The same production stack priced under 5 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
| Rider | Team | Elite selection | Select group | Large group | Break survives | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 40.6% | 47.2% | 32.9% | – | 39.9% | 1.35 | 48.8% | -1.5pp |
| Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 13.0% | 12.7% | 6.5% | – | 7.8% | 41.00 | 1.6% | +11.4pp |
| Vingegaard Jonas | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 8.3% | 11.3% | 4.4% | – | 7.0% | 17.00 | 3.9% | +7.4pp |
| Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.9% | – | 7.9% | 26.00 | 2.5% | +8.0pp |
| del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | – | 6.5% | 15.00 | 4.4% | +2.1pp |
| Lipowitz Florian | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.6% | – | 5.3% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +5.5pp |
| Ayuso Juan | Lidl-Trek | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | – | 1.6% | 101.00 | 0.7% | +1.9pp |
| Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | – | 1.8% | 21.00 | 3.1% | -1.0pp |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | – | 1.2% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +0.9pp |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | – | 1.2% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +1.1pp |
| Arensman Thymen | Netcompany INEOS | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | – | 1.5% | 51.00 | 1.3% | +0.5pp |
| Gee Derek | Lidl-Trek | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | – | 1.1% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +1.2pp |
| Hindley Jai | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | – | 1.2% | 101.00 | 0.7% | +0.9pp |
| Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | – | 1.0% | 34.00 | 1.9% | -0.4pp |
| Yates Adam | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | – | 1.2% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +1.0pp |
| van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 501.00 | 0.1% | +1.3pp |
| Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | – | 1.4% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +1.0pp |
| Jorgenson Matteo | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | – | 1.2% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +0.9pp |
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 7.5% | 1.0% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +0.9pp |
| Grégoire Romain | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | – | 0.9% | 301.00 | 0.2% | +1.0pp |
| Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | – | 0.9% | 251.00 | 0.3% | +0.9pp |
| Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | – | 0.7% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +0.1pp |
| Uijtdebroeks Cian | Movistar Team | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 4.9% | 0.7% | 401.00 | 0.2% | +0.9pp |
| Paret-Peintre Valentin | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 15.00 | 4.4% | -4.1pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 40.6% | 50.7% | 31.9% | 73.6% | 88.4% | 1.35 |
| 2 | Evenepoel Remco | 13.0% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 26.5% | 67.9% | 41.00 |
| 3 | Seixas Paul | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 14.6% | 59.9% | 26.00 |
| 4 | Vingegaard Jonas | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 27.1% | 72.8% | 17.00 |
| 5 | Lipowitz Florian | 5.8% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 11.8% | 61.0% | 67.00 |
| 6 | del Toro Isaac | 5.4% | 1.9% | 5.5% | 10.9% | 50.2% | 15.00 |
| 7 | Martinez Lenny | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 5.2% | 35.1% | 21.00 |
| 8 | Ayuso Juan | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 5.4% | 40.3% | 101.00 |
| 9 | Hindley Jai | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 5.2% | 41.7% | 101.00 |
| 10 | Gee Derek | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 12.6% | 32.0% | 151.00 |
| 11 | Carapaz Richard | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 4.6% | 47.0% | 34.00 |
| 12 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 6.8% | 60.9% | 81.00 |
| 13 | Pidcock Tom | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 34.1% | 67.00 |
| 14 | Arensman Thymen | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 34.4% | 51.00 |
| 15 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 3.9% | 25.9% | 151.00 |
| 16 | Yates Adam | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 4.5% | 28.4% | 151.00 |
| 17 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 6.3% | 24.0% | 151.00 |
| 18 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 8.1% | 41.1% | 151.00 |
