny 5.3%

Alt: res_3

The other branch — a reduced bunch sprint

sprint0.00

mountain0.18

hilly0.00

rolling0.71

break0.10

TT0.00

keyed: survivor gallop (written by the automated reader, not by a person) (board order by rider-type retrieval; prices unchanged)

The alternate branch, chosen by the driver because the day key carries weight in a second family (a sprint off a hard finale). It is priced as if that shape were certain, so the two boards bracket the read.

Top 5 (blend): Magnier Paul 15.8%; Tiberi Antonio 11.6%; Van Wilder Ilan 8.7%; Zambanini Edoardo 6.7%; van Poppel Danny 6.6%

The board

Win probabilities, scenario by scenario

Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.

Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Main read 115%, Alt: res_3 99% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.

Rider	Team	Main read	Alt: res_3	Book odds	Book devig	Max edge
Magnier Paul	Soudal Quick-Step	64.8%	15.8%	n/a	–	–
Tiberi Antonio	Bahrain Victorious	0.3%	11.6%	n/a	–	–
Van Wilder Ilan	Soudal Quick-Step	0.1%	8.7%	n/a	–	–
Zambanini Edoardo	Bahrain Victorious	0.7%	6.7%	n/a	–	–
van Poppel Danny	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	5.3%	6.6%	n/a	–	–
Kogut Oded	NSN Cycling Team	6.6%	0.3%	n/a	–	–
Wellens Tim	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	0.1%	6.1%	n/a	–	–
Blikra Erlend	Uno-X Mobility	5.9%	0.3%	n/a	–	–
Boichis Adrien	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	1.1%	5.6%	n/a	–	–
Molano Sebastian	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	5.5%	0.4%	n/a	–	–
Teutenberg Tim Torn	Lidl-Trek	4.4%	4.4%	n/a	–	–
Rajovic Dusan	Solution Tech-NIPPO-Rali	4.2%	0.1%	n/a	–	–
Kulset Johannes	Uno-X Mobility	0.1%	3.1%	n/a	–	–
Politt Nils	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	0.3%	3.1%	n/a	–	–
Martinez Daniel	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	0.1%	3.0%	n/a	–	–
Donati Davide	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	2.8%	0.3%	n/a	–	–
Teuns Dylan	Cofidis	0.1%	2.1%	n/a	–	–
van Dijke Mick	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	0.7%	1.7%	n/a	–	–
Zanoncello Enrico	Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber	1.5%	0.2%	n/a	–	–
Oliveira Rui	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	1.4%	0.6%	n/a	–	–
Belletta Dario	Team Polti VisitMalta	0.3%	1.1%	n/a	–	–

The main read — the day as the key says it goes — top 30, all heads

#	Rider	Blend	Cascade	LambdaRank	Podium	Top 15	Book odds
1	Magnier Paul	64.8%	59.7%	57.7%	74.6%	84.6%	n/a
2	Kogut Oded	6.6%	6.9%	5.7%	25.4%	56.8%	n/a
3	Blikra Erlend	5.9%	8.4%	4.5%	26.6%	58.1%	n/a
4	Molano Sebastian	5.5%	6.5%	4.5%	19.8%	48.4%	n/a
5	van Poppel Danny	5.3%	5.7%	4.5%	19.3%	59.9%	n/a
6	Teutenberg Tim Torn	4.4%	4.0%	3.9%	16.4%	57.1%	n/a
7	Rajovic Dusan	4.2%	5.0%	3.4%	16.1%	45.9%	n/a
8	Donati Davide	2.8%	2.9%	2.4%	11.2%	48.5%	n/a
9	Zanoncello Enrico	1.5%	0.9%	1.4%	6.0%	40.1%	n/a
10	Oliveira Rui	1.4%	1.3%	1.2%	6.2%	38.0%	n/a
11	Boichis Adrien	1.1%	1.7%	0.8%	8.3%	27.8%	n/a
12	Darder Sergi	0.9%	0.7%	0.8%	3.8%	48.3%	n/a
13	Bevort Carl-Frederik	0.9%	0.9%	0.8%	3.4%	37.0%	n/a
14	Erzen Zak	0.8%	0.8%	0.7%	4.6%	41.0%	n/a
15	Zambanini Edoardo	0.7%	0.3%	0.7%	5.6%	31.9%	n/a
16	Giaimi Luca	0.7%	0.9%	0.6%	4.4%	24.2%	n/a
17	van Dijke Mick	0.7%	0.4%	0.6%	2.9%	21.0%	n/a
18	Viviani Attilio	0.6%	0.5%	0.5%	3.1%	28.6%	n/a
19	Molenaar Alex	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	2.7%	35.7%	n/a
20	Skerl Daniel	0.3%	0.7%	0.2%	3.5%	27.8%	n/a
21	Belletta Dario	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	1.5%	35.8%	n/a
22	Politt Nils	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	2.3%	14.2%	n/a
23	Theuns Edward	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	2.6%	21.4%	n/a
24	Tiberi Antonio	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	1.9%	16.2%	n/a
25	De Longhi Lorenzo	0.2%	0.6%	0.1%	2.3%	25.3%	n/a
26	Buratti Nicolò	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	1.1%	28.2%	n/a
27	McDonald Brody	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	1.3%	24.6%	n/a
28	Pedersen Henrik	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.9%	32.5%	n/a
29	Johansen Julius	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.9%	8.1%	n/a
30	Gazzoli Michele	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.8%	18.4%	n/a

