The same production stack priced under 1 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Hindsight (post-hoc) 105% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rondel Mathys | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 22.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Godon Dorian | Netcompany INEOS | 14.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Crescioli Ludovico | Team Polti VisitMalta | 13.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS | 10.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Fancellu Alessandro | MBH Bank Ballan Telecom Fort | 5.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Castellon Jan | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 4.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Berasategi Xabier | Euskaltel-Euskadi | 3.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Ulissi Diego | XDS Astana Development Team | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Poels Wout | Unibet Rose Rockets | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Juaristi Txomin | Euskaltel-Euskadi | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Verre Alessandro | MBH Bank Ballan Telecom Fort | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Turconi Filippo | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Pozzovivo Domenico | Solution Tech-NIPPO-Rali | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Tolio Alex | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Conci Nicola | XDS Astana Development Team | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Kajamini Florian | MBH Bank Ballan Telecom Fort | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rondel Mathys | 22.9% | 15.4% | 23.6% | 33.2% | 86.5% | n/a |
| 2 | Godon Dorian | 14.0% | 26.1% | 10.3% | 41.4% | 62.2% | n/a |
| 3 | Crescioli Ludovico | 13.6% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 28.2% | 80.0% | n/a |
| 4 | Vauquelin Kévin | 10.2% | 19.7% | 7.3% | 37.3% | 79.5% | n/a |
| 5 | Fancellu Alessandro | 5.4% | 2.4% | 5.8% | 16.6% | 69.4% | n/a |
| 6 | Castellon Jan | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 11.6% | 62.4% | n/a |
| 7 | Berasategi Xabier | 3.0% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 7.3% | 40.2% | n/a |
| 8 | Ulissi Diego | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 14.8% | 63.4% | n/a |
| 9 | Poels Wout | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 7.2% | 52.6% | n/a |
| 10 | Juaristi Txomin | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 4.8% | 29.2% | n/a |
| 11 | Verre Alessandro | 1.7% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 6.6% | n/a |
| 12 | Turconi Filippo | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 5.2% | 46.7% | n/a |
| 13 | Pozzovivo Domenico | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 6.9% | 62.9% | n/a |
| 14 | Tolio Alex | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 46.4% | n/a |
| 15 | Conci Nicola | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 9.7% | 56.0% | n/a |
| 16 | Kajamini Florian | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 8.9% | n/a |
| 17 | Jasch Lennart | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 4.0% | 40.0% | n/a |
| 18 | Eiking Odd Christian | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 13.0% | n/a |
| 19 | Masnada Fausto | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 17.5% | n/a |
| 20 | Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 4.7% | 49.2% | n/a |
| 21 | Ballabio Giacomo | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 3.5% | 45.4% | n/a |
| 22 | Barceló Fernando | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 23.2% | n/a |
| 23 | Murguialday Jokin | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 21.2% | n/a |
| 24 | Tsarenko Kyrylo | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 14.5% | n/a |
| 25 | Dati Tommaso | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 2.9% | 15.4% | n/a |
| 26 | Garibbo Nicolo | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 4.3% | 42.0% | n/a |
| 27 | Bais Mattia | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 4.5% | 38.6% | n/a |
| 28 | Sutton Louis | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 24.0% | n/a |
| 29 | Peter Jannis | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 23.4% | n/a |
| 30 | Martinelli Alessio | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 12.9% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jasch Lennart | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 0.9% |
| 2 | Godon Dorian | Netcompany INEOS | 14.0% |
| 3 | Scalco Matteo | XDS Astana Development Team | 0.2% |
| 4 | Dati Tommaso | Team UKYO | 0.5% |
| 5 | Garibbo Nicolo | Team UKYO | 0.5% |
| 6 | Crescioli Ludovico | Team Polti VisitMalta | 13.6% |
| 7 | Lorello Riccardo | SC Padovani Polo Cherry Bank | 0.0% |
| 8 | Ballabio Giacomo | Team Vorarlberg | 0.6% |
| 9 | Barbuto Riccardo | Team Technipes #inEmiliaRomagna Caffè Borbone | – |
| 10 | Berasategi Xabier | Euskaltel-Euskadi | 3.0% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 0.88% | – |