Cycling race predictor · CRO Race

Stage 4 — 2026-09-25

The same production stack priced under 2 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.

2 scenarios 110 riders priced models retrained 75c6e7af51 book snapshot no capture

← System overview, season boards & the full race views

The fork

2 readings of the same road

Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.

Main read

The main read — the day as the key says it goes

sprint0.63

mountain0.02

hilly0.32

rolling0.01

break0.02

TT0.00

keyed: bunch sprint 0.5 / survivor gallop 0.3 / GC day 0.2 (written by the automated reader, not by a person) (board order by rider-type retrieval; prices unchanged)

The main board. It inherits the config-root day key and is priced on the reference set that key selects.

Top 5 (blend): Magnier Paul 60.1%; Blikra Erlend 8.4%; Kogut Oded 6.1%; Rajovic Dusan 4.6%; Teutenberg Tim Torn 3.6%

Alt: res_3

The other branch — a reduced bunch sprint

sprint0.01

mountain0.22

hilly0.02

rolling0.45

break0.30

TT0.00

keyed: survivor gallop (written by the automated reader, not by a person) (board order by rider-type retrieval; prices unchanged)

The alternate branch, chosen by the driver because the day key carries weight in a second family (a sprint off a hard finale). It is priced as if that shape were certain, so the two boards bracket the read.

Top 5 (blend): Magnier Paul 12.1%; Tiberi Antonio 7.8%; Zambanini Edoardo 7.2%; Boichis Adrien 6.0%; Teutenberg Tim Torn 5.3%

The board

Win probabilities, scenario by scenario

Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.

Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Main read 100%, Alt: res_3 81% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.

Rider	Team	Main read	Alt: res_3	Book odds	Book devig	Max edge
Magnier Paul	Soudal Quick-Step	60.1%	12.1%	n/a	–	–
Blikra Erlend	Uno-X Mobility	8.4%	0.2%	n/a	–	–
Tiberi Antonio	Bahrain Victorious	0.1%	7.8%	n/a	–	–
Zambanini Edoardo	Bahrain Victorious	0.7%	7.2%	n/a	–	–
Kogut Oded	NSN Cycling Team	6.1%	0.8%	n/a	–	–
Boichis Adrien	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	0.6%	6.0%	n/a	–	–
Teutenberg Tim Torn	Lidl-Trek	3.6%	5.3%	n/a	–	–
Van Wilder Ilan	Soudal Quick-Step	0.0%	5.0%	n/a	–	–
Rajovic Dusan	Solution Tech-NIPPO-Rali	4.6%	0.2%	n/a	–	–
Politt Nils	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	0.1%	3.7%	n/a	–	–
Wellens Tim	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	0.0%	3.7%	n/a	–	–
Donati Davide	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	2.7%	0.2%	n/a	–	–
Zanoncello Enrico	Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber	2.5%	0.4%	n/a	–	–
Teuns Dylan	Cofidis	0.0%	2.2%	n/a	–	–
Martinez Daniel	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	0.0%	2.0%	n/a	–	–
Kulset Johannes	Uno-X Mobility	0.0%	1.9%	n/a	–	–
Belletta Dario	Team Polti VisitMalta	0.4%	1.4%	n/a	–	–
Molenaar Alex	Caja Rural-Seguros RGA	0.5%	1.3%	n/a	–	–
Erzen Zak	Bahrain Victorious	1.2%	0.2%	n/a	–	–
Oliveira Rui	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	1.1%	0.7%	n/a	–	–
Darder Sergi	Caja Rural-Seguros RGA	1.0%	0.4%	n/a	–	–
Bevort Carl-Frederik	Uno-X Mobility	0.8%	1.0%	n/a	–	–

The main read — the day as the key says it goes — top 30, all heads

#	Rider	Blend	Cascade	LambdaRank	Podium	Top 15	Book odds
1	Magnier Paul	60.1%	54.6%	61.4%	72.5%	83.7%	n/a
2	Blikra Erlend	8.4%	11.0%	7.8%	29.3%	58.5%	n/a
3	Kogut Oded	6.1%	6.2%	6.1%	22.6%	56.8%	n/a
4	Rajovic Dusan	4.6%	5.5%	4.4%	16.8%	52.5%	n/a
5	Teutenberg Tim Torn	3.6%	3.6%	3.6%	16.6%	63.3%	n/a
6	Donati Davide	2.7%	3.6%	2.5%	11.5%	50.9%	n/a
7	Zanoncello Enrico	2.5%	1.4%	2.8%	9.6%	54.6%	n/a
8	Erzen Zak	1.2%	1.0%	1.2%	5.6%	45.6%	n/a
9	Oliveira Rui	1.1%	0.8%	1.2%	4.4%	32.1%	n/a
10	Darder Sergi	1.0%	0.8%	1.1%	4.7%	53.8%	n/a
11	Viviani Attilio	0.8%	0.6%	0.9%	3.9%	32.6%	n/a
12	Bevort Carl-Frederik	0.8%	1.1%	0.8%	4.4%	41.7%	n/a
13	Zambanini Edoardo	0.7%	0.5%	0.7%	7.4%	30.6%	n/a
14	Boichis Adrien	0.6%	0.8%	0.6%	5.6%	20.8%	n/a
15	Molenaar Alex	0.5%	0.7%	0.4%	3.1%	41.7%	n/a
16	Belletta Dario	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	1.9%	34.9%	n/a
17	Theuns Edward	0.4%	0.5%	0.4%	3.2%	26.3%	n/a
18	Skerl Daniel	0.4%	0.9%	0.2%	3.9%	23.9%	n/a
19	Buratti Nicolò	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	1.7%	29.9%	n/a
20	De Longhi Lorenzo	0.3%	0.9%	0.2%	3.3%	28.6%	n/a
21	Pedersen Henrik	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%	1.4%	23.7%	n/a
22	McDonald Brody	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	1.1%	39.9%	n/a
23	Giaimi Luca	0.2%	0.6%	0.1%	1.5%	16.9%	n/a
24	Martín Gotzon	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	1.3%	27.2%	n/a
25	Gazzoli Michele	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.8%	24.6%	n/a
26	Conforti Lorenzo	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	1.1%	25.6%	n/a
27	Maestri Mirco	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.6%	11.5%	n/a
28	Barceló Fernando	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	1.0%	10.3%	n/a
29	Tiberi Antonio	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	1.1%	13.3%	n/a
30	Peñuela Francisco	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.6%	18.4%	n/a