| 19 | Uijtdebroeks Cian | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 33.5% | 401.00 |
| 20 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 3.1% | 25.6% | 251.00 |
| 21 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 4.6% | 37.5% | 67.00 |
| 22 | Grégoire Romain | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 4.2% | 20.9% | 301.00 |
| 23 | Kuss Sepp | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 5.7% | 24.5% | 201.00 |
| 24 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 44.7% | 251.00 |
| 25 | Bernal Egan | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 3.5% | 26.1% | 81.00 |
| 26 | Higuita Sergio | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 3.1% | 23.7% | 201.00 |
| 27 | McNulty Brandon | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 19.4% | 151.00 |
| 28 | Healy Ben | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 8.1% | 51.00 |
| 29 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 3.5% | 7.1% | 501.00 |
| 30 | O'Connor Ben | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 14.8% | 81.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 47.2% | 51.1% | 35.5% | 75.7% | 90.0% | 1.35 |
| 2 | Evenepoel Remco | 12.7% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 32.1% | 75.3% | 41.00 |
| 3 | Vingegaard Jonas | 11.3% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 32.0% | 80.8% | 17.00 |
| 4 | Seixas Paul | 10.5% | 13.2% | 7.5% | 22.2% | 66.0% | 26.00 |
| 5 | Lipowitz Florian | 6.4% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 14.3% | 69.7% | 67.00 |
| 6 | del Toro Isaac | 5.7% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 10.6% | 62.9% | 15.00 |
| 7 | Ayuso Juan | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 7.8% | 51.7% | 101.00 |
| 8 | Martinez Lenny | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 6.7% | 44.1% | 21.00 |
| 9 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 8.2% | 60.5% | 81.00 |
| 10 | Gee Derek | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 14.4% | 33.1% | 151.00 |
| 11 | Carapaz Richard | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 5.4% | 50.5% | 34.00 |
| 12 | Hindley Jai | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 4.7% | 42.3% | 101.00 |
| 13 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 4.6% | 35.2% | 151.00 |
| 14 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 6.4% | 23.3% | 151.00 |
| 15 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 4.4% | 31.6% | 151.00 |
| 16 | Arensman Thymen | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 3.8% | 39.7% | 51.00 |
| 17 | Pidcock Tom | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 4.0% | 39.7% | 67.00 |
| 18 | Yates Adam | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 5.2% | 29.0% | 151.00 |
| 19 | Uijtdebroeks Cian | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 3.8% | 43.1% | 401.00 |
| 20 | Bernal Egan | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 4.1% | 29.2% | 81.00 |
| 21 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 4.4% | 39.6% | 67.00 |
| 22 | Kuss Sepp | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 5.3% | 25.4% | 201.00 |
| 23 | Grégoire Romain | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 4.6% | 19.7% | 301.00 |
| 24 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 43.9% | 251.00 |
| 25 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 25.9% | 251.00 |
| 26 | Higuita Sergio | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 24.4% | 201.00 |
| 27 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 3.4% | 25.9% | 151.00 |
| 28 | McNulty Brandon | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 19.3% | 151.00 |
| 29 | O'Connor Ben | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 18.9% | 81.00 |
| 30 | Healy Ben | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 7.0% | 51.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 32.9% | 48.7% | 27.0% | 66.2% | 83.5% | 1.35 |
| 2 | Seixas Paul | 8.9% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 51.6% | 26.00 |
| 3 | Evenepoel Remco | 6.5% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 11.6% | 45.1% | 41.00 |
| 4 | del Toro Isaac | 6.1% | 2.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 44.1% | 15.00 |
| 5 | Lipowitz Florian | 4.6% | 1.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 41.8% | 67.00 |
| 6 | Vingegaard Jonas | 4.4% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 10.2% | 46.7% | 17.00 |
| 7 | Pidcock Tom | 1.9% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 37.5% | 67.00 |
| 8 | Martinez Lenny | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 4.3% | 29.4% | 21.00 |
