One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals own history 107% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipsen Jasper | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 19.3% | 15.2% | 19.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Brennan Matthew | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 17.7% | 26.6% | 14.4% | n/a | – | – |
| De Lie Arnaud | Lotto-Intermarché | 12.0% | 10.2% | 11.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Kooij Olav | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Merlier Tim | Soudal Quick-Step | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Meeus Jordi | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Pedersen Mads | Lidl-Trek | 5.0% | 6.5% | 4.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Groenewegen Dylan | Unibet Rose Rockets | 3.7% | 5.3% | 3.0% | n/a | – | – |
| de Kleijn Arvid | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Wærenskjold Søren | Uno-X Mobility | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Fretin Milan | Cofidis | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Vernon Ethan | NSN Cycling Team | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| van Poppel Danny | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.9% | 0.4% | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Biesterbos Frits | Team Picnic PostNL | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Walscheid Max | Lidl-Trek | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Bol Cees | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Moschetti Matteo | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Askey Lewis | NSN Cycling Team | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Aniolkowski Stanislaw | Cofidis | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Lamperti Luke | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Pluimers Rick | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philipsen Jasper | 19.3% | 15.2% | 19.1% | 32.5% | 59.0% | n/a |
| 2 | Brennan Matthew | 17.7% | 26.6% | 14.4% | 48.1% | 67.1% | n/a |
| 3 | De Lie Arnaud | 12.0% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 26.2% | 59.7% | n/a |
| 4 | Kooij Olav | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 23.2% | 43.9% | n/a |
| 5 | Merlier Tim | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 18.8% | 43.1% | n/a |
| 6 | Meeus Jordi | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 18.8% | 48.7% | n/a |
| 7 | Pedersen Mads | 5.0% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 18.2% | 43.1% | n/a |
| 8 | Groenewegen Dylan | 3.7% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 13.4% | 38.2% | n/a |
| 9 | de Kleijn Arvid | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 11.0% | 35.8% | n/a |
| 10 | Wærenskjold Søren | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 9.0% | 40.2% | n/a |
| 11 | Fretin Milan | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 9.6% | 40.6% | n/a |
| 12 | Vernon Ethan | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 9.4% | 32.2% | n/a |
| 13 | van Poppel Danny | 1.9% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 7.2% | 42.0% | n/a |
| 14 | Biesterbos Frits | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 9.5% | 49.1% | n/a |
| 15 | Walscheid Max | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 9.1% | 27.6% | n/a |
| 16 | Bol Cees | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 17.7% | n/a |
| 17 | Moschetti Matteo | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 9.6% | 43.5% | n/a |
| 18 | Askey Lewis | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 3.9% | 23.0% | n/a |
| 19 | Aniolkowski Stanislaw | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 7.4% | 40.0% | n/a |
| 20 | Lamperti Luke | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 4.0% | 29.5% | n/a |
| 21 | Pluimers Rick | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 4.6% | 38.5% | n/a |
| 22 | De Schuyteneer Steffen | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 4.9% | 31.3% | n/a |
| 23 | Thijssen Gerben | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 4.2% | 41.7% | n/a |
| 24 | Hobbs Noah | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 3.3% | 22.8% | n/a |
| 25 | Hofstetter Hugo | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 35.4% | n/a |
| 26 | Gachignard Thomas | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 7.7% | n/a |
| 27 | Marit Arne | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 23.4% | n/a |
| 28 | Taminiaux Lionel | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 8.5% | n/a |
| 29 | Turgis Anthony | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 18.4% | n/a |
| 30 | Van Asbroeck Tom | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 17.9% | n/a |
After the race
| Pos | Rider | Team | Own history win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kooij Olav | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 7.2% |
| 2 | Meeus Jordi | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 5.8% |
| 3 | Biesterbos Frits | Team Picnic PostNL | 1.8% |
| 4 | Turgis Anthony | Team TotalEnergies | 0.3% |
| 5 | Hofstetter Hugo | NSN Cycling Team | 0.4% |
| 6 | Dauphin Florian | Team TotalEnergies | 0.1% |
| 7 | Fretin Milan | Cofidis | 2.2% |
| 8 | Philipsen Jasper | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 19.3% |
| 9 | Wærenskjold Søren | Uno-X Mobility | 2.8% |
| 10 | de Kleijn Arvid | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 2.9% |
| Reading | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own history | 7.17% | 8.40% | 6.40% | – |
Result rows are joined to the boards by FirstCycling rider id through the riders table. 0 row(s) needed the normalised-name fallback; 2 finisher(s) could not be matched at all.