The same production stack priced under 4 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
| Rider | Team | Break survives | Reduced sprint | Late move | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | – | 5.5% | 29.9% | 11.9% | 41.00 | 1.6% | +28.3pp |
| Philipsen Jasper | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 0.1% | 15.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 21.00 | 3.1% | +12.4pp |
| Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | – | 1.0% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 401.00 | 0.2% | +10.8pp |
| Kooij Olav | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 0.1% | 9.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +8.8pp |
| De Lie Arnaud | Lotto-Intermarché | 0.3% | 7.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Pedersen Mads | Lidl-Trek | 1.0% | 6.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 4.50 | 14.3% | -8.1pp |
| van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 2.8% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 9.00 | 7.2% | -1.3pp |
| del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | – | 0.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +5.1pp |
| Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | – | 1.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +4.4pp |
| Girmay Biniam | NSN Cycling Team | 0.1% | 4.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 26.00 | 2.5% | +1.9pp |
| Lipowitz Florian | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | – | 0.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 801.00 | 0.1% | +2.8pp |
| Kanter Max | XDS Astana Team | 0.0% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 201.00 | 0.3% | +2.3pp |
| Vingegaard Jonas | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | – | 0.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 401.00 | 0.2% | +2.4pp |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | – | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +1.5pp |
| Wærenskjold Søren | Uno-X Mobility | 0.2% | 2.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 301.00 | 0.2% | +2.2pp |
| Oldani Stefano | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 0.3% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 201.00 | 0.3% | +1.5pp |
| Merlier Tim | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 401.00 | 0.2% | +1.6pp |
| Grégoire Romain | Groupama-FDJ United | – | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 17.00 | 3.8% | -2.3pp |
| Askey Lewis | NSN Cycling Team | 0.2% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 301.00 | 0.2% | +1.2pp |
| Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | – | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 251.00 | 0.3% | +1.1pp |
| Matthews Michael | Team Jayco-AlUla | 0.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 26.00 | 2.5% | -1.1pp |
| Aranburu Alex | Cofidis | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 41.00 | 1.6% | -0.3pp |
| Vacek Mathias | Lidl-Trek | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 10.00 | 6.4% | -5.3pp |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | – | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 301.00 | 0.2% | +1.0pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 5.4% | 27.3% | n/a |
| 2 | Uijtdebroeks Cian | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 3.1% | 40.4% | n/a |
| 3 | Kuss Sepp | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 3.9% | 25.7% | n/a |
| 4 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 3.9% | 43.6% | 251.00 |
| 5 | Bernal Egan | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 3.8% | 29.6% | 201.00 |
| 6 | Higuita Sergio | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 27.9% | 301.00 |
| 7 | Storer Michael | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 5.5% | 35.2% | 301.00 |
| 8 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 7.7% | 17.4% | 9.00 |
| 9 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 3.3% | 18.8% | 201.00 |
| 10 | Jegat Jordan | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 5.8% | 37.5% | 251.00 |
| 11 | McNulty Brandon | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 17.6% | 151.00 |
| 12 | Foss Tobias | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 7.1% | 101.00 |
| 13 | O'Connor Ben | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 14.7% | 301.00 |
| 14 | Harper Chris | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 10.3% | 601.00 |
| 15 | Healy Ben | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 8.9% | 34.00 |
| 16 | Schmid Mauro | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 6.4% | 67.00 |
| 17 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 10.1% | 21.00 |
| 18 | Baudin Alex | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 20.1% | 151.00 |
| 19 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 31.3% | 101.00 |
| 20 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 9.9% | 81.00 |
| 21 | Izagirre Ion | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 9.0% | 201.00 |
| 22 | Plapp Lucas | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 8.6% | n/a |
| 23 | Tejada Harold | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 14.4% | 151.00 |
| 24 | Wellens Tim | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 4.5% | 67.00 |
| 25 | Aranburu Alex | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 5.8% | 41.00 |
