One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
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The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals own history 126% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merlier Tim | Soudal Quick-Step | 41.7% | 51.1% | 30.8% | n/a | – | – |
| De Lie Arnaud | Lotto-Intermarché | 14.2% | 12.9% | 11.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Fretin Milan | Cofidis | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Vernon Ethan | NSN Cycling Team | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Groenewegen Dylan | Unibet Rose Rockets | 8.6% | 9.5% | 6.7% | n/a | – | – |
| de Kleijn Arvid | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | n/a | – | – |
| van den Berg Marijn | EF Education-EasyPost | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | n/a | – | – |
| De Schuyteneer Steffen | Lotto-Intermarché | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Thijssen Gerben | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 3.3% | 1.2% | 3.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Penhoët Paul | Groupama-FDJ United | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Biesterbos Frits | Team Picnic PostNL | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Aniolkowski Stanislaw | Cofidis | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Ackermann Pascal | Team Jayco-AlUla | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Tesson Jason | Team TotalEnergies | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Dekker David | BEAT CC p/b Saxo | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Mozzato Luca | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Pluimers Rick | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Gruel Thibaud | Groupama-FDJ United | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merlier Tim | 41.7% | 51.1% | 30.8% | 70.0% | 85.6% | n/a |
| 2 | De Lie Arnaud | 14.2% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 25.4% | 59.8% | n/a |
| 3 | Fretin Milan | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 29.3% | 69.3% | n/a |
| 4 | Vernon Ethan | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 25.3% | 56.3% | n/a |
| 5 | Groenewegen Dylan | 8.6% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 27.2% | 60.0% | n/a |
| 6 | de Kleijn Arvid | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 22.1% | 55.9% | n/a |
| 7 | van den Berg Marijn | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 16.0% | 57.6% | n/a |
| 8 | De Schuyteneer Steffen | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 9.1% | 47.6% | n/a |
| 9 | Thijssen Gerben | 3.3% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 8.3% | 47.9% | n/a |
| 10 | Penhoët Paul | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 10.6% | 53.4% | n/a |
| 11 | Biesterbos Frits | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 8.2% | 55.5% | n/a |
| 12 | Aniolkowski Stanislaw | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 8.9% | 54.4% | n/a |
| 13 | Ackermann Pascal | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 8.9% | 41.9% | n/a |
| 14 | Tesson Jason | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 5.2% | 49.3% | n/a |
| 15 | Dekker David | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 6.2% | 54.7% | n/a |
| 16 | Mozzato Luca | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 4.8% | 41.1% | n/a |
| 17 | Pluimers Rick | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 8.4% | 48.1% | n/a |
| 18 | Gruel Thibaud | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 5.7% | 45.1% | n/a |
| 19 | Foldager Anders | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 5.5% | 38.4% | n/a |
| 20 | Donaldson Robert | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 23.1% | n/a |
| 21 | Einhorn Itamar | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 4.4% | 28.2% | n/a |
| 22 | Müller Tobias | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 28.9% | n/a |
| 23 | Stewart Jake | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 24.3% | n/a |
| 24 | Dupont Timothy | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 29.4% | n/a |
| 25 | Turgis Anthony | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 23.6% | n/a |
| 26 | Huens Axel | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 33.6% | n/a |
| 27 | Taminiaux Lionel | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 14.0% | n/a |
| 28 | Van Asbroeck Tom | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 37.1% | n/a |
| 29 | Albanese Vincenzo | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 21.2% | n/a |
| 30 | Giddings Joshua | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 27.4% | n/a |
After the race
The race hasn't been settled yet — this section fills in once the results archive lands under results/race/.