One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
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The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals hindsight 112% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grégoire Romain | GROUPAMA-FDJ UNITED | 24.2% | 13.6% | 24.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Vermeersch Florian | UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG | 14.4% | 20.5% | 11.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Pithie Laurence | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE | 6.9% | 9.9% | 5.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Morgado António | UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | n/a | – | – |
| De Lie Arnaud | LOTTO INTERMARCHÉ | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Lapeira Paul | DECATHLON CMA CGM TEAM | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Askey Lewis | NSN CYCLING TEAM | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Berckmoes Jenno | LOTTO INTERMARCHÉ | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Wellens Tim | UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Adrià Roger | MOVISTAR TEAM | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Cosnefroy Benoît | UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG | 2.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Pluimers Rick | TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM | 2.3% | 0.8% | 2.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Del Grosso Tibor | ALPECIN-PREMIER TECH | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Tesfazion Natnael | MOVISTAR TEAM | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Wærenskjold Søren | UNO-X MOBILITY | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Trentin Matteo | TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| van Poppel Danny | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| van Dijke Mick | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| van Dijke Tim | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE | 1.7% | 3.0% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Teutenberg Tim Torn | LIDL-TREK | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Girmay Biniam | NSN CYCLING TEAM | 1.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Grisel Matys | LOTTO INTERMARCHÉ | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grégoire Romain | 24.2% | 13.6% | 24.2% | 30.8% | 72.1% | n/a |
| 2 | Vermeersch Florian | 14.4% | 20.5% | 11.3% | 32.0% | 61.4% | n/a |
| 3 | Pithie Laurence | 6.9% | 9.9% | 5.4% | 22.4% | 55.7% | n/a |
| 4 | Morgado António | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 13.1% | 42.6% | n/a |
| 5 | De Lie Arnaud | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 15.0% | 41.0% | n/a |
| 6 | Lapeira Paul | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 14.8% | 46.6% | n/a |
| 7 | Askey Lewis | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 14.1% | 49.5% | n/a |
| 8 | Berckmoes Jenno | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 7.7% | 39.8% | n/a |
| 9 | Wellens Tim | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 8.3% | 35.6% | n/a |
| 10 | Adrià Roger | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 10.8% | 42.0% | n/a |
| 11 | Cosnefroy Benoît | 2.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 9.9% | 41.5% | n/a |
| 12 | Pluimers Rick | 2.3% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 8.3% | 48.1% | n/a |
| 13 | Del Grosso Tibor | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 7.8% | 36.0% | n/a |
| 14 | Tesfazion Natnael | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 8.3% | 49.3% | n/a |
| 15 | Wærenskjold Søren | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 6.5% | 24.4% | n/a |
| 16 | Trentin Matteo | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 6.8% | 46.4% | n/a |
| 17 | van Poppel Danny | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 8.0% | 38.8% | n/a |
| 18 | van Dijke Mick | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 5.3% | 21.7% | n/a |
| 19 | van Dijke Tim | 1.7% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 7.9% | 33.2% | n/a |
| 20 | Teutenberg Tim Torn | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 4.7% | 23.9% | n/a |
| 21 | Girmay Biniam | 1.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 3.9% | 35.6% | n/a |
| 22 | Grisel Matys | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 4.7% | 35.8% | n/a |
| 23 | Christen Fabio | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 3.7% | 33.9% | n/a |
| 24 | Jeannière Emilien | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 6.6% | 35.5% | n/a |
| 25 | Huens Axel | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 29.8% | n/a |
| 26 | Barrenetxea Jon | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 3.6% | 33.6% | n/a |
| 27 | Loockx Lander | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 26.9% | n/a |
| 28 | Venturini Clément | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 32.4% | n/a |
| 29 | Teunissen Mike | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 3.8% | 29.4% | n/a |
| 30 | Sheehan Riley | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 3.1% | 32.7% | n/a |
After the race
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sparfel Aubin | DECATHLON CMA CGM DEVELOPMENT TEAM | 0.1% |
| 2 | Grégoire Romain | GROUPAMA-FDJ UNITED | 24.2% |
| 3 | Fretin Milan | COFIDIS | 0.4% |
| 4 | Cosnefroy Benoît | UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG | 2.3% |
| 5 | Lapeira Paul | DECATHLON CMA CGM TEAM | 4.0% |
| 6 | Berckmoes Jenno | LOTTO INTERMARCHÉ | 3.3% |
| 7 | Adrià Roger | MOVISTAR TEAM | 2.7% |
| 8 | Vadic Baptiste | TOTALENERGIES | 0.1% |
| 9 | Teuns Dylan | COFIDIS | 0.5% |
| 10 | Venturini Clément | UNIBET ROSE ROCKETS | 0.7% |
| Reading | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 0.13% | 0.20% | 0.10% | – |
Result rows are joined to the boards by FirstCycling rider id through the riders table. 0 row(s) needed the normalised-name fallback; 1 finisher(s) could not be matched at all.