One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
← GP Industria & Artigianato hub · All races · How the model works
The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals hindsight 123% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martinez Lenny | BAHRAIN VICTORIOUS | 38.6% | 35.4% | 32.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Pidcock Tom | PINARELLO-Q36.5 PRO CYCLING TEAM | 22.6% | 13.6% | 20.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Grégoire Romain | GROUPAMA-FDJ UNITED | 12.3% | 13.4% | 9.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Scaroni Cristian | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 7.8% | 11.1% | 5.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Christen Jan | UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Aranburu Alex | COFIDIS | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Powless Neilson | EF EDUCATION - EASYPOST | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Rondel Mathys | TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Morgado António | UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Izagirre Ion | COFIDIS | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Storer Michael | TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Kulset Johannes | UNO-X MOBILITY | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Crescioli Ludovico | TEAM POLTI VISITMALTA | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Breuillard Nicolas | TOTALENERGIES | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Tesfazion Natnael | MOVISTAR TEAM | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Oldani Stefano | CAJA RURAL-SEGUROS RGA | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martinez Lenny | 38.6% | 35.4% | 32.1% | 56.9% | 85.4% | n/a |
| 2 | Pidcock Tom | 22.6% | 13.6% | 20.6% | 39.4% | 79.1% | n/a |
| 3 | Grégoire Romain | 12.3% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 31.8% | 72.2% | n/a |
| 4 | Scaroni Cristian | 7.8% | 11.1% | 5.5% | 25.0% | 66.3% | n/a |
| 5 | Christen Jan | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 16.7% | 55.8% | n/a |
| 6 | Aranburu Alex | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 11.0% | 52.5% | n/a |
| 7 | Powless Neilson | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 9.2% | 40.5% | n/a |
| 8 | Rondel Mathys | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 6.3% | 54.4% | n/a |
| 9 | Morgado António | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 7.6% | 32.3% | n/a |
| 10 | Izagirre Ion | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 6.4% | 39.3% | n/a |
| 11 | Storer Michael | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 11.7% | 43.0% | n/a |
| 12 | Kulset Johannes | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 5.8% | 47.3% | n/a |
| 13 | Crescioli Ludovico | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 5.3% | 38.4% | n/a |
| 14 | Breuillard Nicolas | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 4.3% | 30.6% | n/a |
| 15 | Tesfazion Natnael | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 3.9% | 46.9% | n/a |
| 16 | Oldani Stefano | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 5.3% | 34.1% | n/a |
| 17 | Tiberi Antonio | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 4.6% | 34.3% | n/a |
| 18 | Delettre Alexandre | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 5.1% | 42.8% | n/a |
| 19 | Fancellu Alessandro | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 8.8% | 33.7% | n/a |
| 20 | Castellon Jan | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 4.3% | 24.0% | n/a |
| 21 | Arrieta Igor | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 22.8% | n/a |
| 22 | Higuita Sergio | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 25.5% | n/a |
| 23 | Vercher Mattéo | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 3.4% | 27.3% | n/a |
| 24 | Jegat Jordan | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 4.2% | 24.8% | n/a |
| 25 | Champoussin Clément | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 4.1% | 23.2% | n/a |
| 26 | O'Connor Ben | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 27.5% | n/a |
| 27 | Gachignard Thomas | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 12.5% | n/a |
| 28 | Hermans Quinten | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 10.2% | n/a |
| 29 | Ulissi Diego | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 24.3% | n/a |
| 30 | Carr Simon | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 16.0% | n/a |
After the race
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pidcock Tom | PINARELLO-Q36.5 PRO CYCLING TEAM | 22.6% |
| 2 | Scaroni Cristian | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 7.8% |
| 3 | Charmig Anthon | UNO-X MOBILITY | 0.1% |
| 4 | Adrià Roger | MOVISTAR TEAM | 0.3% |
| 5 | Fancellu Alessandro | MBH BANK CSB TELECOM FORT | 0.8% |
| 6 | Tiberi Antonio | BAHRAIN VICTORIOUS | 0.9% |
| 7 | Gachignard Thomas | TOTALENERGIES | 0.5% |
| 8 | Rondel Mathys | TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM | 2.1% |
| 9 | O'Connor Ben | TEAM JAYCO ALULA | 0.5% |
| 10 | Grégoire Romain | GROUPAMA-FDJ UNITED | 12.3% |
| Reading | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 22.63% | 13.61% | 20.59% | – |