The same production stack priced under 1 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Hindsight (post-hoc) 90% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnier Paul | Soudal Quick-Step | 15.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Van Eetvelt Lennert | Lotto-Intermarché | 10.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Slock Liam | Lotto-Intermarché | 7.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Thomas Benjamin | Cofidis | 6.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Meehan Jamie | Cofidis | 5.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Decomble Maxime | Groupama-FDJ United | 5.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Biermans Jenthe | Cofidis | 3.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Pekala Piotr | ATT Investments | 3.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Marivoet Duarte | Lotto-Intermarché | 3.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Kepplinger Rainer | Bahrain Victorious Development Team | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Källberg Axel | Lucky Sport Cycling Team | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Bravo Henrique | Soudal Quick-Step | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Martinsen Toralf Rydningen | Team Drali-Repsol | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Carr Simon | Cofidis | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Milan Matteo | Groupama-FDJ United | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| van Gestel Dries | Soudal Quick-Step | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magnier Paul | 15.8% | 21.0% | 16.2% | 38.9% | 57.0% | n/a |
| 2 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | 10.9% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 28.3% | 67.9% | n/a |
| 3 | Slock Liam | 7.0% | 3.4% | 8.7% | 13.9% | 57.3% | n/a |
| 4 | Thomas Benjamin | 6.9% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 25.0% | 58.1% | n/a |
| 5 | Meehan Jamie | 5.9% | 2.5% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 53.7% | n/a |
| 6 | Decomble Maxime | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 16.9% | 55.9% | n/a |
| 7 | Biermans Jenthe | 3.6% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 8.2% | 30.4% | n/a |
| 8 | Pekala Piotr | 3.4% | 1.8% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 45.6% | n/a |
| 9 | Marivoet Duarte | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 9.4% | 35.0% | n/a |
| 10 | Kepplinger Rainer | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 22.1% | n/a |
| 11 | Källberg Axel | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 7.3% | 58.8% | n/a |
| 12 | Bravo Henrique | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 6.4% | 41.4% | n/a |
| 13 | Martinsen Toralf Rydningen | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 6.7% | 30.5% | n/a |
| 14 | Carr Simon | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 5.1% | 15.5% | n/a |
| 15 | Milan Matteo | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 5.5% | 20.8% | n/a |
| 16 | van Gestel Dries | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 4.2% | 15.5% | n/a |
| 17 | Novak Samuel | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 4.6% | 42.1% | n/a |
| 18 | Barthe Cyril | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 4.4% | 31.8% | n/a |
| 19 | Kaczmarek Jakub | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 38.9% | n/a |
| 20 | Capra Thomas | 0.9% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 20.1% | n/a |
| 21 | Lampaert Yves | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 4.7% | 26.8% | n/a |
| 22 | Villa Giacomo | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 43.4% | n/a |
| 23 | Daumas Rémi | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 3.4% | 17.9% | n/a |
| 24 | Joalland Yaël | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 4.1% | 28.5% | n/a |
| 25 | Agostinacchio Filippo | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 17.9% | n/a |
| 26 | Consolidani Leonardo | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 25.3% | n/a |
| 27 | Neuman Dominik | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 20.5% | n/a |
| 28 | Dubois Yann | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 2.9% | 32.2% | n/a |
| 29 | Martinsen Georg Rydningen | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 17.1% | n/a |
| 30 | Place Maxence | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 13.1% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | Lotto-Intermarché | 10.9% |
| 2 | Bravo Henrique | Soudal Quick-Step | 1.6% |
| 3 | Meehan Jamie | Cofidis | 5.9% |
| 4 | Decomble Maxime | Groupama-FDJ United | 5.9% |
| 5 | Kepplinger Rainer | Bahrain Victorious Development Team | 1.9% |
| 6 | Daumas Rémi | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.7% |
| 7 | Riska Richard | Hrinkow Advarics | 0.1% |
| 8 | Rosato Giacomo | Bahrain Victorious Development Team | 0.3% |
| 9 | Zoidl Riccardo | Hrinkow Advarics | 0.2% |
| 10 | Martinsen Georg Rydningen | Team Drali-Repsol | 0.4% |
1 rider in the top 15 is shown under a provisional identity pending reconciliation: CISNEROS DIAZ DE LEON Jose Said.
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 10.87% | – |