The same production stack priced under 3 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
| Rider | Team | Full sprint | Reduced sprint | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merlier Tim | Soudal Quick-Step | 46.7% | 35.2% | 42.3% | 1.65 | 41.5% | +5.2pp |
| Kooij Olav | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 28.2% | 33.6% | 39.1% | 4.00 | 17.1% | +22.0pp |
| Philipsen Jasper | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 22.1% | 22.3% | 23.1% | 5.50 | 12.5% | +10.7pp |
| Girmay Biniam | NSN Cycling Team | 3.8% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 13.00 | 5.3% | +4.0pp |
| De Lie Arnaud | Lotto-Intermarché | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Gaviria Fernando | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +4.1pp |
| Kanter Max | XDS Astana Team | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 19.00 | 3.6% | +0.8pp |
| de Kleijn Arvid | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 4.0% | 2.0% | 3.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Pedersen Mads | Lidl-Trek | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 51.00 | 1.3% | +1.6pp |
| van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 1.4% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 126.00 | 0.5% | +2.4pp |
| Ackermann Pascal | Team Jayco-AlUla | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 301.00 | 0.2% | +2.7pp |
| Fretin Milan | Cofidis | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 51.00 | 1.3% | +0.7pp |
| Wærenskjold Søren | Uno-X Mobility | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 21.00 | 3.3% | -1.3pp |
| Bauhaus Phil | Bahrain Victorious | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 151.00 | 0.5% | +1.3pp |
| Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 401.00 | 0.2% | +1.2pp |
| Ballerini Davide | XDS Astana Team | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 401.00 | 0.2% | +1.2pp |
| Matthews Michael | Team Jayco-AlUla | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 401.00 | 0.2% | +1.0pp |
| Bittner Pavel | Team Picnic PostNL | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 151.00 | 0.5% | +0.7pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merlier Tim | 46.7% | 56.5% | 31.1% | 75.3% | 90.2% | 1.65 |
| 2 | Kooij Olav | 28.2% | 30.5% | 19.7% | 59.7% | 83.2% | 4.00 |
| 3 | Philipsen Jasper | 22.1% | 19.6% | 16.5% | 46.3% | 83.0% | 5.50 |
| 4 | De Lie Arnaud | 4.6% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 12.1% | 63.9% | n/a |
| 5 | Gaviria Fernando | 4.3% | 1.1% | 3.9% | 7.8% | 66.5% | 81.00 |
| 6 | de Kleijn Arvid | 4.0% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 9.9% | 73.9% | n/a |
| 7 | Kanter Max | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 16.6% | 81.9% | 19.00 |
| 8 | Girmay Biniam | 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 11.9% | 80.1% | 13.00 |
| 9 | Ackermann Pascal | 3.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 8.8% | 69.5% | 301.00 |
| 10 | Pedersen Mads | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 8.8% | 49.6% | 51.00 |
| 11 | Fretin Milan | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 7.5% | 73.8% | 51.00 |
| 12 | Wærenskjold Søren | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 6.9% | 69.6% | 21.00 |
| 13 | Bauhaus Phil | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 9.9% | 58.0% | 151.00 |
| 14 | van der Poel Mathieu | 1.4% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 12.1% | 40.7% | 126.00 |
| 15 | Ballerini Davide | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 7.8% | 47.7% | 401.00 |
| 16 | Bittner Pavel | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 7.2% | 71.8% | 151.00 |
| 17 | Pogacar Tadej | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 3.4% | 19.0% | 401.00 |
| 18 | Matthews Michael | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 6.9% | 61.0% | 401.00 |
| 19 | van Dijke Tim | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 3.8% | 25.1% | 1001.00 |
| 20 | Wright Fred | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 22.0% | 301.00 |
| 21 | Askey Lewis | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 19.7% | 801.00 |
| 22 | Biesterbos Frits | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 35.0% | 801.00 |
| 23 | Vacek Mathias | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 13.1% | 251.00 |
| 24 | Oldani Stefano | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 32.1% | 1001.00 |
| 25 | Bol Cees | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 19.3% | 601.00 |
| 26 | del Toro Isaac | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 5.2% | 601.00 |
