Cycling race predictor · CRO Race

Stage 3 — 2026-09-24

The same production stack priced under 2 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.

2 scenarios 118 riders priced models retrained 75c6e7af51 book snapshot no capture

← System overview, season boards & the full race views

The fork

2 readings of the same road

Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.

Main read

The main read — the day as the key says it goes

sprint0.50

mountain0.06

hilly0.15

rolling0.09

break0.20

TT0.00

keyed: bunch sprint 0.5 / survivor gallop 0.3 / split sprint 0.2 (written by the automated reader, not by a person) (board order by rider-type retrieval; prices unchanged)

The main board. It inherits the config-root day key and is priced on the reference set that key selects.

Top 5 (blend): Magnier Paul 55.6%; van Poppel Danny 5.7%; Blikra Erlend 4.9%; Molano Sebastian 4.5%; Teutenberg Tim Torn 4.4%

Alt: res_3

The other branch — a reduced bunch sprint

sprint0.00

mountain0.29

hilly0.01

rolling0.55

break0.15

TT0.00

keyed: survivor gallop (written by the automated reader, not by a person) (board order by rider-type retrieval; prices unchanged)

The alternate branch, chosen by the driver because the day key carries weight in a second family (a sprint off a hard finale). It is priced as if that shape were certain, so the two boards bracket the read.

Top 5 (blend): Magnier Paul 11.6%; Tiberi Antonio 10.5%; van Poppel Danny 8.5%; Zambanini Edoardo 7.7%; Van Wilder Ilan 6.7%

The board

Win probabilities, scenario by scenario

Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.

Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Main read 100%, Alt: res_3 97% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.

Rider	Team	Main read	Alt: res_3	Book odds	Book devig	Max edge
Magnier Paul	Soudal Quick-Step	55.6%	11.6%	n/a	–	–
Tiberi Antonio	Bahrain Victorious	0.4%	10.5%	n/a	–	–
van Poppel Danny	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	5.7%	8.5%	n/a	–	–
Zambanini Edoardo	Bahrain Victorious	1.1%	7.7%	n/a	–	–
Van Wilder Ilan	Soudal Quick-Step	0.1%	6.7%	n/a	–	–
Boichis Adrien	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	1.2%	5.7%	n/a	–	–
Teutenberg Tim Torn	Lidl-Trek	4.4%	5.4%	n/a	–	–
Blikra Erlend	Uno-X Mobility	4.9%	0.2%	n/a	–	–
Wellens Tim	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	0.2%	4.7%	n/a	–	–
Molano Sebastian	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	4.5%	0.4%	n/a	–	–
Kogut Oded	NSN Cycling Team	4.1%	0.2%	n/a	–	–
Politt Nils	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	0.3%	4.0%	n/a	–	–
Martinez Daniel	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	0.1%	2.7%	n/a	–	–
Teuns Dylan	Cofidis	0.1%	2.5%	n/a	–	–
Rajovic Dusan	Solution Tech-NIPPO-Rali	2.4%	0.1%	n/a	–	–
Kulset Johannes	Uno-X Mobility	0.1%	2.4%	n/a	–	–
Zanoncello Enrico	Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber	2.0%	0.2%	n/a	–	–
van Dijke Mick	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	0.7%	1.8%	n/a	–	–
Donati Davide	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	1.5%	0.2%	n/a	–	–
Belletta Dario	Team Polti VisitMalta	0.6%	1.3%	n/a	–	–
Darder Sergi	Caja Rural-Seguros RGA	1.2%	0.3%	n/a	–	–
Oliveira Rui	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	1.1%	0.4%	n/a	–	–
Bevort Carl-Frederik	Uno-X Mobility	0.8%	1.0%	n/a	–	–

The main read — the day as the key says it goes — top 30, all heads

#	Rider	Blend	Cascade	LambdaRank	Podium	Top 15	Book odds
1	Magnier Paul	55.6%	50.2%	57.0%	64.5%	74.3%	n/a
2	van Poppel Danny	5.7%	7.0%	5.4%	22.2%	54.1%	n/a
3	Blikra Erlend	4.9%	7.8%	4.1%	22.3%	42.9%	n/a
4	Molano Sebastian	4.5%	5.2%	4.4%	16.0%	32.9%	n/a
5	Teutenberg Tim Torn	4.4%	4.5%	4.4%	17.9%	54.7%	n/a
6	Kogut Oded	4.1%	5.4%	3.8%	18.7%	38.7%	n/a
7	Rajovic Dusan	2.4%	2.5%	2.4%	8.9%	28.1%	n/a
8	Zanoncello Enrico	2.0%	1.3%	2.1%	6.9%	33.7%	n/a
9	Donati Davide	1.5%	1.9%	1.4%	7.6%	30.7%	n/a
10	Boichis Adrien	1.2%	1.2%	1.3%	3.7%	23.9%	n/a
11	Darder Sergi	1.2%	0.8%	1.3%	4.9%	45.2%	n/a
12	Zambanini Edoardo	1.1%	0.8%	1.2%	3.9%	30.9%	n/a
13	Oliveira Rui	1.1%	1.4%	1.0%	7.0%	36.0%	n/a
14	Erzen Zak	0.8%	0.9%	0.8%	5.5%	34.6%	n/a
15	Bevort Carl-Frederik	0.8%	0.6%	0.8%	4.6%	38.7%	n/a
16	van Dijke Mick	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%	3.5%	25.8%	n/a
17	Viviani Attilio	0.6%	0.5%	0.6%	3.1%	22.3%	n/a
18	Belletta Dario	0.6%	0.5%	0.6%	2.1%	31.9%	n/a
19	Molenaar Alex	0.5%	0.3%	0.5%	2.3%	31.6%	n/a
20	Theuns Edward	0.4%	0.2%	0.4%	2.2%	21.7%	n/a
21	Tiberi Antonio	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%	1.5%	14.2%	n/a
22	Skerl Daniel	0.3%	0.7%	0.2%	4.2%	18.9%	n/a
23	Politt Nils	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	0.9%	10.3%	n/a
24	Buratti Nicolò	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	1.2%	22.8%	n/a
25	Martín Gotzon	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	1.3%	21.9%	n/a
26	Pedersen Henrik	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	1.4%	24.8%	n/a
27	Wellens Tim	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.5%	5.3%	n/a
28	De Longhi Lorenzo	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	1.1%	12.0%	n/a
29	Maestri Mirco	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%	9.6%	n/a
30	Izquierdo Clement	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	1.4%	13.0%	n/a