| 26 | Tiberi Antonio | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 15.9% | 601.00 |
| 27 | Berckmoes Jenno | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 8.5% | 41.00 |
| 28 | Steinhauser Georg | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 8.7% | 501.00 |
| 29 | Vacek Mathias | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 7.6% | 10.00 |
| 30 | Paret-Peintre Aurélien | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 6.0% | 201.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philipsen Jasper | 15.5% | 15.5% | 16.4% | 28.7% | 45.9% | 21.00 |
| 2 | Kooij Olav | 9.6% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 14.1% | 23.3% | 81.00 |
| 3 | De Lie Arnaud | 7.9% | 3.7% | 9.5% | 15.9% | 42.7% | n/a |
| 4 | Pedersen Mads | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 17.2% | 38.8% | 4.50 |
| 5 | van der Poel Mathieu | 5.9% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 32.4% | 58.9% | 9.00 |
| 6 | Pogacar Tadej | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 19.8% | 53.3% | 41.00 |
| 7 | Girmay Biniam | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 14.9% | 45.3% | 26.00 |
| 8 | Kanter Max | 2.6% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 14.1% | 39.8% | 201.00 |
| 9 | Pidcock Tom | 2.4% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 6.5% | 42.8% | 67.00 |
| 10 | Wærenskjold Søren | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 7.2% | 26.8% | 301.00 |
| 11 | Oldani Stefano | 1.8% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 47.2% | 201.00 |
| 12 | Merlier Tim | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 7.1% | 20.3% | 401.00 |
| 13 | Askey Lewis | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 10.6% | 35.2% | 301.00 |
| 14 | Matthews Michael | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 6.4% | 29.5% | 26.00 |
| 15 | Aranburu Alex | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 7.0% | 44.5% | 41.00 |
| 16 | Evenepoel Remco | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 6.8% | 26.5% | 151.00 |
| 17 | Vacek Mathias | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 15.5% | 10.00 |
| 18 | Van Gils Maxim | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 4.8% | 19.0% | 21.00 |
| 19 | Grégoire Romain | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 5.4% | 27.5% | 17.00 |
| 20 | Seixas Paul | 1.0% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 6.7% | 34.4% | 401.00 |
| 21 | Wright Fred | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 19.0% | 151.00 |
| 22 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 13.0% | 51.00 |
| 23 | Bittner Pavel | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 5.0% | 24.6% | 301.00 |
| 24 | Gaviria Fernando | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 13.9% | n/a |
| 25 | Skjelmose Mattias | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 17.9% | 301.00 |
| 26 | Stuyven Jasper | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 24.8% | 67.00 |
| 27 | Ackermann Pascal | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 13.8% | n/a |
| 28 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 24.0% | 301.00 |
| 29 | Fretin Milan | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 17.3% | n/a |
| 30 | del Toro Isaac | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 2.4% | 17.0% | 81.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 29.9% | 34.8% | 32.7% | 57.3% | 78.1% | 41.00 |
| 2 | Seixas Paul | 11.0% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 17.6% | 56.1% | 401.00 |
| 3 | del Toro Isaac | 5.9% | 2.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 47.2% | 81.00 |
| 4 | Evenepoel Remco | 4.8% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 12.0% | 44.5% | 151.00 |
| 5 | Lipowitz Florian | 2.9% | 1.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 38.3% | 801.00 |
| 6 | Vingegaard Jonas | 2.6% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 6.5% | 39.0% | 401.00 |
| 7 | Pidcock Tom | 2.2% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 44.3% | 67.00 |
| 8 | van der Poel Mathieu | 2.1% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 11.7% | 35.3% | 9.00 |
| 9 | Grégoire Romain | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 7.2% | 38.4% | 17.00 |
| 10 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 6.5% | 55.6% | 301.00 |
| 11 | Martinez Lenny | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 4.0% | 33.3% | 251.00 |
| 12 | Ayuso Juan | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 3.9% | 29.9% | 301.00 |
| 13 | Yates Adam | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 20.2% | n/a |
| 14 | Arensman Thymen | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 28.8% | n/a |
| 15 | Jorgenson Matteo | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 3.5% | 18.4% | 201.00 |
| 16 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 22.1% | 51.00 |
| 17 | Carapaz Richard | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 3.1% | 46.8% | 301.00 |
| 18 | Skjelmose Mattias | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 3.2% | 29.0% | 301.00 |
| 19 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 31.2% | n/a |
| 20 | Pedersen Mads | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.8% | 12.0% | 4.50 |
| 21 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 2.8% | 44.4% | 251.00 |
