One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals own history 127% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 29.2% | 38.6% | 20.6% | 4.00 | 16.4% | +12.8pp |
| Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 24.6% | 24.2% | 19.5% | 4.50 | 14.6% | +10.0pp |
| del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 20.1% | 17.9% | 16.4% | 2.25 | 29.1% | -9.0pp |
| Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +5.7pp |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 3.7% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 11.00 | 6.0% | -2.3pp |
| Ayuso Juan | Lidl-Trek | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +2.9pp |
| Pellizzari Giulio | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 3.0% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +2.2pp |
| McNulty Brandon | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +1.0pp |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 201.00 | 0.3% | +1.7pp |
| Mas Enric | Movistar Team | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 51.00 | 1.3% | +0.7pp |
| Roglic Primoz | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +1.1pp |
| Rondel Mathys | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +1.5pp |
| Ciccone Giulio | Lidl-Trek | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 21.00 | 3.1% | -1.4pp |
| Onley Oscar | Netcompany INEOS | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 41.00 | 1.6% | -0.2pp |
| Scaroni Cristian | XDS Astana Team | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 41.00 | 1.6% | -0.3pp |
| Van Eetvelt Lennert | Lotto-Intermarché | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 126.00 | 0.5% | +0.6pp |
| Tiberi Antonio | Bahrain Victorious | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 251.00 | 0.3% | +0.8pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seixas Paul | 29.2% | 38.6% | 20.6% | 57.5% | 84.1% | 4.00 |
| 2 | Evenepoel Remco | 24.6% | 24.2% | 19.5% | 51.7% | 81.5% | 4.50 |
| 3 | del Toro Isaac | 20.1% | 17.9% | 16.4% | 38.5% | 73.4% | 2.25 |
| 4 | Martinez Lenny | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 17.6% | 52.1% | 67.00 |
| 5 | Pidcock Tom | 3.7% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 36.1% | 11.00 |
| 6 | Ayuso Juan | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 9.3% | 37.8% | 151.00 |
| 7 | Pellizzari Giulio | 3.0% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 32.3% | 81.00 |
| 8 | McNulty Brandon | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 6.7% | 29.4% | 67.00 |
| 9 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 4.7% | 32.6% | 201.00 |
| 10 | Mas Enric | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 5.3% | 35.7% | 51.00 |
| 11 | Roglic Primoz | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 7.4% | 35.9% | 81.00 |
| 12 | Rondel Mathys | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 5.5% | 33.9% | 151.00 |
| 13 | Ciccone Giulio | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 5.3% | 41.2% | 21.00 |
| 14 | Onley Oscar | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 4.7% | 28.5% | 41.00 |
| 15 | Scaroni Cristian | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 4.9% | 30.3% | n/a |
| 16 | Piganzoli Davide | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 6.5% | 34.6% | 41.00 |
| 17 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 29.6% | 126.00 |
| 18 | Tiberi Antonio | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 5.8% | 19.5% | 251.00 |
| 19 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 9.8% | 31.3% | 34.00 |
| 20 | Arensman Thymen | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.8% | 17.4% | 251.00 |
| 21 | Buitrago Santiago | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 22.0% | 251.00 |
| 22 | Hindley Jai | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 2.4% | 15.3% | 601.00 |
| 23 | Yates Adam | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 17.0% | 151.00 |
| 24 | Christen Jan | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 3.8% | 22.4% | 201.00 |
| 25 | Izagirre Ion | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 18.3% | 401.00 |
| 26 | Storer Michael | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 25.1% | 81.00 |
| 27 | Widar Jarno | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 18.1% | 41.00 |
| 28 | Omrzel Jakob | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 12.3% | 301.00 |
| 29 | Dunbar Edward | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 9.5% | n/a |
| 30 | Fancellu Alessandro | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 11.9% | 251.00 |
After the race
| Pos | Rider | Team | Own history win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 29.2% |
| 2 | Mas Enric | Movistar Team | 2.0% |
| 3 | Ciccone Giulio | Lidl-Trek | 1.7% |
| 4 | Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 24.6% |
| 5 | McNulty Brandon | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 2.0% |
| 6 | Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 3.7% |
| 7 | Bilbao Pello | Bahrain Victorious | 0.1% |
| 8 | Scaroni Cristian | XDS Astana Team | 1.4% |
| 9 | Zana Filippo | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.1% |
| 10 | Rondel Mathys | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 1.9% |
| Reading | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own history | 29.17% | 38.62% | 20.63% | 16.38% |