One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals hindsight 81% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turner Ben | NETCOMPANY INEOS | 17.6% | 16.9% | 21.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Aranburu Alex | COFIDIS | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Godon Dorian | NETCOMPANY INEOS | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Grégoire Romain | GROUPAMA-FDJ UNITED | 4.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Oldani Stefano | CAJA RURAL-SEGUROS RGA | 4.5% | 2.6% | 6.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Cavia Daniel | BURGOS-BURPELLET-BH | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Adrià Roger | MOVISTAR TEAM | 3.5% | 2.1% | 4.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Scaroni Cristian | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Morgado António | UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Tesfazion Natnael | MOVISTAR TEAM | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Cosnefroy Benoît | UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG | 1.9% | 4.9% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Crescioli Ludovico | TEAM POLTI VISITMALTA | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Darder Sergi | CAJA RURAL-SEGUROS RGA | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Vendrame Andrea | TEAM JAYCO ALULA | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Barrenetxea Jon | MOVISTAR TEAM | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Boichis Adrien | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Christen Jan | UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turner Ben | 17.6% | 16.9% | 21.9% | 40.1% | 68.3% | n/a |
| 2 | Aranburu Alex | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 23.8% | 69.1% | n/a |
| 3 | Godon Dorian | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 21.5% | 49.8% | n/a |
| 4 | Grégoire Romain | 4.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 19.7% | 54.2% | n/a |
| 5 | Oldani Stefano | 4.5% | 2.6% | 6.0% | 15.6% | 58.1% | n/a |
| 6 | Cavia Daniel | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 13.3% | 50.7% | n/a |
| 7 | Adrià Roger | 3.5% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 9.8% | 48.5% | n/a |
| 8 | Scaroni Cristian | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 11.5% | 46.5% | n/a |
| 9 | Morgado António | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 16.1% | 45.5% | n/a |
| 10 | Tesfazion Natnael | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 7.9% | 49.4% | n/a |
| 11 | Cosnefroy Benoît | 1.9% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 13.9% | 44.9% | n/a |
| 12 | Crescioli Ludovico | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 28.1% | n/a |
| 13 | Darder Sergi | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 39.3% | n/a |
| 14 | Vendrame Andrea | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 8.4% | 48.9% | n/a |
| 15 | Barrenetxea Jon | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 35.1% | n/a |
| 16 | Boichis Adrien | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 7.0% | 34.7% | n/a |
| 17 | Christen Jan | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 8.7% | 36.4% | n/a |
| 18 | Molenaar Alex | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 27.0% | n/a |
| 19 | Magli Filippo | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 35.6% | n/a |
| 20 | Ballerini Davide | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 8.5% | 36.9% | n/a |
| 21 | Martín Gotzon | 0.8% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 36.0% | n/a |
| 22 | Vlasov Aleksandr | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 13.2% | n/a |
| 23 | Fagundez Eric | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 20.1% | n/a |
| 24 | Nerurkar Lukas | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 32.3% | n/a |
| 25 | Delettre Alexandre | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 20.6% | n/a |
| 26 | Velasco Simone | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 21.5% | n/a |
| 27 | Donnenwirth Tom | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 2.6% | 29.1% | n/a |
| 28 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 10.7% | n/a |
| 29 | Tiberi Antonio | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 19.4% | n/a |
| 30 | Rondel Mathys | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 12.1% | n/a |
After the race
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izagirre Ion | COFIDIS | 0.1% |
| 2 | Pellizzari Giulio | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE | 0.1% |
| 3 | Honore Mikkel | EF EDUCATION - EASYPOST | 0.3% |
| 4 | Storer Michael | TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM | 0.0% |
| 5 | Hoelgaard Markus | UNO-X MOBILITY | 0.1% |
| 6 | Hindley Jai | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE | 0.0% |
| 7 | Delbove Joris | TOTALENERGIES | 0.0% |
| 8 | Tiberi Antonio | BAHRAIN VICTORIOUS | 0.4% |
| 9 | Rondel Mathys | TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM | 0.4% |
| 10 | Godon Dorian | NETCOMPANY INEOS | 4.9% |
| Reading | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 0.12% | 0.10% | 0.16% | – |
Result rows are joined to the boards by FirstCycling rider id through the riders table. 0 row(s) needed the normalised-name fallback; 2 finisher(s) could not be matched at all.