| 27 | Stuyven Jasper | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 24.4% | 251.00 |
| 28 | Cort Magnus | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 30.9% | 301.00 |
| 29 | Trentin Matteo | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 47.5% | 401.00 |
| 30 | Pidcock Tom | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 6.0% | 1001.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merlier Tim | 35.2% | 45.7% | 21.9% | 66.7% | 83.8% | 1.65 |
| 2 | Kooij Olav | 33.6% | 39.6% | 21.9% | 62.1% | 80.7% | 4.00 |
| 3 | Philipsen Jasper | 22.3% | 18.1% | 16.6% | 42.7% | 76.7% | 5.50 |
| 4 | Girmay Biniam | 9.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 24.5% | 74.9% | 13.00 |
| 5 | De Lie Arnaud | 6.4% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 13.7% | 58.9% | n/a |
| 6 | Kanter Max | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 17.9% | 75.1% | 19.00 |
| 7 | Gaviria Fernando | 3.3% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 8.1% | 52.8% | 81.00 |
| 8 | Pedersen Mads | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 10.6% | 48.5% | 51.00 |
| 9 | van der Poel Mathieu | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 11.5% | 48.7% | 126.00 |
| 10 | Ackermann Pascal | 2.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 7.5% | 59.4% | 301.00 |
| 11 | de Kleijn Arvid | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 5.8% | 38.3% | n/a |
| 12 | Wærenskjold Søren | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 8.4% | 55.2% | 21.00 |
| 13 | Fretin Milan | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 8.5% | 61.6% | 51.00 |
| 14 | Pogacar Tadej | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 4.7% | 29.2% | 401.00 |
| 15 | Ballerini Davide | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 7.4% | 42.9% | 401.00 |
| 16 | Bauhaus Phil | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 14.1% | 59.3% | 151.00 |
| 17 | Matthews Michael | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 10.3% | 60.6% | 401.00 |
| 18 | Bittner Pavel | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 7.9% | 60.6% | 151.00 |
| 19 | Askey Lewis | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 3.4% | 36.3% | 801.00 |
| 20 | Wright Fred | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 32.4% | 301.00 |
| 21 | Oldani Stefano | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 45.9% | 1001.00 |
| 22 | Vacek Mathias | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 14.6% | 251.00 |
| 23 | van Dijke Tim | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 3.2% | 22.1% | 1001.00 |
| 24 | Pidcock Tom | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 10.3% | 1001.00 |
| 25 | Biesterbos Frits | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 36.7% | 801.00 |
| 26 | Stuyven Jasper | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 24.4% | 251.00 |
| 27 | Aranburu Alex | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 22.8% | 801.00 |
| 28 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 9.0% | 801.00 |
| 29 | Bol Cees | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 23.3% | 601.00 |
| 30 | Godon Dorian | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 22.0% | 126.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merlier Tim | 42.3% | 54.2% | 24.7% | 74.0% | 90.3% | 1.65 |
| 2 | Kooij Olav | 39.1% | 43.3% | 24.6% | 68.7% | 86.0% | 4.00 |
| 3 | Philipsen Jasper | 23.1% | 18.9% | 16.2% | 48.9% | 83.0% | 5.50 |
| 4 | Girmay Biniam | 7.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 18.2% | 80.7% | 13.00 |
| 5 | De Lie Arnaud | 5.3% | 1.9% | 4.3% | 13.5% | 68.2% | n/a |
| 6 | Gaviria Fernando | 5.0% | 1.6% | 4.1% | 10.2% | 67.4% | 81.00 |
| 7 | Kanter Max | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 17.6% | 79.4% | 19.00 |
| 8 | de Kleijn Arvid | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 9.7% | 67.2% | n/a |
| 9 | Ackermann Pascal | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 7.9% | 66.7% | 301.00 |
| 10 | Fretin Milan | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 8.7% | 73.7% | 51.00 |
| 11 | Pedersen Mads | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 8.8% | 47.1% | 51.00 |
| 12 | Wærenskjold Søren | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 8.5% | 68.2% | 21.00 |
| 13 | Bauhaus Phil | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 9.9% | 61.7% | 151.00 |
| 14 | van der Poel Mathieu | 1.7% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 16.0% | 42.3% | 126.00 |
| 15 | Ballerini Davide | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 8.3% | 48.3% | 401.00 |
| 16 | Bittner Pavel | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 8.1% | 69.7% | 151.00 |