The other branch — a reduced bunch sprint — top 30, all heads

#	Rider	Blend	Cascade	LambdaRank	Podium	Top 15	Book odds
1	Magnier Paul	15.8%	28.8%	12.6%	45.4%	62.2%	n/a
2	Tiberi Antonio	11.6%	9.5%	12.2%	27.1%	69.5%	n/a
3	Van Wilder Ilan	8.7%	9.8%	8.5%	23.1%	58.5%	n/a
4	Zambanini Edoardo	6.7%	3.9%	7.4%	15.6%	59.3%	n/a
5	van Poppel Danny	6.6%	6.4%	6.8%	19.9%	51.6%	n/a
6	Wellens Tim	6.1%	4.7%	6.5%	15.7%	56.6%	n/a
7	Boichis Adrien	5.6%	3.2%	6.3%	13.8%	44.3%	n/a
8	Teutenberg Tim Torn	4.4%	3.7%	4.6%	15.0%	45.9%	n/a
9	Kulset Johannes	3.1%	2.0%	3.4%	7.9%	44.5%	n/a
10	Politt Nils	3.1%	1.9%	3.4%	8.6%	40.3%	n/a
11	Martinez Daniel	3.0%	3.3%	3.0%	13.7%	41.8%	n/a
12	Teuns Dylan	2.1%	1.7%	2.3%	6.1%	37.5%	n/a
13	van Dijke Mick	1.7%	1.5%	1.8%	6.3%	32.4%	n/a
14	Belletta Dario	1.1%	0.5%	1.3%	2.7%	31.9%	n/a
15	Molenaar Alex	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%	3.7%	31.7%	n/a
16	Tolio Alex	0.8%	0.3%	1.0%	1.8%	30.4%	n/a
17	Agirre Jon	0.7%	0.3%	0.8%	2.3%	31.5%	n/a
18	Fabbro Matteo	0.7%	0.2%	0.8%	1.1%	21.9%	n/a
19	Balmer Alexandre	0.6%	0.6%	0.7%	2.4%	27.0%	n/a
20	Pedersen Henrik	0.6%	0.8%	0.6%	3.7%	34.8%	n/a
21	Maisonobe Sam	0.6%	0.5%	0.6%	2.0%	22.2%	n/a
22	Oliveira Rui	0.6%	0.7%	0.6%	5.2%	31.7%	n/a
23	Izquierdo Clement	0.6%	0.7%	0.5%	3.4%	23.5%	n/a
24	Bagatin Christian	0.5%	0.3%	0.5%	0.8%	14.7%	n/a
25	Sorarrain Gorka	0.5%	0.2%	0.6%	1.4%	20.1%	n/a
26	Bevort Carl-Frederik	0.4%	0.7%	0.4%	4.1%	22.4%	n/a
27	Molano Sebastian	0.4%	1.1%	0.3%	3.9%	14.6%	n/a
28	Pesenti Thomas	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%	1.5%	22.2%	n/a
29	Cras Steff	0.4%	0.3%	0.5%	2.4%	18.5%	n/a
30	Theuns Edward	0.4%	0.2%	0.5%	1.3%	9.5%	n/a

After the stage

Results — won by Molano Sebastian

Pos	Rider	Team	Main read win p	Alt: res_3 win p
1	Molano Sebastian	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	5.5%	0.4%
2	Magnier Paul	Soudal Quick-Step	64.8%	15.8%
3	Teutenberg Tim Torn	Lidl-Trek	4.4%	4.4%
4	Erzen Zak	Bahrain Victorious	0.8%	0.1%
5	Zanoncello Enrico	Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber	1.5%	0.2%
6	Darder Sergi	Caja Rural-Seguros RGA	0.9%	0.3%
7	Tiberi Antonio	Bahrain Victorious	0.3%	11.6%
8	Louvel Matis	NSN Cycling Team	0.0%	0.2%
9	McDonald Brody	Modern Adventure Pro Cycling	0.2%	0.0%
10	Bessega Gabriele	Team Polti VisitMalta	0.1%	0.0%

Scenario scoring — probability given to the actual winner

Scenario	Blend win p	Book devig
Main read	5.47%	–
Alt: res_3	0.43%	–