Cycling race predictor · CRO Race

Stage 5 — 2026-09-26

The same production stack priced under 2 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.

2 scenarios 104 riders priced models retrained 75c6e7af51 book snapshot no capture

← System overview, season boards & the full race views

The fork

2 readings of the same road

Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.

Main read

The main read — the day as the key says it goes

sprint0.00

mountain0.46

hilly0.00

rolling0.53

break0.01

TT0.00

keyed: GC day 0.4 / hard puncheur day 0.3 / mountain escape 0.2 (written by the automated reader, not by a person) (board order by rider-type retrieval; prices unchanged)

The main board. It inherits the config-root day key and is priced on the reference set that key selects.

Top 5 (blend): Van Wilder Ilan 19.4%; Tiberi Antonio 15.3%; Wellens Tim 7.7%; Boichis Adrien 5.4%; Zambanini Edoardo 4.9%

Alt: res_4

The other branch — a mountain day won from the escape

sprint0.01

mountain0.27

hilly0.17

rolling0.54

break0.02

TT0.00

keyed: hard puncheur day (written by the automated reader, not by a person) (board order by rider-type retrieval; prices unchanged)

The alternate branch, chosen by the driver because the day key carries weight in a second family (the escape). It is priced as if that shape were certain, so the two boards bracket the read.

Top 5 (blend): Van Wilder Ilan 17.0%; Tiberi Antonio 11.7%; Zambanini Edoardo 6.7%; Boichis Adrien 6.3%; Magnier Paul 5.7%

The board

Win probabilities, scenario by scenario

Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.

Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Main read 83%, Alt: res_4 85% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.

Rider	Team	Main read	Alt: res_4	Book odds	Book devig	Max edge
Van Wilder Ilan	Soudal Quick-Step	19.4%	17.0%	n/a	–	–
Tiberi Antonio	Bahrain Victorious	15.3%	11.7%	n/a	–	–
Wellens Tim	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	7.7%	5.3%	n/a	–	–
Zambanini Edoardo	Bahrain Victorious	4.9%	6.7%	n/a	–	–
Boichis Adrien	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	5.4%	6.3%	n/a	–	–
Magnier Paul	Soudal Quick-Step	0.8%	5.7%	n/a	–	–
Martinez Daniel	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	4.7%	3.0%	n/a	–	–
Kulset Johannes	Uno-X Mobility	4.1%	4.0%	n/a	–	–
Teutenberg Tim Torn	Lidl-Trek	1.1%	3.2%	n/a	–	–
Teuns Dylan	Cofidis	2.9%	2.3%	n/a	–	–
Politt Nils	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	1.8%	1.9%	n/a	–	–
Belletta Dario	Team Polti VisitMalta	0.9%	1.6%	n/a	–	–
Tolio Alex	Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber	1.4%	1.2%	n/a	–	–
Agirre Jon	Euskaltel-Euskadi	1.1%	0.8%	n/a	–	–
Maisonobe Sam	Cofidis	1.0%	0.9%	n/a	–	–

The main read — the day as the key says it goes — top 30, all heads

#	Rider	Blend	Cascade	LambdaRank	Podium	Top 15	Book odds
1	Van Wilder Ilan	19.4%	19.0%	23.4%	37.7%	75.2%	n/a
2	Tiberi Antonio	15.3%	12.2%	19.2%	39.0%	85.5%	n/a
3	Wellens Tim	7.7%	9.2%	8.9%	27.3%	82.4%	n/a
4	Boichis Adrien	5.4%	6.6%	6.2%	21.0%	62.3%	n/a
5	Zambanini Edoardo	4.9%	2.7%	6.5%	12.3%	56.1%	n/a
6	Martinez Daniel	4.7%	4.2%	5.8%	16.4%	54.8%	n/a
7	Kulset Johannes	4.1%	3.6%	5.1%	13.5%	72.4%	n/a
8	Teuns Dylan	2.9%	3.4%	3.4%	10.7%	72.2%	n/a
9	Politt Nils	1.8%	1.1%	2.3%	4.2%	21.7%	n/a
10	Tolio Alex	1.4%	1.1%	1.8%	4.7%	52.0%	n/a
11	Agirre Jon	1.1%	0.9%	1.4%	3.5%	50.7%	n/a
12	Teutenberg Tim Torn	1.1%	1.7%	1.2%	4.1%	16.2%	n/a
13	Maisonobe Sam	1.0%	2.6%	0.8%	9.4%	58.0%	n/a
14	Parra José Félix	0.9%	0.9%	1.1%	3.3%	38.3%	n/a
15	Belletta Dario	0.9%	0.4%	1.1%	2.2%	20.4%	n/a
16	Magnier Paul	0.8%	0.9%	0.9%	2.8%	6.2%	n/a
17	Cras Steff	0.7%	1.5%	0.6%	6.2%	49.1%	n/a
18	Balmer Alexandre	0.7%	0.7%	0.8%	3.2%	21.3%	n/a
19	Herzog Emil	0.4%	0.9%	0.4%	4.2%	42.5%	n/a
20	Izquierdo Clement	0.4%	0.7%	0.4%	3.2%	25.2%	n/a
21	Vervaeke Louis	0.4%	1.5%	0.2%	4.6%	34.7%	n/a
22	Meurisse Xandro	0.3%	0.1%	0.5%	0.9%	31.9%	n/a
23	Pesenti Thomas	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%	2.1%	18.8%	n/a
24	Bax Sjoerd	0.3%	0.7%	0.3%	2.0%	13.0%	n/a
25	Molenaar Alex	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%	2.3%	26.5%	n/a
26	Kämna Lennard	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%	1.3%	8.6%	n/a
27	Muñoz Francisco	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	1.5%	22.6%	n/a
28	Sorarrain Gorka	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	0.7%	11.0%	n/a
29	Pedersen Henrik	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%	1.3%	7.6%	n/a
30	Juaristi Txomin	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.9%	8.9%	n/a