| 17 | Matthews Michael | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 8.2% | 60.1% | 401.00 |
| 18 | Pogacar Tadej | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 2.5% | 16.6% | 401.00 |
| 19 | Wright Fred | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 28.9% | 301.00 |
| 20 | van Dijke Tim | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 2.8% | 25.6% | 1001.00 |
| 21 | Askey Lewis | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 25.7% | 801.00 |
| 22 | Oldani Stefano | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 38.5% | 1001.00 |
| 23 | Biesterbos Frits | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 35.2% | 801.00 |
| 24 | Bol Cees | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 22.9% | 601.00 |
| 25 | Stuyven Jasper | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 26.7% | 251.00 |
| 26 | Vacek Mathias | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 12.8% | 251.00 |
| 27 | Cort Magnus | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 28.2% | 301.00 |
| 28 | Trentin Matteo | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 39.0% | 401.00 |
| 29 | Godon Dorian | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 20.0% | 126.00 |
| 30 | Artz Huub | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 3.2% | 18.7% | 81.00 |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Full sprint win p | Reduced sprint win p | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merlier Tim | Soudal Quick-Step | 46.7% | 35.2% | 42.3% |
| 2 | Girmay Biniam | NSN Cycling Team | 3.8% | 9.3% | 7.4% |
| 3 | Kooij Olav | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 28.2% | 33.6% | 39.1% |
| 4 | Philipsen Jasper | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 22.1% | 22.3% | 23.1% |
| 5 | Bittner Pavel | Team Picnic PostNL | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| 6 | Pluimers Rick | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 7 | Ackermann Pascal | Team Jayco-AlUla | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| 8 | Russo Clément | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 9 | Kanter Max | XDS Astana Team | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% |
| 10 | Fretin Milan | Cofidis | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Full sprint | 46.72% | 41.52% |
| Reduced sprint | 35.22% | 41.52% |
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 42.27% | 41.52% |
Reflection
The road took the base case exactly as written. The two Cat-4 lumps changed nothing, the trains controlled the Dordogne crossing, and 90 riders hit Bergerac together for the full gallop — Merlier winning his second stage in two days off the Soudal Quick-Step lead-out, ahead of Girmay, Kooij and Philipsen. Those are the four names the full_sprint note listed as the top of the board before the race. Of the two reads, the road picked full_sprint; the reduced_sprint branch (the Buisson-de-Cadouin ramp doing damage) never materialized.
Both reads had the winner on top, so the fork barely mattered at the head of the board: full_sprint gave Merlier 46.7% against the book's devigged 41.5% (+5.2pp), reduced_sprint 35.2%. The more interesting movement was underneath. Girmay — 2nd on the day, 5.3% at the book — got 9.3% from the reduced read but only 3.8% from full_sprint, so the branch the road didn't take was the one that priced the runner-up right. And the book itself closed most of last stage's gap: on stage 7 we ran Merlier at 46.3% against a 30.5% devig; today the market opened him at 1.65 (41.5% devigged) and our premium shrank to five points. The market conceded the Merlier read rather than the model backing off it.
Hindsight confirmed rather than corrected, again: fed five pure-sprint finishes (avg sprint score 0.90), the model returned Merlier 42.3%, Kooij 39.1%, Philipsen 23.1% — the live board within a few points, so course knowledge was never the constraint on a day with no structural surprise. Watch-item tally after two clean sprints: the over-the-book premium on the lead sprinter has now paid twice (stage 7 hugely, stage 8 modestly because the book moved to us). The sharper sub-question is Kooij: the model has priced him at roughly double the book two sprints running (28.2% vs 17.1% today) and he has yet to beat Merlier head-on — if that ratio persists without a win, the Kooij number starts to look like model over-confidence in second wheels rather than edge. Tomorrow is the real test of the week: a stage-4-archetype day where the carry-forward rule — pick references by winner archetype, not terrain, and don't let pure sprinters or GC climbers crowd out the classics hard-men — gets applied prospectively for the first time.