One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals own history 132% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meeus Jordi | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 22.2% | 26.1% | 15.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Groenewegen Dylan | Unibet Rose Rockets | 20.3% | 29.4% | 13.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Vernon Ethan | NSN Cycling Team | 18.0% | 15.2% | 14.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Wærenskjold Søren | Uno-X Mobility | 14.5% | 10.4% | 12.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Kogut Oded | NSN Cycling Team | 7.7% | 9.2% | 5.4% | n/a | – | – |
| De Schuyteneer Steffen | Lotto-Intermarché | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Hobbs Noah | EF Education-EasyPost | 5.8% | 9.4% | 3.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Thijssen Gerben | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 4.1% | 1.8% | 3.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Lamperti Luke | EF Education-EasyPost | 3.9% | 1.9% | 3.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Biesterbos Frits | Team Picnic PostNL | 3.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Kanter Max | XDS Astana Team | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Mihkels Madis | EF Education-EasyPost | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| van Dijke Tim | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Marit Arne | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Teunissen Mike | XDS Astana Team | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Plowright Jensen | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Dekker David | BEAT CC p/b Saxo | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Meeus Jordi | 22.2% | 26.1% | 15.8% | 44.7% | 78.5% | n/a |
| 2 | Groenewegen Dylan | 20.3% | 29.4% | 13.0% | 54.3% | 81.8% | n/a |
| 3 | Vernon Ethan | 18.0% | 15.2% | 14.3% | 44.6% | 74.6% | n/a |
| 4 | Wærenskjold Søren | 14.5% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 28.1% | 69.5% | n/a |
| 5 | Kogut Oded | 7.7% | 9.2% | 5.4% | 25.6% | 61.4% | n/a |
| 6 | De Schuyteneer Steffen | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 17.9% | 59.4% | n/a |
| 7 | Hobbs Noah | 5.8% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 24.4% | 65.9% | n/a |
| 8 | Thijssen Gerben | 4.1% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 9.2% | 54.5% | n/a |
| 9 | Lamperti Luke | 3.9% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 8.5% | 45.7% | n/a |
| 10 | Biesterbos Frits | 3.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 6.7% | 40.7% | n/a |
| 11 | Kanter Max | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 16.4% | 49.2% | n/a |
| 12 | Mihkels Madis | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 9.4% | 44.9% | n/a |
| 13 | van Dijke Tim | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 7.9% | 33.3% | n/a |
| 14 | Marit Arne | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 8.0% | 48.5% | n/a |
| 15 | Teunissen Mike | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 6.1% | 37.6% | n/a |
| 16 | Plowright Jensen | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 11.7% | 38.0% | n/a |
| 17 | Dekker David | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 4.0% | 53.2% | n/a |
| 18 | Borgo Alessandro | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 3.4% | 33.8% | n/a |
| 19 | Stewart Jake | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 2.7% | 26.8% | n/a |
| 20 | Dupont Timothy | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 3.1% | 34.8% | n/a |
| 21 | Taminiaux Lionel | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 4.0% | 20.7% | n/a |
| 22 | Müller Tobias | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 4.0% | 30.8% | n/a |
| 23 | van Uden Casper | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 4.5% | 30.0% | n/a |
| 24 | Bevort Carl-Frederik | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 5.2% | 37.6% | n/a |
| 25 | Van Asbroeck Tom | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 2.8% | 47.7% | n/a |
| 26 | Etxeberria Haimar | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 2.5% | 15.1% | n/a |
| 27 | Capiot Amaury | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 2.3% | 29.4% | n/a |
| 28 | Fox Matthew | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 21.7% | n/a |
| 29 | Flynn Sean | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 17.3% | n/a |
| 30 | Kurits Karl | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 2.3% | 23.7% | n/a |
After the race
| Pos | Rider | Team | Own history win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kanter Max | XDS Astana Team | 3.2% |
| 2 | Biesterbos Frits | Team Picnic PostNL | 3.2% |
| 3 | Meeus Jordi | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 22.2% |
| 4 | Vernon Ethan | NSN Cycling Team | 18.0% |
| 5 | Van Asbroeck Tom | NSN Cycling Team | 0.5% |
| 6 | Hesters Jules | Team Flanders-Baloise | 0.1% |
| 7 | De Schuyteneer Steffen | Lotto-Intermarché | 7.1% |
| 8 | Wærenskjold Søren | Uno-X Mobility | 14.5% |
| 9 | Borgo Alessandro | Bahrain Victorious | 0.7% |
| 10 | Thijssen Gerben | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 4.1% |
| Reading | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own history | 3.16% | 3.65% | 2.26% | – |
Result rows are joined to the boards by FirstCycling rider id through the riders table. 0 row(s) needed the normalised-name fallback; 2 finisher(s) could not be matched at all.