The other branch — a mountain day won from the escape — top 30, all heads

#	Rider	Blend	Cascade	LambdaRank	Podium	Top 15	Book odds
1	Van Wilder Ilan	17.0%	18.0%	19.8%	36.6%	72.2%	n/a
2	Tiberi Antonio	11.7%	9.6%	14.3%	36.1%	85.0%	n/a
3	Zambanini Edoardo	6.7%	4.0%	8.6%	16.4%	64.5%	n/a
4	Boichis Adrien	6.3%	8.1%	7.0%	25.7%	70.3%	n/a
5	Magnier Paul	5.7%	8.9%	6.0%	17.3%	27.8%	n/a
6	Wellens Tim	5.3%	5.6%	6.1%	22.2%	83.0%	n/a
7	Kulset Johannes	4.0%	2.9%	5.0%	10.9%	68.7%	n/a
8	Teutenberg Tim Torn	3.2%	2.8%	3.9%	9.2%	29.5%	n/a
9	Martinez Daniel	3.0%	2.9%	3.6%	13.9%	47.9%	n/a
10	Teuns Dylan	2.3%	2.3%	2.7%	9.2%	66.4%	n/a
11	Politt Nils	1.9%	1.4%	2.4%	5.1%	28.5%	n/a
12	Belletta Dario	1.6%	0.9%	2.0%	3.2%	32.1%	n/a
13	Tolio Alex	1.2%	0.9%	1.5%	3.8%	49.7%	n/a
14	Maisonobe Sam	0.9%	2.0%	0.8%	7.5%	55.7%	n/a
15	Agirre Jon	0.8%	0.3%	1.1%	2.6%	39.5%	n/a
16	Molenaar Alex	0.7%	0.9%	0.8%	4.3%	38.6%	n/a
17	Balmer Alexandre	0.7%	0.7%	0.8%	2.1%	21.2%	n/a
18	Cras Steff	0.6%	1.4%	0.6%	5.3%	46.9%	n/a
19	Izquierdo Clement	0.6%	1.0%	0.6%	4.0%	25.2%	n/a
20	Pesenti Thomas	0.5%	0.2%	0.7%	2.1%	23.0%	n/a
21	Parra José Félix	0.5%	0.3%	0.6%	1.9%	27.5%	n/a
22	Martín Gotzon	0.5%	0.3%	0.6%	1.3%	19.1%	n/a
23	Bevort Carl-Frederik	0.4%	0.1%	0.6%	5.1%	14.6%	n/a
24	Herzog Emil	0.4%	0.8%	0.4%	4.5%	39.7%	n/a
25	Sorarrain Gorka	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%	0.8%	14.1%	n/a
26	Meurisse Xandro	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%	0.9%	33.9%	n/a
27	Muñoz Francisco	0.4%	0.2%	0.5%	1.3%	24.2%	n/a
28	Vervaeke Louis	0.3%	1.3%	0.2%	4.3%	33.3%	n/a
29	Pedersen Henrik	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	1.6%	10.8%	n/a
30	Theuns Edward	0.3%	0.1%	0.4%	1.2%	8.1%	n/a

After the stage

Results — won by Magnier Paul

Pos	Rider	Team	Main read win p	Alt: res_4 win p
1	Magnier Paul	Soudal Quick-Step	0.8%	5.7%
2	Oliveira Rui	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	0.1%	0.3%
3	Teutenberg Tim Torn	Lidl-Trek	1.1%	3.2%
4	Bevort Carl-Frederik	Uno-X Mobility	0.1%	0.4%
5	Belletta Dario	Team Polti VisitMalta	0.9%	1.6%
6	Zambanini Edoardo	Bahrain Victorious	4.9%	6.7%
7	Izquierdo Clement	Cofidis	0.4%	0.6%
8	Tiberi Antonio	Bahrain Victorious	15.3%	11.7%
9	Darder Sergi	Caja Rural-Seguros RGA	0.1%	0.2%
10	Pesenti Thomas	Team Polti VisitMalta	0.3%	0.5%

Scenario scoring — probability given to the actual winner

Scenario	Blend win p	Book devig
Main read	0.77%	–
Alt: res_4	5.73%	–