The other branch — a reduced bunch sprint — top 30, all heads

#	Rider	Blend	Cascade	LambdaRank	Podium	Top 15	Book odds
1	Magnier Paul	12.1%	25.1%	11.8%	37.4%	48.6%	n/a
2	Tiberi Antonio	7.8%	5.9%	10.1%	25.7%	76.0%	n/a
3	Zambanini Edoardo	7.2%	4.6%	9.5%	16.3%	63.7%	n/a
4	Boichis Adrien	6.0%	4.9%	7.6%	17.4%	54.9%	n/a
5	Teutenberg Tim Torn	5.3%	5.3%	6.5%	16.8%	44.4%	n/a
6	Van Wilder Ilan	5.0%	4.2%	6.4%	12.4%	45.1%	n/a
7	Politt Nils	3.7%	1.8%	5.1%	7.3%	30.9%	n/a
8	Wellens Tim	3.7%	2.8%	4.8%	15.8%	63.1%	n/a
9	Teuns Dylan	2.2%	1.8%	2.9%	7.5%	48.0%	n/a
10	Martinez Daniel	2.0%	2.6%	2.3%	9.7%	32.3%	n/a
11	Kulset Johannes	1.9%	1.7%	2.4%	6.6%	44.7%	n/a
12	Belletta Dario	1.4%	0.5%	2.0%	2.7%	28.9%	n/a
13	Molenaar Alex	1.3%	1.6%	1.5%	6.0%	38.2%	n/a
14	Bevort Carl-Frederik	1.0%	1.0%	1.3%	4.3%	28.1%	n/a
15	Tolio Alex	0.9%	0.4%	1.2%	1.5%	34.0%	n/a
16	Izquierdo Clement	0.9%	1.7%	0.9%	5.2%	26.3%	n/a
17	Kogut Oded	0.8%	0.7%	1.1%	3.1%	9.8%	n/a
18	Fabbro Matteo	0.7%	0.2%	1.1%	0.8%	11.5%	n/a
19	Balmer Alexandre	0.7%	0.8%	0.9%	2.5%	20.0%	n/a
20	Oliveira Rui	0.7%	0.8%	0.9%	4.9%	21.1%	n/a
21	Pedersen Henrik	0.7%	0.9%	0.8%	3.8%	25.0%	n/a
22	Theuns Edward	0.6%	0.2%	0.9%	2.6%	13.1%	n/a
23	Cras Steff	0.6%	0.8%	0.6%	2.7%	27.4%	n/a
24	Agirre Jon	0.5%	0.3%	0.7%	1.3%	33.0%	n/a
25	Pesenti Thomas	0.5%	0.2%	0.7%	2.2%	18.7%	n/a
26	Maisonobe Sam	0.5%	0.5%	0.6%	1.8%	23.2%	n/a
27	Martín Gotzon	0.5%	0.2%	0.7%	1.4%	19.4%	n/a
28	Sorarrain Gorka	0.5%	0.2%	0.7%	1.0%	14.0%	n/a
29	Muñoz Francisco	0.5%	0.2%	0.7%	1.8%	28.0%	n/a
30	Meurisse Xandro	0.5%	0.1%	0.7%	0.7%	29.2%	n/a

After the stage

Results — won by Martinez Daniel

Pos	Rider	Team	Main read win p	Alt: res_3 win p
1	Martinez Daniel	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	0.0%	2.0%
2	Vervaeke Louis	Soudal Quick-Step	0.0%	0.2%
3	Novak Domen	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	0.0%	0.0%
4	De Gendt Aimé	Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team	0.0%	0.2%
5	Maisonobe Sam	Cofidis	0.1%	0.5%
6	Van Wilder Ilan	Soudal Quick-Step	0.0%	5.0%
7	Zambanini Edoardo	Bahrain Victorious	0.7%	7.2%
8	Pesenti Thomas	Team Polti VisitMalta	0.0%	0.5%
9	Giuliano Dario	Team Polti VisitMalta	0.0%	0.3%
10	Pidcock Joseph	Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team	0.0%	0.0%

Scenario scoring — probability given to the actual winner

Scenario	Blend win p	Book devig
Main read	0.01%	–
Alt: res_3	2.01%	–