| 9 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.9% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 6.3% | 51.3% | 81.00 |
| 10 | Arensman Thymen | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 27.3% | 51.00 |
| 11 | Yates Adam | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 20.9% | 151.00 |
| 12 | van der Poel Mathieu | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 4.6% | 16.3% | 501.00 |
| 13 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 6.0% | 30.9% | 151.00 |
| 14 | Ayuso Juan | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 7.2% | 49.1% | 101.00 |
| 15 | Grégoire Romain | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 4.8% | 27.2% | 301.00 |
| 16 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 5.3% | 19.3% | 151.00 |
| 17 | Carapaz Richard | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 3.7% | 38.3% | 34.00 |
| 18 | Vauquelin Kévin | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 3.6% | 25.2% | 251.00 |
| 19 | Gee Derek | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 4.9% | 20.5% | 151.00 |
| 20 | Piganzoli Davide | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 4.5% | 27.7% | 67.00 |
| 21 | Hindley Jai | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 4.3% | 21.6% | 101.00 |
| 22 | Riccitello Matthew | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 25.7% | 151.00 |
| 23 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 34.6% | 251.00 |
| 24 | Uijtdebroeks Cian | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.7% | 33.5% | 401.00 |
| 25 | Pedersen Mads | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 3.1% | 7.4% | 801.00 |
| 26 | McNulty Brandon | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 15.4% | 151.00 |
| 27 | Izagirre Ion | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 17.5% | 151.00 |
| 28 | Aranburu Alex | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 10.0% | 601.00 |
| 29 | Higuita Sergio | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 24.1% | 201.00 |
| 30 | Bernal Egan | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 19.2% | 81.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 4.2% | 24.8% | 151.00 |
| 2 | Kuss Sepp | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 4.5% | 29.4% | 201.00 |
| 3 | Uijtdebroeks Cian | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.8% | 33.2% | 401.00 |
| 4 | Bernal Egan | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 5.0% | 25.2% | 81.00 |
| 5 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 38.3% | 251.00 |
| 6 | McNulty Brandon | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 16.4% | 151.00 |
| 7 | Higuita Sergio | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 22.7% | 201.00 |
| 8 | O'Connor Ben | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 15.7% | 81.00 |
| 9 | Healy Ben | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 7.5% | 51.00 |
| 10 | Foss Tobias | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 6.7% | 251.00 |
| 11 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 3.7% | 7.4% | 501.00 |
| 12 | Jegat Jordan | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 4.3% | 32.1% | 201.00 |
| 13 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 3.9% | 25.5% | 151.00 |
| 14 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 10.1% | 151.00 |
| 15 | Harper Chris | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 11.4% | 151.00 |
| 16 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 17.0% | 81.00 |
| 17 | Izagirre Ion | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 11.3% | 151.00 |
| 18 | Schmid Mauro | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 6.0% | 251.00 |
| 19 | Baudin Alex | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 16.4% | 34.00 |
| 20 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 12.1% | 15.00 |
| 21 | Storer Michael | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 18.6% | 81.00 |
| 22 | Tiberi Antonio | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 13.0% | 151.00 |
| 23 | Tejada Harold | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 10.1% | 151.00 |
| 24 | Wellens Tim | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 4.1% | 501.00 |
| 25 | Aranburu Alex | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 4.2% | 601.00 |
| 26 | Berckmoes Jenno | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 8.6% | n/a |
| 27 | Plapp Lucas | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.6% | 7.7% | n/a |
| 28 | Vacek Mathias | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 2.9% | 15.4% | 251.00 |
