The same production stack priced under 1 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Hindsight (post-hoc) 84% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rondel Mathys | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 14.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Crescioli Ludovico | Team Polti VisitMalta | 9.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Fancellu Alessandro | MBH Bank Ballan Telecom Fort | 6.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Castellon Jan | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 6.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS | 5.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Berasategi Xabier | Euskaltel-Euskadi | 5.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Godon Dorian | Netcompany INEOS | 4.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Tolio Alex | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 3.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Verre Alessandro | MBH Bank Ballan Telecom Fort | 3.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Poels Wout | Unibet Rose Rockets | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Masnada Fausto | MBH Bank Ballan Telecom Fort | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Ulissi Diego | XDS Astana Development Team | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Turconi Filippo | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Ponomar Andrii | General Store-Essegibi-F.Ili Curia | 1.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Kajamini Florian | MBH Bank Ballan Telecom Fort | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Pozzovivo Domenico | Solution Tech-NIPPO-Rali | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rondel Mathys | 14.0% | 11.1% | 17.5% | 29.6% | 85.4% | n/a |
| 2 | Crescioli Ludovico | 9.7% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 25.6% | 78.9% | n/a |
| 3 | Fancellu Alessandro | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 23.8% | 76.0% | n/a |
| 4 | Castellon Jan | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 18.9% | 67.1% | n/a |
| 5 | Vauquelin Kévin | 5.7% | 12.1% | 5.3% | 26.8% | 70.3% | n/a |
| 6 | Berasategi Xabier | 5.2% | 1.9% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 44.8% | n/a |
| 7 | Godon Dorian | 4.5% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 28.2% | 56.6% | n/a |
| 8 | Tolio Alex | 3.6% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 9.5% | 55.7% | n/a |
| 9 | Verre Alessandro | 3.1% | 1.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 14.0% | n/a |
| 10 | Poels Wout | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 8.2% | 53.5% | n/a |
| 11 | Masnada Fausto | 2.3% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 34.3% | n/a |
| 12 | Ulissi Diego | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 9.5% | 63.5% | n/a |
| 13 | Turconi Filippo | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 6.0% | 48.8% | n/a |
| 14 | Ponomar Andrii | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 24.9% | n/a |
| 15 | Kajamini Florian | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 6.3% | n/a |
| 16 | Pozzovivo Domenico | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 5.2% | 56.7% | n/a |
| 17 | Murguialday Jokin | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 4.5% | 39.8% | n/a |
| 18 | Jasch Lennart | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 4.6% | 45.5% | n/a |
| 19 | Juaristi Txomin | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 14.9% | n/a |
| 20 | Barceló Fernando | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 12.6% | n/a |
| 21 | Sutton Louis | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 26.0% | n/a |
| 22 | Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 46.0% | n/a |
| 23 | Bou Joan | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 18.8% | n/a |
| 24 | Lastra Jonathan | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 12.1% | n/a |
| 25 | Tsarenko Kyrylo | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 13.4% | n/a |
| 26 | Ballabio Giacomo | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 23.9% | n/a |
| 27 | Conci Nicola | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 4.0% | 46.3% | n/a |
| 28 | Cantoni Andrea | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 21.2% | n/a |
| 29 | Garibbo Nicolo | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 3.0% | 28.5% | n/a |
| 30 | Martinelli Alessio | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 6.9% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS | 5.7% |
| 2 | Rondel Mathys | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 14.0% |
| 3 | Conci Nicola | XDS Astana Development Team | 0.4% |
| 4 | Godon Dorian | Netcompany INEOS | 4.5% |
| 5 | Ulissi Diego | XDS Astana Development Team | 2.2% |
| 6 | Crescioli Ludovico | Team Polti VisitMalta | 9.7% |
| 7 | Garibbo Nicolo | Team UKYO | 0.4% |
| 8 | Turconi Filippo | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 1.8% |
| 9 | Ballabio Giacomo | Team Vorarlberg | 0.4% |
| 10 | Jasch Lennart | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 0.7% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 5.74% | – |