The same production stack priced under 1 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Hindsight (post-hoc) 78% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnier Paul | Soudal Quick-Step | 63.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Milan Matteo | Groupama-FDJ United | 5.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Stolic Mihajlo | Bahrain Victorious Development Team | 1.4% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magnier Paul | 63.3% | 46.9% | 85.2% | 66.1% | 82.3% | n/a |
| 2 | Milan Matteo | 5.2% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 25.0% | 58.2% | n/a |
| 3 | Stolic Mihajlo | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 9.7% | 44.4% | n/a |
| 4 | Bittman Adam | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 5.0% | 32.3% | n/a |
| 5 | Biermans Jenthe | 0.7% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 6.4% | 34.8% | n/a |
| 6 | Walls Matthew | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 4.2% | 33.1% | n/a |
| 7 | Neuman Dominik | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 4.2% | 40.2% | n/a |
| 8 | Capra Thomas | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 4.5% | 32.2% | n/a |
| 9 | Källberg Axel | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 4.1% | 40.5% | n/a |
| 10 | Bravo Henrique | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 3.1% | 23.2% | n/a |
| 11 | Evertsen-Hegreberg Simen | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 5.5% | 41.7% | n/a |
| 12 | Haluska Martin | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 5.4% | 28.2% | n/a |
| 13 | Barthe Cyril | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 3.5% | 30.8% | n/a |
| 14 | Villa Giacomo | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 3.4% | 36.2% | n/a |
| 15 | Greenwell Samuel | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 3.6% | 28.1% | n/a |
| 16 | Agnoletto Blake | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 4.4% | 25.2% | n/a |
| 17 | Consolidani Leonardo | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 3.8% | 27.8% | n/a |
| 18 | Terrier Lucas | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 3.9% | 30.2% | n/a |
| 19 | Dubois Yann | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 24.2% | n/a |
| 20 | Novak Samuel | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 15.9% | n/a |
| 21 | Vanicek Simon | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 12.0% | n/a |
| 22 | Ilski Szymon | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 15.6% | n/a |
| 23 | Kjeldsand Karl Emil | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 14.8% | n/a |
| 24 | Slock Liam | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 11.2% | n/a |
| 25 | Cisneros Said | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 8.0% | n/a |
| 26 | Pekala Piotr | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 12.1% | n/a |
| 27 | Kull Robin | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 11.8% | n/a |
| 28 | Quadriglia Davide | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 16.0% | n/a |
| 29 | Fortin Filippo | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 5.8% | n/a |
| 30 | van Gestel Dries | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 3.3% | 11.4% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magnier Paul | Soudal Quick-Step | 63.3% |
| 2 | Biermans Jenthe | Cofidis | 0.7% |
| 3 | Granberg Sander | Team Drali-Repsol | 0.0% |
| 4 | Villa Giacomo | Biesse-Carrera Premac | 0.2% |
| 5 | Milan Matteo | Groupama-FDJ United | 5.2% |
| 6 | Capra Thomas | Bahrain Victorious Development Team | 0.4% |
| 7 | Fortin Filippo | Hrinkow Advarics | 0.1% |
| 8 | Källberg Axel | Lucky Sport Cycling Team | 0.3% |
| 9 | Neuman Dominik | ATT Investments | 0.5% |
| 10 | Slock Liam | Lotto-Intermarché | 0.1% |
4 riders in the top 15 are shown under a provisional identity pending reconciliation: PAKOT András Gusztáv, KADLEC Milan, PAKOT András Gusztáv, KADLEC Milan.
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 63.28% | – |