One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals hindsight 101% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evenepoel Remco | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE | 20.1% | 25.8% | 18.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Pidcock Tom | PINARELLO-Q36.5 PRO CYCLING TEAM | 13.0% | 8.7% | 14.0% | n/a | – | – |
| del Toro Isaac | UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Seixas Paul | DECATHLON CMA CGM TEAM | 10.4% | 14.0% | 9.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Matthews Michael | TEAM JAYCO ALULA | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Silva Thomas | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Strong Corbin | NSN CYCLING TEAM | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Hirschi Marc | TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Ayuso Juan | LIDL-TREK | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Vermeersch Florian | UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG | 2.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Berckmoes Jenno | LOTTO INTERMARCHÉ | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Lapeira Paul | DECATHLON CMA CGM TEAM | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| McNulty Brandon | UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG | 1.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Gruel Thibaud | GROUPAMA-FDJ UNITED | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Zambanini Edoardo | BAHRAIN VICTORIOUS | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Foldager Anders | TEAM JAYCO ALULA | 1.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Jorgenson Matteo | TEAM VISMA | LEASE A BIKE | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Van Eetvelt Lennert | LOTTO INTERMARCHÉ | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Evenepoel Remco | 20.1% | 25.8% | 18.4% | 47.3% | 72.0% | n/a |
| 2 | Pidcock Tom | 13.0% | 8.7% | 14.0% | 26.3% | 66.0% | n/a |
| 3 | del Toro Isaac | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 20.5% | 47.0% | n/a |
| 4 | Seixas Paul | 10.4% | 14.0% | 9.4% | 26.0% | 50.4% | n/a |
| 5 | Matthews Michael | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 16.6% | 57.0% | n/a |
| 6 | Silva Thomas | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 8.2% | 47.6% | n/a |
| 7 | Strong Corbin | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 9.6% | 43.0% | n/a |
| 8 | Hirschi Marc | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 9.1% | 48.9% | n/a |
| 9 | Ayuso Juan | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 6.3% | 24.6% | n/a |
| 10 | Vermeersch Florian | 2.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 8.3% | 26.9% | n/a |
| 11 | Berckmoes Jenno | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 5.9% | 45.2% | n/a |
| 12 | Lapeira Paul | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 8.4% | 38.9% | n/a |
| 13 | McNulty Brandon | 1.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 6.0% | 23.0% | n/a |
| 14 | Gruel Thibaud | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 7.7% | 40.5% | n/a |
| 15 | Zambanini Edoardo | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 3.5% | 32.4% | n/a |
| 16 | Foldager Anders | 1.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 6.7% | 33.0% | n/a |
| 17 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 23.4% | n/a |
| 18 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 18.5% | n/a |
| 19 | Lamperti Luke | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 3.7% | 20.6% | n/a |
| 20 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 18.7% | n/a |
| 21 | Ciccone Giulio | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 16.8% | n/a |
| 22 | Raccagni Noviero Andrea | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 18.4% | n/a |
| 23 | Uhlig Henri | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 20.7% | n/a |
| 24 | Benoot Tiesj | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 17.5% | n/a |
| 25 | Hermans Quinten | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 13.3% | n/a |
| 26 | Isidore Noa | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 16.7% | n/a |
| 27 | Oliver Ben | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 13.2% | n/a |
| 28 | Narvaez Jhonnatan | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 13.5% | n/a |
| 29 | Sheffield Magnus | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 14.6% | n/a |
| 30 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 16.2% | n/a |
After the race
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Evenepoel Remco | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE | 20.1% |
| 2 | Ciccone Giulio | LIDL-TREK | 0.7% |
| 3 | Charmig Anthon | UNO-X MOBILITY | 0.3% |
| 4 | Pidcock Tom | PINARELLO-Q36.5 PRO CYCLING TEAM | 13.0% |
| 5 | Simmons Quinn | LIDL-TREK | 0.4% |
| 6 | Matthews Michael | TEAM JAYCO ALULA | 5.4% |
| 7 | Lapeira Paul | DECATHLON CMA CGM TEAM | 1.9% |
| 8 | Jorgenson Matteo | TEAM VISMA | LEASE A BIKE | 1.1% |
| 9 | Pinarello Alessandro | NSN CYCLING TEAM | 0.4% |
| 10 | Schachmann Max | SOUDAL QUICK-STEP | 0.3% |
| Reading | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 20.08% | 25.81% | 18.45% | – |
Result rows are joined to the boards by FirstCycling rider id through the riders table. 0 row(s) needed the normalised-name fallback; 1 finisher(s) could not be matched at all.