The other branch — a reduced bunch sprint — top 30, all heads

#	Rider	Blend	Cascade	LambdaRank	Podium	Top 15	Book odds
1	Magnier Paul	11.6%	23.9%	8.9%	37.0%	52.1%	n/a
2	Tiberi Antonio	10.5%	10.3%	10.8%	27.0%	68.6%	n/a
3	van Poppel Danny	8.5%	9.4%	8.5%	23.5%	51.7%	n/a
4	Zambanini Edoardo	7.7%	5.4%	8.5%	17.8%	58.0%	n/a
5	Van Wilder Ilan	6.7%	5.3%	7.2%	15.7%	50.1%	n/a
6	Boichis Adrien	5.7%	3.2%	6.5%	13.1%	41.0%	n/a
7	Teutenberg Tim Torn	5.4%	7.0%	5.2%	19.8%	52.5%	n/a
8	Wellens Tim	4.7%	3.4%	5.1%	13.7%	50.6%	n/a
9	Politt Nils	4.0%	1.9%	4.7%	8.8%	40.8%	n/a
10	Martinez Daniel	2.7%	3.2%	2.7%	13.7%	40.3%	n/a
11	Teuns Dylan	2.5%	1.7%	2.8%	6.4%	36.7%	n/a
12	Kulset Johannes	2.4%	1.7%	2.6%	7.0%	40.2%	n/a
13	van Dijke Mick	1.8%	1.8%	1.8%	7.2%	31.7%	n/a
14	Belletta Dario	1.3%	0.5%	1.5%	2.7%	32.0%	n/a
15	Bevort Carl-Frederik	1.0%	1.0%	1.1%	3.5%	28.2%	n/a
16	Tolio Alex	0.9%	0.3%	1.1%	1.8%	28.1%	n/a
17	Molenaar Alex	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%	3.9%	31.2%	n/a
18	Fabbro Matteo	0.8%	0.3%	1.0%	1.3%	21.1%	n/a
19	Balmer Alexandre	0.8%	0.8%	0.9%	2.9%	25.1%	n/a
20	Maisonobe Sam	0.8%	0.6%	0.8%	2.1%	19.9%	n/a
21	Pedersen Henrik	0.7%	0.9%	0.7%	3.9%	32.4%	n/a
22	Agirre Jon	0.7%	0.3%	0.8%	1.9%	28.9%	n/a
23	Izquierdo Clement	0.6%	0.9%	0.6%	3.9%	23.8%	n/a
24	Muñoz Francisco	0.5%	0.3%	0.6%	2.0%	24.1%	n/a
25	Pesenti Thomas	0.5%	0.2%	0.6%	1.7%	22.1%	n/a
26	Sorarrain Gorka	0.5%	0.2%	0.6%	1.4%	19.6%	n/a
27	Martín Gotzon	0.5%	0.2%	0.6%	1.5%	20.6%	n/a
28	Cras Steff	0.5%	0.4%	0.5%	2.3%	16.1%	n/a
29	Bagatin Christian	0.5%	0.4%	0.5%	0.9%	13.9%	n/a
30	Bonneu Kamiel	0.5%	0.2%	0.5%	1.5%	30.6%	n/a

After the stage

Results — won by Svarre Tobias

Pos	Rider	Team	Main read win p	Alt: res_3 win p
1	Svarre Tobias	Uno-X Mobility	0.0%	0.1%
2	Tiberi Antonio	Bahrain Victorious	0.4%	10.5%
3	Wellens Tim	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	0.2%	4.7%
4	Boichis Adrien	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	1.2%	5.7%
5	Maisonobe Sam	Cofidis	0.1%	0.8%
6	Herzog Emil	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	0.0%	0.3%
7	Kulset Johannes	Uno-X Mobility	0.1%	2.4%
8	Teuns Dylan	Cofidis	0.1%	2.5%
9	Cras Steff	Soudal Quick-Step	0.0%	0.5%
10	Zambanini Edoardo	Bahrain Victorious	1.1%	7.7%

Scenario scoring — probability given to the actual winner

Scenario	Blend win p	Book devig
Main read	0.02%	–
Alt: res_3	0.11%	–