| 22 | Hindley Jai | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 2.6% | 19.2% | n/a |
| 23 | Riccitello Matthew | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 22.1% | n/a |
| 24 | Gee Derek | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 3.4% | 15.1% | 301.00 |
| 25 | Uijtdebroeks Cian | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 31.0% | n/a |
| 26 | Aranburu Alex | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 13.5% | 41.00 |
| 27 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 8.8% | 21.00 |
| 28 | Higuita Sergio | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 28.4% | 301.00 |
| 29 | De Lie Arnaud | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 16.0% | n/a |
| 30 | Foss Tobias | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 15.1% | 101.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 11.9% | 11.6% | 18.2% | 35.0% | 58.9% | 41.00 |
| 2 | Seixas Paul | 9.1% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 18.7% | 50.4% | 401.00 |
| 3 | del Toro Isaac | 5.0% | 1.5% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 29.9% | 81.00 |
| 4 | Evenepoel Remco | 3.4% | 2.0% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 34.2% | 151.00 |
| 5 | Lipowitz Florian | 2.7% | 1.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 35.5% | 801.00 |
| 6 | Vingegaard Jonas | 2.5% | 1.6% | 4.1% | 11.6% | 39.3% | 401.00 |
| 7 | Martinez Lenny | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 27.4% | 251.00 |
| 8 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 7.2% | 41.6% | 301.00 |
| 9 | Ayuso Juan | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 10.1% | 48.8% | 301.00 |
| 10 | Yates Adam | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 19.7% | n/a |
| 11 | Pidcock Tom | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 7.6% | 42.5% | 67.00 |
| 12 | Vauquelin Kévin | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 4.1% | 20.0% | 51.00 |
| 13 | Arensman Thymen | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 4.2% | 29.8% | n/a |
| 14 | Skjelmose Mattias | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 22.8% | 301.00 |
| 15 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 3.7% | 14.1% | 9.00 |
| 16 | Hindley Jai | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 3.7% | 19.6% | n/a |
| 17 | Riccitello Matthew | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 3.7% | 21.5% | n/a |
| 18 | Gee Derek | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 4.2% | 21.3% | 301.00 |
| 19 | Grégoire Romain | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 4.3% | 16.9% | 17.00 |
| 20 | Carapaz Richard | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 4.1% | 41.1% | 301.00 |
| 21 | Jorgenson Matteo | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 3.9% | 15.0% | 201.00 |
| 22 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 4.3% | 28.9% | n/a |
| 23 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 34.1% | 251.00 |
| 24 | Uijtdebroeks Cian | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 29.2% | n/a |
| 25 | Kuss Sepp | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 3.9% | 19.2% | n/a |
| 26 | Higuita Sergio | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 23.9% | 301.00 |
| 27 | Bernal Egan | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.9% | 23.9% | 201.00 |
| 28 | Izagirre Ion | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 14.5% | 201.00 |
| 29 | McNulty Brandon | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 14.8% | 151.00 |
| 30 | Aranburu Alex | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 11.4% | 41.00 |
Angle
Top 20 riders by the latest GC-model blend (tdf_gc.json) removed — captains don't get in the break. Remaining riders under the 'Break survives' read; the conditional column renormalizes their win probability over this pool (P(win | a non-GC rider wins), pool holds 21% of the unconditional book). The model can't see who actually makes the break — read this as a fitness-for-the-day ranking, not break-formation odds.
| Rider | Team | Break survives win p | P(win | break wins) | Book odds | Book devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.5% | 7.2% | n/a | – |
| Uijtdebroeks Cian | Movistar Team | 0.9% | 4.4% | n/a | – |
| Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.8% | 4.0% | n/a | – |
| Van Wilder Ilan | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.8% | 4.0% | 251 | 0.3% |
| Bernal Egan | Netcompany INEOS | 0.7% | 3.6% | 201 | 0.3% |
| Higuita Sergio | XDS Astana Team | 0.7% | 3.2% | 301 | 0.2% |
| Storer Michael | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 0.6% | 2.8% | 301 | 0.2% |
| van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 0.6% | 2.8% | 9 | 7.2% |
| Castrillo Pablo | Movistar Team | 0.5% | 2.6% | 201 | 0.3% |
| Jegat Jordan | Team TotalEnergies | 0.5% | 2.5% | 251 | 0.3% |
| McNulty Brandon | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 0.5% | 2.5% | 151 | 0.4% |
| Foss Tobias | Netcompany INEOS | 0.5% | 2.4% | 101 | 0.6% |
| O'Connor Ben | Team Jayco-AlUla | 0.5% | 2.4% | 301 | 0.2% |
| Harper Chris | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 0.5% | 2.3% | 601 | 0.1% |
Angle
Shortest book prices for the stage, with our blend win probability (and rank) under each scenario. 'free' = outside our top-20 GC pool, i.e. the type the peloton might let up the road.
