One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals own history 110% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kooij Olav | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 46.2% | 42.8% | 42.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Fretin Milan | Cofidis | 21.8% | 24.5% | 19.1% | n/a | – | – |
| de Kleijn Arvid | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Moschetti Matteo | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Mozzato Luca | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 3.8% | 2.2% | 3.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Aniolkowski Stanislaw | Cofidis | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Bol Cees | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Grisel Matys | Lotto-Intermarché | 3.1% | 1.5% | 3.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Tesson Jason | Team TotalEnergies | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Bennett Sam | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 1.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Kubis Lukas | Unibet Rose Rockets | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Renard Alexis | Cofidis | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kooij Olav | 46.2% | 42.8% | 42.6% | 69.0% | 83.0% | n/a |
| 2 | Fretin Milan | 21.8% | 24.5% | 19.1% | 48.9% | 81.7% | n/a |
| 3 | de Kleijn Arvid | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 25.7% | 57.2% | n/a |
| 4 | Moschetti Matteo | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 16.7% | 66.6% | n/a |
| 5 | Mozzato Luca | 3.8% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 11.3% | 56.2% | n/a |
| 6 | Aniolkowski Stanislaw | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 14.7% | 58.3% | n/a |
| 7 | Bol Cees | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 13.0% | 38.4% | n/a |
| 8 | Grisel Matys | 3.1% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 43.4% | n/a |
| 9 | Tesson Jason | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 8.4% | 57.5% | n/a |
| 10 | Bennett Sam | 1.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 10.9% | 38.9% | n/a |
| 11 | Kubis Lukas | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 6.8% | 41.7% | n/a |
| 12 | Renard Alexis | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 5.2% | 33.2% | n/a |
| 13 | Isidore Noa | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 5.1% | 25.3% | n/a |
| 14 | Braet Vito | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 4.5% | 33.1% | n/a |
| 15 | Gudmestad Tord | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 6.8% | 28.9% | n/a |
| 16 | Huens Axel | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 44.4% | n/a |
| 17 | Turgis Anthony | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 5.5% | 41.0% | n/a |
| 18 | Kopecky Matyas | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 2.9% | 34.7% | n/a |
| 19 | Hardouin Louis | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 38.2% | n/a |
| 20 | Russo Clément | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 27.5% | n/a |
| 21 | Oosterlinck Joes | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 30.2% | n/a |
| 22 | Froidevaux Robin | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 4.3% | 34.4% | n/a |
| 23 | Giddings Joshua | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 32.4% | n/a |
| 24 | Van Den Boer Seppe | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 23.1% | n/a |
| 25 | Pollefliet Gianluca | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 19.2% | n/a |
| 26 | Parisini Nicolò | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 3.2% | 33.2% | n/a |
| 27 | Manzin Lorrenzo | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 22.1% | n/a |
| 28 | Heremans Joppe | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 31.3% | n/a |
| 29 | Allegaert Piet | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 20.8% | n/a |
| 30 | Bloem Joren | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 22.1% | n/a |
After the race
| Pos | Rider | Team | Own history win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kooij Olav | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 46.2% |
| 2 | Moschetti Matteo | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 4.4% |
| 3 | de Kleijn Arvid | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 8.3% |
| 4 | Tesson Jason | Team TotalEnergies | 2.5% |
| 5 | Bloem Joren | Unibet Rose Rockets | 0.1% |
| 6 | Russo Clément | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.4% |
| 7 | Allegaert Piet | Cofidis | 0.2% |
| 8 | Théot Killian | Van Rysel-Roubaix | 0.1% |
| 9 | Renard Alexis | COFIDIS | 1.0% |
| 10 | Giddings Joshua | Lotto-Intermarché | 0.3% |
| Reading | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own history | 46.16% | 42.79% | 42.63% | – |
Result rows are joined to the boards by FirstCycling rider id through the riders table. 0 row(s) needed the normalised-name fallback; 2 finisher(s) could not be matched at all.