The same production stack priced under 1 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Hindsight (post-hoc) 92% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnier Paul | Soudal Quick-Step | 52.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Van Eetvelt Lennert | Lotto-Intermarché | 4.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Biermans Jenthe | Cofidis | 3.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Milan Matteo | Groupama-FDJ United | 2.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Thomas Benjamin | Cofidis | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Pekala Piotr | ATT Investments | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Novak Samuel | Tirol KTM Cycling Team | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Meehan Jamie | Cofidis | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Källberg Axel | Lucky Sport Cycling Team | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Decomble Maxime | Groupama-FDJ United | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Slock Liam | Lotto-Intermarché | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Bravo Henrique | Soudal Quick-Step | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magnier Paul | 52.2% | 47.8% | 58.0% | 68.4% | 79.6% | n/a |
| 2 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 12.6% | 51.9% | n/a |
| 3 | Biermans Jenthe | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 16.3% | 45.4% | n/a |
| 4 | Milan Matteo | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 13.4% | 39.7% | n/a |
| 5 | Thomas Benjamin | 2.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 15.6% | 46.6% | n/a |
| 6 | Pekala Piotr | 2.2% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 47.5% | n/a |
| 7 | Novak Samuel | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 8.5% | 52.2% | n/a |
| 8 | Meehan Jamie | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 5.5% | 50.0% | n/a |
| 9 | Källberg Axel | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 8.3% | 62.6% | n/a |
| 10 | Decomble Maxime | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 5.0% | 34.0% | n/a |
| 11 | Slock Liam | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 4.4% | 44.4% | n/a |
| 12 | Bravo Henrique | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 4.2% | 30.1% | n/a |
| 13 | Barthe Cyril | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 6.5% | 36.8% | n/a |
| 14 | Villa Giacomo | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 6.1% | 56.6% | n/a |
| 15 | Kaczmarek Jakub | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 5.3% | 47.8% | n/a |
| 16 | Martinsen Toralf Rydningen | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 4.3% | 16.5% | n/a |
| 17 | van Gestel Dries | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 6.9% | 28.8% | n/a |
| 18 | Capra Thomas | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 6.2% | 31.0% | n/a |
| 19 | Dubois Yann | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 25.5% | n/a |
| 20 | Lampaert Yves | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 4.1% | 22.1% | n/a |
| 21 | Consolidani Leonardo | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 21.4% | n/a |
| 22 | Neuman Dominik | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 17.3% | n/a |
| 23 | Kench Josh | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 2.8% | n/a |
| 24 | Cisneros Said | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 11.8% | n/a |
| 25 | Ginter Nicolas | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 8.9% | n/a |
| 26 | Carr Simon | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.8% | n/a |
| 27 | Agostinacchio Filippo | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 8.7% | n/a |
| 28 | Van Gils Lucas | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.5% | n/a |
| 29 | Verhoeff Stefan | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 7.4% | n/a |
| 30 | Ridolfo Filippo | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 8.3% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fetter Erik | Team United Shipping | 0.0% |
| 2 | Skok Anze | Kolesarski Klub Novo Mesto | 0.0% |
| 3 | Magnier Paul | Soudal Quick-Step | 52.2% |
| 4 | Maciejuk Kacper | Voster Team | 0.0% |
| 5 | Nielsen Max | Lucky Sport Cycling Team | 0.0% |
| 6 | Milan Matteo | Groupama-FDJ United | 2.7% |
| 7 | Neuman Dominik | ATT Investments | 0.4% |
| 8 | Biermans Jenthe | Cofidis | 3.9% |
| 9 | Villa Giacomo | Biesse-Carrera Premac | 0.9% |
| 10 | Capra Thomas | Bahrain Victorious Development Team | 0.6% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 0.04% | – |