The same production stack priced under 1 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Hindsight (post-hoc) 90% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Godon Dorian | Netcompany INEOS | 10.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS | 8.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Crescioli Ludovico | Team Polti VisitMalta | 8.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Berasategi Xabier | Euskaltel-Euskadi | 6.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Fancellu Alessandro | MBH Bank Ballan Telecom Fort | 5.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Gaviria Fernando | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 3.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Castellon Jan | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 3.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Colnaghi Luca | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 3.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Turconi Filippo | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 2.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Ulissi Diego | XDS Astana Development Team | 2.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Rondel Mathys | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 2.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Tolio Alex | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Ponomar Andrii | General Store-Essegibi-F.Ili Curia | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Verre Alessandro | MBH Bank Ballan Telecom Fort | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Masnada Fausto | MBH Bank Ballan Telecom Fort | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Dati Tommaso | Team UKYO | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Bessega Tommaso | Team Polti VisitMalta | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Pattinson Tomos | EF Education-Aevolo | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Barceló Fernando | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Godon Dorian | 10.8% | 25.6% | 8.4% | 47.3% | 74.3% | n/a |
| 2 | Vauquelin Kévin | 8.9% | 13.5% | 8.8% | 27.6% | 65.1% | n/a |
| 3 | Crescioli Ludovico | 8.4% | 5.4% | 10.1% | 16.7% | 72.1% | n/a |
| 4 | Berasategi Xabier | 6.2% | 3.1% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 58.5% | n/a |
| 5 | Fancellu Alessandro | 5.0% | 2.6% | 6.2% | 13.7% | 57.5% | n/a |
| 6 | Gaviria Fernando | 3.7% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 21.6% | n/a |
| 7 | Castellon Jan | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 34.1% | n/a |
| 8 | Colnaghi Luca | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 7.9% | 35.6% | n/a |
| 9 | Turconi Filippo | 2.7% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 41.8% | n/a |
| 10 | Ulissi Diego | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 7.4% | 47.2% | n/a |
| 11 | Rondel Mathys | 2.4% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 46.7% | n/a |
| 12 | Tolio Alex | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 5.8% | 23.8% | n/a |
| 13 | Ponomar Andrii | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 21.8% | n/a |
| 14 | Verre Alessandro | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 7.9% | n/a |
| 15 | Masnada Fausto | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 6.9% | n/a |
| 16 | Dati Tommaso | 1.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 10.1% | 39.8% | n/a |
| 17 | Bessega Tommaso | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 4.4% | 36.6% | n/a |
| 18 | Pattinson Tomos | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 4.1% | 23.9% | n/a |
| 19 | Barceló Fernando | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 4.9% | 27.7% | n/a |
| 20 | Jasch Lennart | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 4.4% | 39.3% | n/a |
| 21 | Kajamini Florian | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 3.3% | n/a |
| 22 | Lastra Jonathan | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 12.1% | n/a |
| 23 | Juaristi Txomin | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 10.0% | n/a |
| 24 | Tsarenko Kyrylo | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 9.1% | n/a |
| 25 | Ballabio Giacomo | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 29.2% | n/a |
| 26 | Poels Wout | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 12.7% | n/a |
| 27 | Cantoni Andrea | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 23.1% | n/a |
| 28 | Sutton Louis | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 21.1% | n/a |
| 29 | Masciarelli Lorenzo | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 3.6% | n/a |
| 30 | Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 18.7% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | D'Aiuto Filippo | General Store-Essegibi-F.Ili Curia | 0.5% |
| 2 | Godon Dorian | Netcompany INEOS | 10.8% |
| 3 | Dati Tommaso | Team UKYO | 1.5% |
| 4 | Colnaghi Luca | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 3.2% |
| 5 | Lorello Riccardo | SC Padovani Polo Cherry Bank | 0.2% |
| 6 | Bessega Tommaso | Team Polti VisitMalta | 1.2% |
| 7 | D'Amato Andrea | Team UKYO | 0.1% |
| 8 | Crescioli Ludovico | Team Polti VisitMalta | 8.4% |
| 9 | Fancellu Alessandro | MBH Bank Ballan Telecom Fort | 5.0% |
| 10 | Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS | 8.9% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 0.46% | – |