One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals own history 124% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 37.6% | 38.7% | 29.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Grégoire Romain | Groupama-FDJ United | 9.2% | 10.8% | 7.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Silva Thomas | XDS Astana Team | 7.0% | 2.9% | 6.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Pedersen Mads | Lidl-Trek | 6.3% | 15.2% | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 3.8% | 1.7% | 3.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Godon Dorian | Netcompany INEOS | 3.8% | 6.3% | 2.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Pithie Laurence | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Hirschi Marc | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 3.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | n/a | – | – |
| McNulty Brandon | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Cosnefroy Benoît | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Zambanini Edoardo | Bahrain Victorious | 2.4% | 0.8% | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Matthews Michael | Team Jayco-AlUla | 2.3% | 4.4% | 1.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Strong Corbin | NSN Cycling Team | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Vendrame Andrea | Team Jayco-AlUla | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Narvaez Jhonnatan | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Morgado António | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Oldani Stefano | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Schmid Mauro | Team Jayco-AlUla | 1.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Tesfazion Natnael | Movistar Team | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Honore Mikkel | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | del Toro Isaac | 37.6% | 38.7% | 29.9% | 54.7% | 77.4% | n/a |
| 2 | Grégoire Romain | 9.2% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 25.0% | 53.2% | n/a |
| 3 | Silva Thomas | 7.0% | 2.9% | 6.6% | 13.1% | 39.3% | n/a |
| 4 | Pedersen Mads | 6.3% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 25.3% | 46.6% | n/a |
| 5 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 3.8% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 29.3% | n/a |
| 6 | Godon Dorian | 3.8% | 6.3% | 2.4% | 15.0% | 42.4% | n/a |
| 7 | Pithie Laurence | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 13.1% | 36.8% | n/a |
| 8 | Hirschi Marc | 3.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 7.0% | 34.2% | n/a |
| 9 | McNulty Brandon | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 9.2% | 28.3% | n/a |
| 10 | Cosnefroy Benoît | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 10.7% | 38.5% | n/a |
| 11 | Zambanini Edoardo | 2.4% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 33.4% | n/a |
| 12 | Matthews Michael | 2.3% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 9.4% | 35.7% | n/a |
| 13 | Strong Corbin | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 9.0% | 37.6% | n/a |
| 14 | Vendrame Andrea | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 7.5% | 38.0% | n/a |
| 15 | Narvaez Jhonnatan | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 21.0% | n/a |
| 16 | Morgado António | 1.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 9.8% | 31.4% | n/a |
| 17 | Oldani Stefano | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 4.2% | 32.7% | n/a |
| 18 | Schmid Mauro | 1.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 8.7% | 26.9% | n/a |
| 19 | Tesfazion Natnael | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 25.3% | n/a |
| 20 | Honore Mikkel | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 4.6% | 19.4% | n/a |
| 21 | Trentin Matteo | 0.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 3.4% | 23.3% | n/a |
| 22 | Miquel Delgado Pau | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.7% | 22.4% | n/a |
| 23 | Costiou Ewen | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.6% | 17.1% | n/a |
| 24 | Belletta Dario | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 19.0% | n/a |
| 25 | Nerurkar Lukas | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 19.3% | n/a |
| 26 | Teuns Dylan | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 13.9% | n/a |
| 27 | Laurance Axel | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 19.2% | n/a |
| 28 | Fisher-Black Finn | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 14.1% | n/a |
| 29 | Turconi Filippo | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 11.1% | n/a |
| 30 | Maisonobe Sam | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 10.7% | n/a |
After the race
| Pos | Rider | Team | Own history win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Godon Dorian | NETCOMPANY INEOS | 3.8% |
| 2 | Charmig Anthon | UNO-X MOBILITY | – |
| 3 | Bettiol Alberto | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 0.2% |
| 4 | Nerurkar Lukas | EF EDUCATION - EASYPOST | 0.8% |
| 5 | Hermans Quinten | PINARELLO-Q36.5 PRO CYCLING TEAM | – |
| 6 | WRIGHT Alfred Brockwell | PINARELLO-Q36.5 PRO CYCLING TEAM | – |
| 7 | Eulalio Afonso | BAHRAIN VICTORIOUS | – |
| 8 | Matthews Michael | TEAM JAYCO ALULA | 2.3% |
| 9 | Narvaez Jhonnatan | UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG | 1.7% |
| 10 | Marti Pau | NSN CYCLING TEAM | 0.2% |
1 rider in the top 15 is shown under a provisional identity pending reconciliation: WRIGHT Alfred Brockwell.
| Reading | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own history | 3.76% | 6.32% | 2.38% | – |
Result rows are joined to the boards by FirstCycling rider id through the riders table. 0 row(s) needed the normalised-name fallback; 2 finisher(s) could not be matched at all.