| Rider | Book odds | Devig | Break survives | Reduced sprint | Late move | GC status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedersen Mads | 4.50 | 14.3% | 0.2% (#52) | 6.2% (#4) | 0.6% (#20) | free |
| van der Poel Mathieu | 9.00 | 7.2% | 0.6% (#28) | 5.9% (#5) | 2.1% (#8) | free |
| Vacek Mathias | 10.00 | 6.4% | 0.3% (#49) | 1.2% (#17) | 0.3% (#36) | free |
| Grégoire Romain | 17.00 | 3.8% | 0.8% (#24) | 1.0% (#19) | 1.5% (#9) | GC #18 |
| Van Gils Maxim | 21.00 | 3.1% | 0.4% (#37) | 1.1% (#18) | 0.4% (#27) | free |
| Philipsen Jasper | 21.00 | 3.1% | 0.0% (#120) | 15.5% (#1) | 0.1% (#64) | free |
| Simmons Quinn | 23.00 | 2.8% | 0.1% (#73) | 0.1% (#81) | 0.1% (#58) | free |
| Godon Dorian | 23.00 | 2.8% | 0.0% (#86) | 0.4% (#34) | 0.1% (#67) | free |
| Cort Magnus | 26.00 | 2.5% | 0.0% (#125) | 0.1% (#59) | 0.0% (#121) | free |
| Matthews Michael | 26.00 | 2.5% | 0.0% (#102) | 1.4% (#14) | 0.2% (#54) | free |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Break survives win p | Reduced sprint win p | Late move win p | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pedersen Mads | Lidl-Trek | 0.2% | 6.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| 2 | Simmons Quinn | Lidl-Trek | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 3 | García Raúl | Movistar Team | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 4 | Frigo Marco | NSN Cycling Team | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 5 | Debruyne Ramses | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS Cycling Team | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% |
| 7 | Quinn Sean | EF Education-EasyPost | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 8 | Træen Torstein | Uno-X Mobility | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9 | Castrillo Pablo | Movistar Team | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 10 | Vacek Mathias | Lidl-Trek | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Break survives | 0.21% | 14.32% |
| Reduced sprint | 6.23% | 14.32% |
| Late move | 0.65% | 14.32% |
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 0.42% | 14.32% |
Reflection
The road picked a hybrid none of the three reads named cleanly: a hard medium-mountain day that split into a front group of ten, then settled by a sprint out of that group. Pedersen out-kicked teammate Quinn Simmons and Raul Garcia at the line, with the peloton +2:27 (147s) back and the field shattered behind -- only the ten in the move, 29 riders inside ten minutes. It carried the break_survives terrain (2800m over five climbs, the last cresting 35km out) but the reduced_sprint winner-type -- a classics hard-man winning the gallop. Three Lidl-Trek riders made the ten (Pedersen 1st, Simmons 2nd, Vacek 10th), a team-built split, with GC man Vauquelin (6th) and several near-anonymous names -- Frigo, Debruyne, Sean Quinn, Traen -- filling it out.
Only one read classed Pedersen as a live winner: reduced_sprint gave him 6.23% (its #4), against break_survives 0.21% and late_move 0.65%. That was the right paradigm on winner-type -- but it still priced him at well under half the book's 14.32%, and its own top pick was Philipsen (15.5%), a pure sprinter the climbs dropped clean out of the front group. So even the read that found the winner hedged him behind the sprinters the terrain was always going to shed. The market, which had Pedersen outright favourite at 4.50, simply read the man better than we did.
Hindsight cut the opposite way to stage 3. Fed the five DB stages that actually finished like this one -- hard medium-mountain, a front group of ten, rolling 0.65 / mountain 0.34 -- the model returned a GC-climber board: Pogacar 11.9%, Seixas 9.1%, del Toro, Evenepoel, Vingegaard, with Pedersen only 31st (0.42%). Course knowledge of the terrain would have made the winner read worse, not better: the model equates 'hard medium-mountain' with 'climbers win' and has no representation for a classics sprinter strong enough to survive the front group and win its sprint. The binding constraint was rider-type, not course knowledge -- and the signal that worked came from picking references by winner archetype, not terrain. Carry forward: on medium-mountain days that can reduce to a hard front-group sprint, trust a winner-archetype read (hilly-classics hard-men) over a terrain-matched one, and don't let pure sprinters sit above the Pedersen/Vauquelin survivors -- the climbs drop the sprinters first. Quiet positive: Vauquelin (6th) was the one front-group rider every read rated, 12th even in hindsight, so the model's fitness read on the GC-puncheurs who bridge into these groups is tracking.