One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
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The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals own history 115% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merlier Tim | Soudal Quick-Step | 16.4% | 29.4% | 11.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Meeus Jordi | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 12.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Pithie Laurence | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | n/a | – | – |
| De Lie Arnaud | Lotto-Intermarché | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Philipsen Jasper | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Girmay Biniam | NSN Cycling Team | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Wærenskjold Søren | Uno-X Mobility | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Vermeersch Florian | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Gruel Thibaud | Groupama-FDJ United | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Vernon Ethan | NSN Cycling Team | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Nys Thibau | Lidl-Trek | 2.1% | 3.3% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Lamperti Luke | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Del Grosso Tibor | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| van Poppel Danny | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Fretin Milan | Cofidis | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Pluimers Rick | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 1.6% | 0.3% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Askey Lewis | NSN Cycling Team | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Bittner Pavel | Team Picnic PostNL | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Turgis Anthony | Team TotalEnergies | 1.4% | 0.2% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Berckmoes Jenno | Lotto-Intermarché | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Kanter Max | XDS Astana Team | 1.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Kubis Lukas | Unibet Rose Rockets | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Adrià Roger | Movistar Team | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Mozzato Luca | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merlier Tim | 16.4% | 29.4% | 11.0% | 43.0% | 59.1% | n/a |
| 2 | Meeus Jordi | 12.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 25.4% | 50.5% | n/a |
| 3 | Pithie Laurence | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 24.0% | 56.7% | n/a |
| 4 | De Lie Arnaud | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 20.3% | 46.0% | n/a |
| 5 | Philipsen Jasper | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 18.6% | 45.3% | n/a |
| 6 | Girmay Biniam | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 14.2% | 41.2% | n/a |
| 7 | Wærenskjold Søren | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 8.7% | 30.7% | n/a |
| 8 | Vermeersch Florian | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 8.8% | 32.0% | n/a |
| 9 | Gruel Thibaud | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 8.8% | 38.6% | n/a |
| 10 | Vernon Ethan | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 6.8% | 24.1% | n/a |
| 11 | Nys Thibau | 2.1% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 9.6% | 33.8% | n/a |
| 12 | Lamperti Luke | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 5.2% | 28.9% | n/a |
| 13 | Del Grosso Tibor | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 5.2% | 30.5% | n/a |
| 14 | van Poppel Danny | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 7.6% | 41.4% | n/a |
| 15 | Fretin Milan | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 7.2% | 35.6% | n/a |
| 16 | Pluimers Rick | 1.6% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 34.1% | n/a |
| 17 | Askey Lewis | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 8.2% | 39.7% | n/a |
| 18 | Bittner Pavel | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 8.3% | 34.2% | n/a |
| 19 | Turgis Anthony | 1.4% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 27.8% | n/a |
| 20 | Berckmoes Jenno | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 7.1% | 44.1% | n/a |
| 21 | Kanter Max | 1.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 9.2% | 33.0% | n/a |
| 22 | Kubis Lukas | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 4.2% | 36.5% | n/a |
| 23 | Adrià Roger | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 25.8% | n/a |
| 24 | Mozzato Luca | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 3.7% | 29.1% | n/a |
| 25 | Cosnefroy Benoît | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 27.3% | n/a |
| 26 | Teutenberg Tim Torn | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 4.4% | 24.2% | n/a |
| 27 | Morgado António | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 22.2% | n/a |
| 28 | Grisel Matys | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 30.8% | n/a |
| 29 | Teunissen Mike | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 3.2% | 29.3% | n/a |
| 30 | Trentin Matteo | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 34.1% | n/a |
After the race
| Pos | Rider | Team | Own history win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pedersen Henrik | Uno-X Mobility | 0.1% |
| 2 | Pithie Laurence | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 9.8% |
| 3 | Vermeersch Florian | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 3.7% |
| 4 | Berckmoes Jenno | Lotto-Intermarché | 1.4% |
| 5 | Teutenberg Tim Torn | Lidl-Trek | 1.0% |
| 6 | Gruel Thibaud | Groupama-FDJ United | 2.5% |
| 7 | Kubis Lukas | Unibet Rose Rockets | 1.2% |
| 8 | De Gendt Aimé | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 0.1% |
| 9 | Lamperti Luke | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.9% |
| 10 | Huens Axel | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.4% |
| Reading | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own history | 0.10% | 0.04% | 0.10% | – |
Result rows are joined to the boards by FirstCycling rider id through the riders table. 0 row(s) needed the normalised-name fallback; 1 finisher(s) could not be matched at all.