One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals hindsight 59% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crescioli Ludovico | Team Polti VisitMalta | 9.7% | 8.3% | 16.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Fancellu Alessandro | MBH Bank Ballan Telecom Fort | 4.7% | 3.1% | 8.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Plapp Lucas | Team Jayco-AlUla | 3.6% | 8.1% | 5.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Oldani Stefano | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 3.3% | 1.6% | 6.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Castellon Jan | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 3.2% | 1.6% | 5.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Vendrame Andrea | Team Jayco-AlUla | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Verre Alessandro | MBH Bank Ballan Telecom Fort | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Turconi Filippo | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 2.1% | 1.5% | 3.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Fagundez Eric | Burgos Burpellet BH | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Delettre Alexandre | Team TotalEnergies | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Belletta Dario | Team Polti VisitMalta | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Covi Alessandro | Team Jayco-AlUla | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Bais Mattia | Team Polti VisitMalta | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Magli Filippo | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 1.4% | 0.6% | 2.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Marcellusi Martin | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Lonardi Giovanni | Team Polti VisitMalta | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Pescador Diego | Movistar Team Academy | 1.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crescioli Ludovico | 9.7% | 8.3% | 16.8% | 25.9% | 71.3% | n/a |
| 2 | Fancellu Alessandro | 4.7% | 3.1% | 8.3% | 12.4% | 46.1% | n/a |
| 3 | Plapp Lucas | 3.6% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 17.9% | 45.3% | n/a |
| 4 | Oldani Stefano | 3.3% | 1.6% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 45.3% | n/a |
| 5 | Castellon Jan | 3.2% | 1.6% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 45.4% | n/a |
| 6 | Vendrame Andrea | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 16.0% | 55.9% | n/a |
| 7 | Verre Alessandro | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 12.3% | 41.7% | n/a |
| 8 | Turconi Filippo | 2.1% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 7.6% | 41.3% | n/a |
| 9 | Fagundez Eric | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 7.6% | 39.6% | n/a |
| 10 | Delettre Alexandre | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 7.0% | 43.6% | n/a |
| 11 | Belletta Dario | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 42.3% | n/a |
| 12 | Covi Alessandro | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 7.9% | 42.0% | n/a |
| 13 | Bais Mattia | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 8.0% | 45.0% | n/a |
| 14 | Magli Filippo | 1.4% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 39.4% | n/a |
| 15 | Marcellusi Martin | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 8.4% | 34.2% | n/a |
| 16 | Lonardi Giovanni | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 9.4% | 39.5% | n/a |
| 17 | Pescador Diego | 1.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 10.9% | 37.8% | n/a |
| 18 | Delbove Joris | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 31.8% | n/a |
| 19 | Bonnet Thomas | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 35.8% | n/a |
| 20 | de la Calle Hugo | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 27.1% | n/a |
| 21 | Burgaudeau Mathieu | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 4.1% | 36.0% | n/a |
| 22 | Bagatin Christian | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 6.8% | 26.6% | n/a |
| 23 | Mifsud Andrea | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 4.2% | 36.3% | n/a |
| 24 | Tsarenko Kyrylo | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 19.0% | n/a |
| 25 | Rubio Einer | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 17.3% | n/a |
| 26 | Zanoncello Enrico | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 11.0% | n/a |
| 27 | Budzinski Marcin | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 5.7% | 40.0% | n/a |
| 28 | Maestri Mirco | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 14.8% | n/a |
| 29 | Kudus Merhawi | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 21.6% | n/a |
| 30 | Retegi Mikel | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 15.7% | n/a |
After the race
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fagundez Eric | BURGOS-BURPELLET-BH | 2.0% |
| 2 | Delettre Alexandre | TOTALENERGIES | 1.6% |
| 3 | Ponomar Andrii | GENERAL STORE - ESSEGIBI - F.LLI CURIA | 0.3% |
| 4 | Rubio Einer | MOVISTAR TEAM | 0.6% |
| 5 | Corres Gorka | CAJA RURAL-SEGUROS RGA | 0.0% |
| 6 | Fancellu Alessandro | MBH BANK CSB TELECOM FORT | 4.7% |
| 7 | Vendrame Andrea | TEAM JAYCO ALULA | 2.5% |
| 8 | de la Calle Hugo | BURGOS-BURPELLET-BH | 0.9% |
| 9 | Crescioli Ludovico | TEAM POLTI VISITMALTA | 9.7% |
| 10 | Delbove Joris | TOTALENERGIES | 1.0% |
| Reading | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 2.05% | 1.61% | 3.57% | – |
Result rows are joined to the boards by FirstCycling rider id through the riders table. 0 row(s) needed the normalised-name fallback; 1 finisher(s) could not be matched at all.