Cycling race predictor · one-day race

Giro dell'Emilia settled

One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.

Raced 3 October 2026 1 reading 168 riders priced models retrained 72bc1bd857 market snapshot no capture

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The fork

1 reading of the same road

Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.

Own history

Giro dell'Emilia on its own recent editions

sprint0.00

mountain0.13

hilly0.00

rolling0.86

break0.01

TT0.00

References: Giro dell'Emilia (2025); Giro dell'Emilia (2024); Giro dell'Emilia (2023); Giro dell'Emilia (2022); Giro dell'Emilia (2021)

The race read on its own recent history: the profile is the average of this race's last 5 editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race itself rather than from an archetype.

Top 5 (blend): Martinez Lenny 13.7%; Pidcock Tom 11.7%; McNulty Brandon 6.5%; Onley Oscar 4.6%; Piganzoli Davide 3.5%

The board

Win probabilities across the heads

Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.

Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals own history 95% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.

Rider	Team	Blend	Cascade	LambdaRank	Market odds	Market devig	Max edge
Martinez Lenny	Bahrain Victorious	13.7%	11.1%	15.1%	n/a	–	–
Pidcock Tom	Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team	11.7%	5.8%	13.8%	n/a	–	–
McNulty Brandon	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	6.5%	9.0%	6.3%	n/a	–	–
Onley Oscar	Netcompany INEOS	4.6%	3.5%	5.2%	n/a	–	–
Piganzoli Davide	Team Visma \| Lease a Bike	3.5%	1.5%	4.1%	n/a	–	–
Wellens Tim	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	3.2%	2.8%	3.5%	n/a	–	–
Arensman Thymen	Netcompany INEOS	2.4%	1.2%	2.8%	n/a	–	–
Jorgenson Matteo	Team Visma \| Lease a Bike	2.3%	2.8%	2.3%	n/a	–	–
Storer Michael	Tudor Pro Cycling Team	2.1%	4.1%	1.8%	n/a	–	–
Yates Adam	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	2.0%	2.9%	1.9%	n/a	–	–
Berthet Clément	Groupama-FDJ United	2.0%	1.5%	2.2%	n/a	–	–
Hindley Jai	Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe	1.7%	2.7%	1.6%	n/a	–	–
Narvaez Jhonnatan	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	1.7%	1.9%	1.7%	n/a	–	–
August AJ	Netcompany INEOS	1.7%	1.9%	1.7%	n/a	–	–
Riccitello Matthew	Decathlon CMA CGM Team	1.6%	3.1%	1.4%	n/a	–	–
Costiou Ewen	Groupama-FDJ United	1.6%	1.5%	1.7%	n/a	–	–
Widar Jarno	Lotto-Intermarché	1.4%	1.2%	1.6%	n/a	–	–
Bagioli Andrea	Lidl-Trek	1.4%	1.8%	1.4%	n/a	–	–
Powless Neilson	EF Education-EasyPost	1.4%	4.9%	0.6%	n/a	–	–
Arrieta Igor	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	1.2%	0.7%	1.3%	n/a	–	–
Sheffield Magnus	Netcompany INEOS	1.1%	1.5%	1.1%	n/a	–	–
Kulset Johannes	Uno-X Mobility	1.1%	0.5%	1.3%	n/a	–	–
Quintana Nairo	Movistar Team	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%	n/a	–	–
Tejada Harold	XDS Astana Team	1.0%	2.9%	0.6%	n/a	–	–

Giro dell'Emilia on its own recent editions — top 30, all heads

#	Rider	Blend	Cascade	LambdaRank	Podium	Top 15	Market odds
1	Martinez Lenny	13.7%	11.1%	15.1%	30.5%	59.3%	n/a
2	Pidcock Tom	11.7%	5.8%	13.8%	22.3%	61.4%	n/a
3	McNulty Brandon	6.5%	9.0%	6.3%	21.7%	50.6%	n/a
4	Onley Oscar	4.6%	3.5%	5.2%	17.4%	47.1%	n/a
5	Piganzoli Davide	3.5%	1.5%	4.1%	7.8%	44.4%	n/a
6	Wellens Tim	3.2%	2.8%	3.5%	11.3%	48.5%	n/a
7	Arensman Thymen	2.4%	1.2%	2.8%	5.5%	27.0%	n/a
8	Jorgenson Matteo	2.3%	2.8%	2.3%	8.7%	40.3%	n/a
9	Storer Michael	2.1%	4.1%	1.8%	10.3%	41.3%	n/a
10	Yates Adam	2.0%	2.9%	1.9%	9.5%	39.5%	n/a
11	Berthet Clément	2.0%	1.5%	2.2%	6.0%	45.1%	n/a
12	Hindley Jai	1.7%	2.7%	1.6%	7.5%	29.8%	n/a
13	Narvaez Jhonnatan	1.7%	1.9%	1.7%	7.9%	27.4%	n/a
14	August AJ	1.7%	1.9%	1.7%	2.6%	12.5%	n/a
15	Riccitello Matthew	1.6%	3.1%	1.4%	5.3%	24.0%	n/a
16	Costiou Ewen	1.6%	1.5%	1.7%	3.6%	20.9%	n/a
17	Widar Jarno	1.4%	1.2%	1.6%	5.8%	37.7%	n/a
18	Bagioli Andrea	1.4%	1.8%	1.4%	7.2%	32.2%	n/a
19	Powless Neilson	1.4%	4.9%	0.6%	7.3%	20.2%	n/a
20	Arrieta Igor	1.2%	0.7%	1.3%	3.3%	35.7%	n/a
21	Sheffield Magnus	1.1%	1.5%	1.1%	5.4%	24.9%	n/a
22	Kulset Johannes	1.1%	0.5%	1.3%	3.6%	35.5%	n/a
23	Quintana Nairo	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%	2.9%	16.8%	n/a
24	Tejada Harold	1.0%	2.9%	0.6%	4.4%	19.2%	n/a
25	Tulett Ben	1.0%	1.0%	1.1%	4.1%	22.8%	n/a
26	Finn Lorenzo	0.9%	0.6%	1.0%	2.6%	10.5%	n/a
27	Landa Mikel	0.9%	0.4%	1.1%	1.5%	16.7%	n/a
28	Bilbao Pello	0.9%	1.7%	0.7%	3.1%	26.4%	n/a
29	Healy Ben	0.8%	1.4%	0.7%	5.0%	28.6%	n/a
30	Pozzovivo Domenico	0.8%	0.4%	0.9%	3.6%	27.1%	n/a

After the race

Result — won by Piganzoli Davide

Pos	Rider	Team	Own history win p
1	Piganzoli Davide	Team Visma \| Lease a Bike	3.5%
2	Pidcock Tom	Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team	11.7%
3	Onley Oscar	Netcompany INEOS	4.6%
4	Tulett Ben	Team Visma \| Lease a Bike	1.0%
5	Jorgenson Matteo	Team Visma \| Lease a Bike	2.3%
6	Healy Ben	EF Education-EasyPost	0.8%
7	Fortunato Lorenzo	XDS Astana Team	0.3%
8	Yates Adam	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	2.0%
9	Storer Michael	Tudor Pro Cycling Team	2.1%
10	McNulty Brandon	UAE Team Emirates-XRG	6.5%

Scoring — probability given to the actual winner

Reading	Blend	Cascade	LambdaRank	Market devig
Own history	3.46%	1.54%	4.12%	–

Result rows are joined to the boards by FirstCycling rider id through the riders table. 0 row(s) needed the normalised-name fallback; 1 finisher(s) could not be matched at all.