| 29 | Paret-Peintre Aurélien | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 5.1% | 401.00 |
| 30 | Steinhauser Georg | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 5.8% | 201.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 39.9% | 50.3% | 34.2% | 71.6% | 84.7% | 1.35 |
| 2 | Seixas Paul | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 53.6% | 26.00 |
| 3 | Evenepoel Remco | 7.8% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 16.8% | 52.5% | 41.00 |
| 4 | Vingegaard Jonas | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 22.6% | 67.4% | 17.00 |
| 5 | del Toro Isaac | 6.5% | 2.1% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 45.3% | 15.00 |
| 6 | Lipowitz Florian | 5.3% | 2.6% | 5.5% | 10.1% | 54.8% | 67.00 |
| 7 | Martinez Lenny | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 32.4% | 21.00 |
| 8 | Ayuso Juan | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 30.8% | 101.00 |
| 9 | Arensman Thymen | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 28.3% | 51.00 |
| 10 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 7.3% | 36.9% | 151.00 |
| 11 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 6.7% | 52.5% | 81.00 |
| 12 | Hindley Jai | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 4.0% | 29.7% | 101.00 |
| 13 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 4.9% | 21.8% | 151.00 |
| 14 | Yates Adam | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 23.0% | 151.00 |
| 15 | Pidcock Tom | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 32.0% | 67.00 |
| 16 | Gee Derek | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 6.9% | 22.6% | 151.00 |
| 17 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 3.4% | 23.8% | 151.00 |
| 18 | Carapaz Richard | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 4.5% | 41.6% | 34.00 |
| 19 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 26.0% | 251.00 |
| 20 | Grégoire Romain | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 4.4% | 24.1% | 301.00 |
| 21 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 3.1% | 32.1% | 251.00 |
| 22 | Uijtdebroeks Cian | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 3.9% | 33.6% | 401.00 |
| 23 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 4.5% | 8.9% | 501.00 |
| 24 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 5.5% | 38.2% | 67.00 |
| 25 | Kuss Sepp | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 4.8% | 23.4% | 201.00 |
| 26 | McNulty Brandon | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 2.9% | 23.4% | 151.00 |
| 27 | Bernal Egan | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 23.1% | 81.00 |
| 28 | Higuita Sergio | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 2.4% | 24.7% | 201.00 |
| 29 | Izagirre Ion | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 2.5% | 17.4% | 151.00 |
| 30 | Aranburu Alex | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 6.6% | 601.00 |
Angle
Top 20 riders by the latest GC-model blend (tdf_gc.json) removed — captains don't get in the break. Remaining riders under the 'Break survives' read; the conditional column renormalizes their win probability over this pool (P(win | a non-GC rider wins), pool holds 17% of the unconditional book). The model can't see who actually makes the break — read this as a fitness-for-the-day ranking, not break-formation odds.
| Rider | Team | Break survives win p | P(win | break wins) | Book odds | Book devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.2% | 7.5% | 151 | 0.4% |
| Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.8% | 5.1% | 201 | 0.3% |
| Uijtdebroeks Cian | Movistar Team | 0.8% | 4.9% | 401 | 0.2% |
| Bernal Egan | Netcompany INEOS | 0.7% | 4.2% | 81 | 0.8% |
| Van Wilder Ilan | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.6% | 3.8% | 251 | 0.3% |
| McNulty Brandon | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 0.5% | 3.1% | 151 | 0.4% |
| Higuita Sergio | XDS Astana Team | 0.5% | 3.1% | 201 | 0.3% |
| O'Connor Ben | Team Jayco-AlUla | 0.5% | 2.7% | 81 | 0.8% |
| Healy Ben | EF Education-EasyPost | 0.4% | 2.7% | 51 | 1.3% |
| Foss Tobias | Netcompany INEOS | 0.4% | 2.5% | 251 | 0.3% |
| van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 0.4% | 2.3% | 501 | 0.1% |
| Jegat Jordan | Team TotalEnergies | 0.4% | 2.3% | 201 | 0.3% |
| Van Eetvelt Lennert | Lotto-Intermarché | 0.4% | 2.2% | 151 | 0.4% |
| Van Gils Maxim | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 0.4% | 2.2% | 151 | 0.4% |
Angle
Shortest book prices for the stage, with our blend win probability (and rank) under each scenario. 'free' = outside our top-20 GC pool, i.e. the type the peloton might let up the road.
