The same production stack priced under 2 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Main read 120%, Alt: res_3 107% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Main read | Alt: res_3 | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnier Paul | Soudal Quick-Step | 58.2% | 32.5% | n/a | – | – |
| van Poppel Danny | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 7.0% | 8.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Teutenberg Tim Torn | Lidl-Trek | 6.1% | 8.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Blikra Erlend | Uno-X Mobility | 7.5% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Kogut Oded | NSN Cycling Team | 7.2% | 3.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Molano Sebastian | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 5.9% | 4.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Zambanini Edoardo | Bahrain Victorious | 1.1% | 5.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Boichis Adrien | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 0.5% | 5.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Rajovic Dusan | Solution Tech-NIPPO-Rali | 4.6% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Tiberi Antonio | Bahrain Victorious | 0.1% | 4.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Donati Davide | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 3.1% | 0.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Politt Nils | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 0.1% | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Zanoncello Enrico | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 2.2% | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Van Wilder Ilan | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.0% | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Oliveira Rui | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 2.1% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Wellens Tim | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 0.1% | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Erzen Zak | Bahrain Victorious | 1.7% | 0.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Darder Sergi | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 1.6% | 0.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Belletta Dario | Team Polti VisitMalta | 0.4% | 1.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Bevort Carl-Frederik | Uno-X Mobility | 1.1% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Kulset Johannes | Uno-X Mobility | 0.1% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Viviani Attilio | Solution Tech-NIPPO-Rali | 1.1% | 0.1% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magnier Paul | 58.2% | 57.9% | 48.5% | 74.1% | 84.4% | n/a |
| 2 | Blikra Erlend | 7.5% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 27.2% | 56.4% | n/a |
| 3 | Kogut Oded | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 27.8% | 56.9% | n/a |
| 4 | van Poppel Danny | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 23.8% | 63.8% | n/a |
| 5 | Teutenberg Tim Torn | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 20.2% | 64.5% | n/a |
| 6 | Molano Sebastian | 5.9% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 20.6% | 48.8% | n/a |
| 7 | Rajovic Dusan | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 15.1% | 43.6% | n/a |
| 8 | Donati Davide | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 12.4% | 50.7% | n/a |
| 9 | Zanoncello Enrico | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 6.6% | 44.8% | n/a |
| 10 | Oliveira Rui | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 9.2% | 43.1% | n/a |
| 11 | Erzen Zak | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 6.7% | 47.4% | n/a |
| 12 | Darder Sergi | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 5.1% | 54.0% | n/a |
| 13 | Zambanini Edoardo | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 5.1% | 30.0% | n/a |
| 14 | Bevort Carl-Frederik | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 6.0% | 42.5% | n/a |
| 15 | Viviani Attilio | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 3.8% | 32.4% | n/a |
| 16 | Molenaar Alex | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 37.6% | n/a |
| 17 | Skerl Daniel | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 7.2% | 33.2% | n/a |
| 18 | van Dijke Mick | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 20.3% | n/a |
| 19 | Boichis Adrien | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 18.9% | n/a |
| 20 | Theuns Edward | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 6.4% | 28.3% | n/a |
| 21 | Belletta Dario | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 33.6% | n/a |
| 22 | De Longhi Lorenzo | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 25.5% | n/a |
| 23 | Buratti Nicolò | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 28.1% | n/a |
| 24 | McDonald Brody | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 28.2% | n/a |
| 25 | Giaimi Luca | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 3.2% | 23.4% | n/a |
| 26 | Pedersen Henrik | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 29.4% | n/a |
| 27 | Martín Gotzon | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 24.8% | n/a |
| 28 | Gazzoli Michele | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 16.3% | n/a |
| 29 | Maestri Mirco | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 16.3% | n/a |
| 30 | Conforti Lorenzo | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 25.9% | n/a |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magnier Paul | 32.5% | 43.7% | 27.7% | 61.0% | 73.5% | n/a |
| 2 | van Poppel Danny | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 27.1% | 62.0% | n/a |
| 3 | Teutenberg Tim Torn | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 24.3% | 62.8% | n/a |
| 4 | Zambanini Edoardo | 5.1% | 2.6% | 5.3% | 10.9% | 53.4% | n/a |
| 5 | Boichis Adrien | 5.1% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 10.9% | 44.7% | n/a |
| 6 | Molano Sebastian | 4.5% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 17.0% | 40.0% | n/a |
| 7 | Tiberi Antonio | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 10.6% | 45.3% | n/a |
| 8 | Kogut Oded | 3.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 15.5% | 44.0% | n/a |
| 9 | Politt Nils | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 6.9% | 36.9% | n/a |
| 10 | Van Wilder Ilan | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 5.0% | 32.4% | n/a |
| 11 | Wellens Tim | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 7.7% | 35.8% | n/a |
| 12 | Oliveira Rui | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 8.9% | 39.1% | n/a |
| 13 | Blikra Erlend | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 8.0% | 29.8% | n/a |
| 14 | Belletta Dario | 1.4% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 30.6% | n/a |
| 15 | Bevort Carl-Frederik | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 6.0% | 30.1% | n/a |
| 16 | Kulset Johannes | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.6% | 31.2% | n/a |
| 17 | Rajovic Dusan | 1.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 6.8% | 30.5% | n/a |
| 18 | Teuns Dylan | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 23.1% | n/a |
| 19 | van Dijke Mick | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 4.2% | 20.0% | n/a |
| 20 | Zanoncello Enrico | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 5.4% | 36.8% | n/a |
| 21 | Molenaar Alex | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 4.9% | 29.8% | n/a |
| 22 | Martinez Daniel | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 15.2% | n/a |
| 23 | Theuns Edward | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 3.5% | 16.0% | n/a |
| 24 | Izquierdo Clement | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 3.3% | 22.0% | n/a |
| 25 | Erzen Zak | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 3.8% | 39.0% | n/a |
| 26 | Darder Sergi | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 34.3% | n/a |
| 27 | Balmer Alexandre | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 19.2% | n/a |
| 28 | Donati Davide | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 3.9% | 23.6% | n/a |
| 29 | Pedersen Henrik | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 20.3% | n/a |
| 30 | Tolio Alex | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 21.4% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Main read win p | Alt: res_3 win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bevort Carl-Frederik | Uno-X Mobility | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| 2 | Gojkovic Nicolas | Pogi Team Gusto Ljubljana | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Molano Sebastian | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 5.9% | 4.5% |
| 4 | De Longhi Lorenzo | Cofidis | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| 5 | Donati Davide | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| 6 | Louvel Matis | NSN Cycling Team | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 7 | Pedersen Henrik | Uno-X Mobility | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 8 | McDonald Brody | Modern Adventure Pro Cycling | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| 9 | Bessega Gabriele | Team Polti VisitMalta | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 10 | Theuns Edward | Lidl-Trek | 0.5% | 0.8% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Main read | 1.07% | – |
| Alt: res_3 | 1.21% | – |