One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals own history 120% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 22.5% | 18.4% | 19.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Scaroni Cristian | XDS Astana Team | 12.2% | 14.1% | 9.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Morgado António | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 9.1% | 10.6% | 7.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Christen Jan | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Pellizzari Giulio | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 4.3% | 9.4% | 2.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Powless Neilson | EF Education-EasyPost | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Rondel Mathys | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 3.3% | 1.9% | 3.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Tiberi Antonio | Bahrain Victorious | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Izagirre Ion | Cofidis | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Lipowitz Florian | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Arrieta Igor | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Storer Michael | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 2.3% | 4.2% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Kulset Johannes | Uno-X Mobility | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Cosnefroy Benoît | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 2.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Champoussin Clément | XDS Astana Team | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Crescioli Ludovico | Team Polti VisitMalta | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Nerurkar Lukas | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Tesfazion Natnael | Movistar Team | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| O'Connor Ben | Team Jayco-AlUla | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Fancellu Alessandro | MBH Bank Ballan Telecom Fort | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Carr Simon | Cofidis | 1.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Jegat Jordan | Team TotalEnergies | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Boichis Adrien | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Martinez Daniel | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martinez Lenny | 22.5% | 18.4% | 19.8% | 41.1% | 73.3% | n/a |
| 2 | Scaroni Cristian | 12.2% | 14.1% | 9.7% | 32.3% | 75.9% | n/a |
| 3 | Morgado António | 9.1% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 26.9% | 58.7% | n/a |
| 4 | Christen Jan | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 17.7% | 54.7% | n/a |
| 5 | Pellizzari Giulio | 4.3% | 9.4% | 2.4% | 19.2% | 39.1% | n/a |
| 6 | Powless Neilson | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 11.1% | 39.3% | n/a |
| 7 | Rondel Mathys | 3.3% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 8.8% | 47.7% | n/a |
| 8 | Tiberi Antonio | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 7.5% | 36.6% | n/a |
| 9 | Izagirre Ion | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 8.5% | 42.0% | n/a |
| 10 | Lipowitz Florian | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 6.4% | 24.2% | n/a |
| 11 | Arrieta Igor | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 5.8% | 34.3% | n/a |
| 12 | Storer Michael | 2.3% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 12.3% | 39.9% | n/a |
| 13 | Kulset Johannes | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 6.7% | 49.4% | n/a |
| 14 | Cosnefroy Benoît | 2.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 10.4% | 41.4% | n/a |
| 15 | Champoussin Clément | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 8.9% | 39.1% | n/a |
| 16 | Crescioli Ludovico | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 5.1% | 37.2% | n/a |
| 17 | Nerurkar Lukas | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 4.1% | 27.9% | n/a |
| 18 | Tesfazion Natnael | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 6.5% | 40.9% | n/a |
| 19 | O'Connor Ben | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 4.2% | 22.6% | n/a |
| 20 | Fancellu Alessandro | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 8.8% | 33.0% | n/a |
| 21 | Carr Simon | 1.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 7.2% | 27.6% | n/a |
| 22 | Jegat Jordan | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 4.4% | 26.5% | n/a |
| 23 | Boichis Adrien | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 3.8% | 15.3% | n/a |
| 24 | Martinez Daniel | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 14.2% | n/a |
| 25 | Pericas Adria | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 5.0% | 17.5% | n/a |
| 26 | Breuillard Nicolas | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 3.9% | 21.7% | n/a |
| 27 | Decomble Maxime | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 3.8% | 15.7% | n/a |
| 28 | Rolland Brieuc | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 2.5% | 22.9% | n/a |
| 29 | Fagundez Eric | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 3.2% | 22.6% | n/a |
| 30 | Hindley Jai | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 7.1% | 25.2% | n/a |
After the race
| Pos | Rider | Team | Own history win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pellizzari Giulio | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 4.3% |
| 2 | Jegat Jordan | Team TotalEnergies | 1.2% |
| 3 | Scaroni Cristian | XDS Astana Team | 12.2% |
| 4 | Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 22.5% |
| 5 | Fancellu Alessandro | MBH Bank Ballan Telecom Fort | 1.4% |
| 6 | Honore Mikkel | EF Education-EasyPost | 0.3% |
| 7 | Castellon Jan | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 0.7% |
| 8 | Tiberi Antonio | Bahrain Victorious | 3.1% |
| 9 | Storer Michael | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 2.3% |
| 10 | Gutiérrez Jorge | Equipo Kern Pharma | 0.2% |
| Reading | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own history | 4.35% | 9.36% | 2.38% | – |
Result rows are joined to the boards by FirstCycling rider id through the riders table. 4 row(s) needed the normalised-name fallback; 2 finisher(s) could not be matched at all.