One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals own history 100% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grégoire Romain | Groupama-FDJ United | 13.4% | 21.1% | 11.4% | n/a | – | – |
| McNulty Brandon | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 10.5% | 20.0% | 8.1% | 8.00 | 8.2% | +2.2pp |
| Scaroni Cristian | XDS Astana Team | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Wellens Tim | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 34.00 | 1.9% | +4.2pp |
| Hirschi Marc | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 5.1% | 2.7% | 5.7% | 29.00 | 2.3% | +2.9pp |
| Rondel Mathys | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 4.5% | 1.5% | 5.3% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +3.7pp |
| Vendrame Andrea | Team Jayco-AlUla | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 19.00 | 3.5% | +0.6pp |
| Cosnefroy Benoît | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.50 | 18.8% | -14.9pp |
| Fancellu Alessandro | MBH Bank Ballan Telecom Fort | 3.7% | 1.4% | 4.3% | 126.00 | 0.5% | +3.2pp |
| Crescioli Ludovico | Team Polti VisitMalta | 3.1% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +2.1pp |
| Ulissi Diego | XDS Astana Team | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +1.5pp |
| Dunbar Edward | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 2.0% | 0.8% | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Adrià Roger | Movistar Team | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 15.00 | 4.4% | -2.5pp |
| Morgado António | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.5% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +0.7pp |
| Pluimers Rick | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 21.00 | 3.1% | -1.7pp |
| Teuns Dylan | Cofidis | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 201.00 | 0.3% | +1.0pp |
| Charmig Anthon | Uno-X Mobility | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 15.00 | 4.4% | -3.1pp |
| Conci Nicola | XDS Astana Team | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 201.00 | 0.3% | +0.8pp |
| Belletta Dario | Team Polti VisitMalta | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 201.00 | 0.3% | +0.8pp |
| Barrenetxea Jon | Movistar Team | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 41.00 | 1.6% | -0.5pp |
| Christen Fabio | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +0.3pp |
| Baroncini Filippo | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 126.00 | 0.5% | +0.6pp |
| Hermans Quinten | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 26.00 | 2.5% | -1.7pp |
| Velasco Simone | XDS Astana Team | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 29.00 | 2.3% | -1.8pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grégoire Romain | 13.4% | 21.1% | 11.4% | 36.7% | 63.5% | n/a |
| 2 | McNulty Brandon | 10.5% | 20.0% | 8.1% | 33.0% | 56.9% | 8.00 |
| 3 | Scaroni Cristian | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 21.6% | 59.5% | n/a |
| 4 | Wellens Tim | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 18.7% | 54.1% | 34.00 |
| 5 | Hirschi Marc | 5.1% | 2.7% | 5.7% | 10.6% | 45.2% | 29.00 |
| 6 | Rondel Mathys | 4.5% | 1.5% | 5.3% | 9.8% | 42.3% | 81.00 |
| 7 | Vendrame Andrea | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 11.7% | 45.7% | 19.00 |
| 8 | Cosnefroy Benoît | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 15.2% | 47.4% | 3.50 |
| 9 | Fancellu Alessandro | 3.7% | 1.4% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 30.6% | 126.00 |
| 10 | Crescioli Ludovico | 3.1% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 8.2% | 43.7% | 67.00 |
| 11 | Ulissi Diego | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 9.5% | 47.7% | 67.00 |
| 12 | Dunbar Edward | 2.0% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 23.4% | n/a |
| 13 | Adrià Roger | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 7.7% | 35.0% | 15.00 |
| 14 | Morgado António | 1.5% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 11.7% | 38.4% | 81.00 |
| 15 | Pluimers Rick | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 9.9% | 40.1% | 21.00 |
| 16 | Teuns Dylan | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 4.1% | 29.0% | 201.00 |
| 17 | Charmig Anthon | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 3.9% | 32.4% | 15.00 |
| 18 | Conci Nicola | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 21.2% | 201.00 |
| 19 | Belletta Dario | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 29.3% | 201.00 |
| 20 | Barrenetxea Jon | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 3.5% | 44.6% | 41.00 |
| 21 | Christen Fabio | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 31.1% | 81.00 |
| 22 | Baroncini Filippo | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 6.3% | 24.6% | 126.00 |
| 23 | Turconi Filippo | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 22.7% | 301.00 |
| 24 | Izquierdo Clement | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 3.0% | 22.2% | 301.00 |
| 25 | Molenaar Alex | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 3.1% | 27.8% | 101.00 |
| 26 | Hermans Quinten | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 21.3% | 26.00 |
| 27 | Madouas Valentin | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 27.5% | 151.00 |
| 28 | Tronchon Bastien | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 4.3% | 25.7% | 81.00 |
| 29 | Trentin Matteo | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 30.4% | 81.00 |
| 30 | Camprubí Marcel | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 16.4% | 251.00 |
After the race
The race hasn't been settled yet — this section fills in once the results archive lands under results/race/.