One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
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The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals hindsight 130% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipsen Jasper | ALPECIN-PREMIER TECH | 34.4% | 31.2% | 27.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Merlier Tim | SOUDAL QUICK-STEP | 30.5% | 37.7% | 21.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Groenewegen Dylan | UNIBET ROSE ROCKETS | 6.9% | 8.9% | 4.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Wærenskjold Søren | UNO-X MOBILITY | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | n/a | – | – |
| de Kleijn Arvid | TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.1% | n/a | – | – |
| van Poppel Danny | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE | 4.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Teutenberg Tim Torn | LIDL-TREK | 3.8% | 2.4% | 3.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Lamperti Luke | EF EDUCATION - EASYPOST | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Kogut Oded | NSN CYCLING TEAM | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | n/a | – | – |
| De Schuyteneer Steffen | LOTTO INTERMARCHÉ | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Ackermann Pascal | TEAM JAYCO ALULA | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Marit Arne | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Aniolkowski Stanislaw | COFIDIS | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Tesson Jason | TOTALENERGIES | 1.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Moschetti Matteo | PINARELLO-Q36.5 PRO CYCLING TEAM | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Donati Davide | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE ROOKIES | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Biesterbos Frits | TEAM PICNIC POSTNL | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Hobbs Noah | EF EDUCATION - EASYPOST | 1.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Bauhaus Phil | BAHRAIN VICTORIOUS | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Bennett Sam | PINARELLO-Q36.5 PRO CYCLING TEAM | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Plowright Jensen | ALPECIN-PREMIER TECH | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Mihkels Madis | EF EDUCATION - EASYPOST | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philipsen Jasper | 34.4% | 31.2% | 27.2% | 53.6% | 79.2% | n/a |
| 2 | Merlier Tim | 30.5% | 37.7% | 21.6% | 58.1% | 80.0% | n/a |
| 3 | Groenewegen Dylan | 6.9% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 23.7% | 61.0% | n/a |
| 4 | Wærenskjold Søren | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 19.8% | 55.8% | n/a |
| 5 | de Kleijn Arvid | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 21.6% | 58.2% | n/a |
| 6 | van Poppel Danny | 4.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 10.8% | 53.4% | n/a |
| 7 | Teutenberg Tim Torn | 3.8% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 10.4% | 43.4% | n/a |
| 8 | Lamperti Luke | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 8.5% | 41.9% | n/a |
| 9 | Kogut Oded | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 10.5% | 43.0% | n/a |
| 10 | De Schuyteneer Steffen | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 10.0% | 44.6% | n/a |
| 11 | Ackermann Pascal | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 7.7% | 39.4% | n/a |
| 12 | Marit Arne | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 6.9% | 48.5% | n/a |
| 13 | Aniolkowski Stanislaw | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 8.6% | 53.5% | n/a |
| 14 | Tesson Jason | 1.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 6.5% | 56.9% | n/a |
| 15 | Moschetti Matteo | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 7.8% | 51.7% | n/a |
| 16 | Donati Davide | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 8.5% | 38.6% | n/a |
| 17 | Biesterbos Frits | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 4.8% | 52.2% | n/a |
| 18 | Hobbs Noah | 1.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 9.2% | 43.2% | n/a |
| 19 | Bauhaus Phil | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 6.4% | 35.4% | n/a |
| 20 | Bennett Sam | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 5.4% | 26.2% | n/a |
| 21 | Plowright Jensen | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 5.3% | 29.6% | n/a |
| 22 | Mihkels Madis | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 6.3% | 36.2% | n/a |
| 23 | Dekker David | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 4.3% | 43.8% | n/a |
| 24 | Magagnotti Alessio | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 6.3% | 27.9% | n/a |
| 25 | Donaldson Robert | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.4% | 17.9% | n/a |
| 26 | Foldager Anders | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 4.8% | 31.3% | n/a |
| 27 | Müller Tobias | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 3.7% | 26.0% | n/a |
| 28 | Dupont Timothy | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 3.8% | 30.7% | n/a |
| 29 | Bevort Carl-Frederik | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 3.8% | 28.8% | n/a |
| 30 | Taminiaux Lionel | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 13.4% | n/a |
After the race
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merlier Tim | SOUDAL QUICK-STEP | 30.5% |
| 2 | Groenewegen Dylan | UNIBET ROSE ROCKETS | 6.9% |
| 3 | Wærenskjold Søren | UNO-X MOBILITY | 6.2% |
| 4 | de Kleijn Arvid | TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM | 5.7% |
| 5 | Philipsen Jasper | ALPECIN-PREMIER TECH | 34.4% |
| 6 | Allegaert Piet | COFIDIS | 0.0% |
| 7 | Biesterbos Frits | TEAM PICNIC POSTNL | 1.5% |
| 8 | Einhorn Itamar | NSN CYCLING TEAM | 0.3% |
| 9 | Hobbs Noah | EF EDUCATION - EASYPOST | 1.4% |
| 10 | Tesson Jason | TOTALENERGIES | 1.8% |
| Reading | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 30.50% | 37.73% | 21.63% | – |
Result rows are joined to the boards by FirstCycling rider id through the riders table. 0 row(s) needed the normalised-name fallback; 2 finisher(s) could not be matched at all.