GC tracker — the favourites, stage by stage

Model win = the blended pre-race heads with live form and the DNF-adjusted active field. Read it against the book column with care: the blend is a set of per-rider marginals and sums to 142% over the field, not to one book, so this is a directional comparison and not a like-for-like price — divide through by that total before calling anything an edge. Only the outlook head has seen the race: on a GC target the state feeds that head alone and the main heads stay pre-race, so a rider who has already lost an hour still carries his pre-race price in the model-win column while the outlook column has him at a dash. Read the outlook as "how safe is this position", not as odds.

The official classification after each stage, from the FirstCycling results archive — place, with the gap to the leader beneath it. Every rider who has held a top-10 place, ordered by the current standing; "out" = no longer classified.

Model GC win probability (blend) at each checkpoint — every rider who has appeared in a top-10, ordered by the current board. Bold = inside that evening's top-10; "out" = no longer in the race when that opinion was logged. 🟡 names the actual race leader at each checkpoint. Columns are labelled by the stage the road had reached, which is what the state was built from. The row is close to flat by construction — these heads price the final GC from form and the reference editions, and never see the standings — so treat this table as the baseline the state-aware head below is moving against. The road is a stage ahead of the board here — stage 21 is in the results archive, while the newest logged opinion still sees state through stage 20; tonight's refresh closes the gap.

The GC outlook head only — the one head that sees the race state (standings, gaps, stages remaining) rather than pricing the race from its pre-race form. It scores contenders only, so a rider it never priced shows a dash, and its per-rider probabilities do not sum to one book: read a row as "how safe does this position look", and read it against the blend above to see where the state has pulled the model away from its pre-race opinion.