| Rider | Book odds | Devig | Elite selection | Select group | Large group | Break survives | GC status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogacar Tadej | 1.35 | 48.8% | 40.6% (#1) | 47.2% (#1) | 32.9% (#1) | 40.2% (#1) | GC #1 |
| del Toro Isaac | 15.00 | 4.4% | 5.4% (#6) | 5.7% (#6) | 6.1% (#4) | 5.8% (#5) | GC #6 |
| Paret-Peintre Valentin | 15.00 | 4.4% | 0.3% (#39) | 0.2% (#46) | 0.3% (#51) | 0.3% (#40) | free |
| Vingegaard Jonas | 17.00 | 3.9% | 8.3% (#4) | 11.3% (#3) | 4.4% (#6) | 7.6% (#4) | GC #3 |
| Martinez Lenny | 21.00 | 3.1% | 2.2% (#7) | 2.2% (#8) | 1.9% (#8) | 1.8% (#7) | GC #11 |
| Seixas Paul | 26.00 | 2.5% | 9.0% (#3) | 10.5% (#4) | 8.9% (#2) | 7.9% (#3) | GC #5 |
| Carapaz Richard | 34.00 | 1.9% | 1.5% (#11) | 1.6% (#11) | 1.2% (#17) | 1.2% (#15) | GC #14 |
| Baudin Alex | 34.00 | 1.9% | 0.3% (#40) | 0.3% (#40) | 0.4% (#39) | 0.3% (#39) | free |
| Evenepoel Remco | 41.00 | 1.6% | 13.0% (#2) | 12.7% (#2) | 6.5% (#3) | 10.5% (#2) | GC #2 |
| Arensman Thymen | 51.00 | 1.3% | 1.4% (#14) | 1.3% (#16) | 1.8% (#10) | 1.4% (#10) | GC #15 |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Elite selection win p | Select group win p | Large group win p | Break survives win p | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 40.6% | 47.2% | 32.9% | 40.2% | 39.9% |
| 2 | Vingegaard Jonas | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 8.3% | 11.3% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% |
| 3 | del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% |
| 4 | Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 13.0% | 12.7% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 7.8% |
| 5 | Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% |
| 6 | Lipowitz Florian | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% |
| 7 | Ayuso Juan | Lidl-Trek | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% |
| 8 | Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| 9 | Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| 10 | Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Elite selection | 40.62% | 48.76% |
| Select group | 47.23% | 48.76% |
| Large group | 32.94% | 48.76% |
| Break survives | 40.19% | 48.76% |
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 39.92% | 48.76% |
Reflection
Stage 6 went past even our sharpest read. The Tourmalet split the race just as the elite_selection scenario pictured — a handful of GC men over the top — but Pogacar didn't wait for the uphill kick to Gavarnie: he soloed off the front and won by 2:38 over Vingegaard, with del Toro, Evenepoel, Seixas, Lipowitz, Ayuso and Skjelmose chasing in at 2:57 and only 24 riders inside ten minutes. That is the elite_selection pole and then some — the field shattered, one leader clear, the long descent and the 3.7% drag doing nothing to reel him in. The large_group base case the preview leaned toward never appeared; the road took the highest-ceiling branch we had.
The model read the cast of the front group almost perfectly. Its elite_selection and select_group boards put the same six names up top — Pogacar, Evenepoel, Seixas, Vingegaard, Lipowitz, del Toro — and those are exactly the six who filled the top six on the road, merely reordered. It even out-priced the market on the men the book buried: Seixas, at #2-4 on our boards but 26.0 (2.5% devig) in the book, came 5th; Evenepoel, our #2 but 41.0 (1.6%) in the book, came 4th. Where it ceded ground was on Pogacar's own number — the book had him at 48.8% (1.35), and our best read, select_group, sat just under at 47.2% (elite_selection lower, 40.6%). We spread a little more mass across the elite group than the market, which concentrated on the one man; because he soloed, that concentration scored better on the day. Right ordering, a shade light on the favourite.
Hindsight, for once, added nothing — and that is the point. Fed the five DB stages that finished like this one (Pogacar's Giro'24 solos, Vingegaard at Hautacam, Adam Yates, Evenepoel — all lone high-mountain wins), the model returned Pogacar 39.9% and the very same elite six, essentially its pre-race board. On stages 4 and 5 finish-shape knowledge hurt us, because a flat sprint that fragments reads to the model as selection, i.e. climbers; here the fragmentation was real selection, so pricing the terrain was already the right answer and hindsight only confirmed it. The one thing the model structurally can't see is the margin — a 2:38 solo is Pogacar being the strongest rider in the race and choosing to ride away, not a course-fit signal. It ranked him #1 on every read, which is the correct call; it simply can't be asked to know he'd win by minutes rather than out-kick a group of eight. Carry forward: on genuine high-mountain GC-selection days our board and the market agree and our ordering is strong — the market's only edge is a tighter concentration on the single dominant favourite, a calibration nudge, not a terrain-knowledge gap.