One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals hindsight 142% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 34.0% | 38.7% | 22.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 33.3% | 33.9% | 23.4% | n/a | – | – |
| del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 23.3% | 18.7% | 17.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 10.8% | 5.4% | 8.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Ayuso Juan | Lidl-Trek | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Vermeersch Florian | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 2.1% | 3.2% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| McNulty Brandon | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Jorgenson Matteo | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Ciccone Giulio | Lidl-Trek | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Matthews Michael | Team Jayco-AlUla | 1.8% | 3.5% | 0.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Hirschi Marc | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Lapeira Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Van Eetvelt Lennert | Lotto-Intermarché | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Silva Thomas | XDS Astana Team | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Van Wilder Ilan | Soudal Quick-Step | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seixas Paul | 34.0% | 38.7% | 22.9% | 58.5% | 83.0% | n/a |
| 2 | Evenepoel Remco | 33.3% | 33.9% | 23.4% | 58.6% | 83.9% | n/a |
| 3 | del Toro Isaac | 23.3% | 18.7% | 17.6% | 34.3% | 68.7% | n/a |
| 4 | Pidcock Tom | 10.8% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 20.2% | 64.1% | n/a |
| 5 | Ayuso Juan | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 8.2% | 35.4% | n/a |
| 6 | Vermeersch Florian | 2.1% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 7.3% | 25.2% | n/a |
| 7 | McNulty Brandon | 1.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 6.9% | 30.0% | n/a |
| 8 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 6.3% | 32.4% | n/a |
| 9 | Ciccone Giulio | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 6.5% | 45.4% | n/a |
| 10 | Matthews Michael | 1.8% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 7.1% | 36.2% | n/a |
| 11 | Hirschi Marc | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 6.2% | 43.7% | n/a |
| 12 | Lapeira Paul | 1.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 6.5% | 33.4% | n/a |
| 13 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 5.5% | 42.1% | n/a |
| 14 | Silva Thomas | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 5.1% | 40.7% | n/a |
| 15 | Van Wilder Ilan | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 26.0% | n/a |
| 16 | Baudin Alex | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 5.5% | 38.6% | n/a |
| 17 | Berckmoes Jenno | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 4.7% | 35.8% | n/a |
| 18 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 20.5% | n/a |
| 19 | Schachmann Max | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 2.4% | 27.1% | n/a |
| 20 | Wellens Tim | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 20.9% | n/a |
| 21 | Benoot Tiesj | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 12.3% | n/a |
| 22 | Gruel Thibaud | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 2.6% | 22.4% | n/a |
| 23 | Zambanini Edoardo | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 3.7% | 26.1% | n/a |
| 24 | Yates Adam | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 24.7% | n/a |
| 25 | Schmid Mauro | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 15.7% | n/a |
| 26 | Simmons Quinn | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 3.4% | 22.9% | n/a |
| 27 | Strong Corbin | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 3.0% | 19.1% | n/a |
| 28 | Segaert Alec | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 13.4% | n/a |
| 29 | Lemmen Bart | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 9.8% | n/a |
| 30 | Arensman Thymen | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 15.7% | n/a |
After the race
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 23.3% |
| 2 | Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 34.0% |
| 3 | McNulty Brandon | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.9% |
| 4 | Simmons Quinn | Lidl-Trek | 0.6% |
| 5 | Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 33.3% |
| 6 | Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 10.8% |
| 7 | Ciccone Giulio | Lidl-Trek | 1.9% |
| 8 | Healy Ben | EF Education-EasyPost | 0.3% |
| 9 | Eulalio Afonso | Bahrain Victorious | 0.2% |
| 10 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | Lotto-Intermarché | 1.5% |
| Reading | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 23.31% | 18.71% | 17.61% | – |
Result rows are joined to the boards by FirstCycling rider id through the riders table. 0 row(s) needed the normalised-name fallback; 1 finisher(s) could not be matched at all.