One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals own history 89% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Godon Dorian | Netcompany INEOS | 20.4% | 34.1% | 19.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Champoussin Clément | XDS Astana Team | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Oldani Stefano | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 5.2% | 2.1% | 6.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Plapp Lucas | Team Jayco-AlUla | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Delettre Alexandre | Team TotalEnergies | 3.6% | 1.4% | 4.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Lonardi Giovanni | Team Polti VisitMalta | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Fagundez Eric | Burgos Burpellet BH | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Gaviria Fernando | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Marcellusi Martin | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Covi Alessandro | Team Jayco-AlUla | 1.9% | 0.7% | 2.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Heiduk Kim | Netcompany INEOS | 1.8% | 0.3% | 2.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Vendrame Andrea | Team Jayco-AlUla | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Welsford Sam | Netcompany INEOS | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Colnaghi Luca | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Conci Nicola | XDS Astana Team | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Pescador Diego | Movistar Team Academy | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | n/a | – | – |
| de la Calle Hugo | Burgos Burpellet BH | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Magli Filippo | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Bonnet Thomas | Team TotalEnergies | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Delbove Joris | Team TotalEnergies | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Velasco Simone | XDS Astana Team | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Schrettl Marco | XDS Astana Team | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Godon Dorian | 20.4% | 34.1% | 19.6% | 52.2% | 76.8% | n/a |
| 2 | Champoussin Clément | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 16.0% | 47.8% | n/a |
| 3 | Oldani Stefano | 5.2% | 2.1% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 48.9% | n/a |
| 4 | Plapp Lucas | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 10.2% | 27.5% | n/a |
| 5 | Delettre Alexandre | 3.6% | 1.4% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 48.9% | n/a |
| 6 | Lonardi Giovanni | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 15.4% | 53.3% | n/a |
| 7 | Fagundez Eric | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 8.4% | 40.4% | n/a |
| 8 | Gaviria Fernando | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 8.5% | 28.3% | n/a |
| 9 | Marcellusi Martin | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 5.7% | 28.2% | n/a |
| 10 | Covi Alessandro | 1.9% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 5.6% | 41.0% | n/a |
| 11 | Heiduk Kim | 1.8% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 5.3% | 30.6% | n/a |
| 12 | Vendrame Andrea | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 9.8% | 42.9% | n/a |
| 13 | Welsford Sam | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 8.6% | 31.2% | n/a |
| 14 | Colnaghi Luca | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 5.3% | 31.4% | n/a |
| 15 | Conci Nicola | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 13.4% | n/a |
| 16 | Pescador Diego | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 6.1% | 33.6% | n/a |
| 17 | de la Calle Hugo | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 18.1% | n/a |
| 18 | Magli Filippo | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 5.2% | 36.9% | n/a |
| 19 | Bonnet Thomas | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 4.8% | 26.6% | n/a |
| 20 | Delbove Joris | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 15.5% | n/a |
| 21 | Velasco Simone | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 5.2% | 33.9% | n/a |
| 22 | Schrettl Marco | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 25.6% | n/a |
| 23 | Budzinski Marcin | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.5% | 31.5% | n/a |
| 24 | Burgaudeau Mathieu | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 4.4% | 29.0% | n/a |
| 25 | Macias Cesar | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 5.5% | 34.5% | n/a |
| 26 | Tsarenko Kyrylo | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 20.4% | n/a |
| 27 | Bagatin Christian | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 3.4% | 15.9% | n/a |
| 28 | Toneatti Davide | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 18.2% | n/a |
| 29 | Maestri Mirco | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 21.4% | n/a |
| 30 | Wang Gustav | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 2.5% | 21.3% | n/a |
After the race
| Pos | Rider | Team | Own history win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Godon Dorian | Netcompany INEOS | 20.4% |
| 2 | Colnaghi Luca | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 1.5% |
| 3 | Vendrame Andrea | Team Jayco-AlUla | 1.7% |
| 4 | Oldani Stefano | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 5.2% |
| 5 | Lonardi Giovanni | Team Polti VisitMalta | 3.5% |
| 6 | Malmberg Matias | Swatt Club | 0.5% |
| 7 | Delettre Alexandre | Team TotalEnergies | 3.6% |
| 8 | Bortoluzzi Giovanni | General Store-Essegibi-F.Ili Curia | 0.1% |
| 9 | Covi Alessandro | Team Jayco-AlUla | 1.9% |
| 10 | Masciarelli Stefano | SC Padovani Polo Cherry Bank | 0.0% |
| Reading | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own history | 20.42% | 34.10% | 19.61% | – |
Result rows are joined to the boards by FirstCycling rider id through the riders table. 0 row(s) needed the normalised-name fallback; 4 finisher(s) could not be matched at all.