The same production stack priced under 4 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Full sprint 136%, Reduced sprint 156%, Hindsight (post-hoc) 147% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Full sprint | Reduced sprint | Break survives | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merlier Tim | Soudal Quick-Step | 44.9% | 38.6% | – | 44.5% | 1.65 | 42.2% | +2.7pp |
| Kooij Olav | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 30.5% | 38.4% | – | 37.9% | 5.00 | 13.9% | +24.4pp |
| Philipsen Jasper | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 24.4% | 26.2% | – | 24.2% | 10.00 | 7.0% | +19.3pp |
| Girmay Biniam | NSN Cycling Team | 4.1% | 10.9% | – | 5.7% | 9.00 | 7.7% | +3.2pp |
| Gaviria Fernando | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 4.7% | 4.1% | – | 5.2% | 101.00 | 0.7% | +4.6pp |
| Kanter Max | XDS Astana Team | 4.2% | 4.8% | – | 4.9% | 17.00 | 4.1% | +0.8pp |
| van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 1.4% | 4.4% | 8.5% | 1.7% | 41.00 | 1.7% | +2.7pp |
| Pedersen Mads | Lidl-Trek | 2.5% | 3.7% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 41.00 | 1.7% | +2.0pp |
| Ackermann Pascal | Team Jayco-AlUla | 3.2% | 2.8% | – | 3.1% | 301.00 | 0.2% | +2.9pp |
| Wærenskjold Søren | Uno-X Mobility | 2.0% | 2.4% | 7.7% | 2.3% | 34.00 | 2.0% | +0.3pp |
| Bauhaus Phil | Bahrain Victorious | 1.7% | 1.6% | – | 2.2% | 301.00 | 0.2% | +2.0pp |
| Fretin Milan | Cofidis | 1.9% | 2.0% | – | 2.2% | 101.00 | 0.7% | +1.5pp |
| Ballerini Davide | XDS Astana Team | 1.3% | 1.7% | – | 1.4% | 401.00 | 0.2% | +1.5pp |
| Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.1% | 1.6% | – | 0.7% | 401.00 | 0.2% | +1.4pp |
| Matthews Michael | Team Jayco-AlUla | 1.1% | 1.5% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 401.00 | 0.2% | +1.4pp |
| Bittner Pavel | Team Picnic PostNL | 1.2% | 1.2% | – | 1.4% | 101.00 | 0.7% | +0.7pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merlier Tim | 44.9% | 52.7% | 31.0% | 74.5% | 89.4% | 1.65 |
| 2 | Kooij Olav | 30.5% | 31.3% | 22.1% | 63.0% | 84.4% | 5.00 |
| 3 | Philipsen Jasper | 24.4% | 21.5% | 18.6% | 48.5% | 83.8% | 10.00 |
| 4 | Gaviria Fernando | 4.7% | 1.4% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 70.3% | 101.00 |
| 5 | Kanter Max | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 17.5% | 82.6% | 17.00 |
| 6 | Girmay Biniam | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 11.2% | 82.7% | 9.00 |
| 7 | Ackermann Pascal | 3.2% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 9.3% | 76.7% | 301.00 |
| 8 | Pedersen Mads | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 10.8% | 54.8% | 41.00 |
| 9 | Wærenskjold Søren | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 7.6% | 72.2% | 34.00 |
| 10 | Fretin Milan | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 7.9% | 75.0% | 101.00 |
| 11 | Bauhaus Phil | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 9.4% | 54.8% | 301.00 |
| 12 | van der Poel Mathieu | 1.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 7.4% | 40.2% | 41.00 |
| 13 | Ballerini Davide | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 7.7% | 47.9% | 401.00 |
| 14 | Bittner Pavel | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 6.7% | 74.8% | 101.00 |
| 15 | Pogacar Tadej | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 4.1% | 22.4% | 401.00 |
| 16 | Matthews Michael | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 4.6% | 58.6% | 401.00 |
| 17 | Wright Fred | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 3.1% | 23.5% | 151.00 |
| 18 | van Dijke Tim | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 3.8% | 26.4% | 1001.00 |
| 19 | Askey Lewis | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 20.2% | 751.00 |
| 20 | Vacek Mathias | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 13.3% | 151.00 |
| 21 | Biesterbos Frits | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 38.7% | 601.00 |
| 22 | Oldani Stefano | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 35.1% | 1001.00 |
| 23 | Bol Cees | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 20.2% | 751.00 |
| 24 | Cort Magnus | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 27.0% | 201.00 |
| 25 | Stuyven Jasper | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 24.0% | 201.00 |
| 26 | del Toro Isaac | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 5.0% | 751.00 |
| 27 | Artz Huub | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 25.7% | 101.00 |
| 28 | Asgreen Kasper | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 5.8% | 51.00 |
| 29 | Godon Dorian | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 15.7% | 151.00 |
| 30 | Pidcock Tom | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 7.0% | 501.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merlier Tim | 38.6% | 52.1% | 21.4% | 71.1% | 86.0% | 1.65 |
| 2 | Kooij Olav | 38.4% | 40.2% | 24.1% | 65.1% | 82.7% | 5.00 |
| 3 | Philipsen Jasper | 26.2% | 20.1% | 18.3% | 46.1% | 80.7% | 10.00 |
| 4 | Girmay Biniam | 10.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 26.8% | 79.9% | 9.00 |
| 5 | Kanter Max | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 16.3% | 77.2% | 17.00 |
| 6 | van der Poel Mathieu | 4.4% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 17.8% | 55.9% | 41.00 |
| 7 | Gaviria Fernando | 4.1% | 1.2% | 3.3% | 8.5% | 58.0% | 101.00 |
| 8 | Pedersen Mads | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 12.1% | 54.2% | 41.00 |
| 9 | Ackermann Pascal | 2.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 7.1% | 70.4% | 301.00 |
| 10 | Wærenskjold Søren | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 9.7% | 57.4% | 34.00 |
| 11 | Fretin Milan | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 9.3% | 65.3% | 101.00 |
| 12 | Ballerini Davide | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 8.1% | 45.4% | 401.00 |
| 13 | Bauhaus Phil | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 9.3% | 47.6% | 301.00 |
| 14 | Pogacar Tadej | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 4.7% | 29.8% | 401.00 |
| 15 | Matthews Michael | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 6.3% | 54.7% | 401.00 |
| 16 | Bittner Pavel | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 8.2% | 67.1% | 101.00 |
| 17 | Askey Lewis | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.9% | 35.0% | 751.00 |
| 18 | Wright Fred | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 4.2% | 31.6% | 151.00 |
| 19 | Vacek Mathias | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 14.4% | 151.00 |
| 20 | Oldani Stefano | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 47.0% | 1001.00 |
| 21 | van Dijke Tim | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 23.0% | 1001.00 |
| 22 | Pidcock Tom | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 12.1% | 501.00 |
| 23 | Biesterbos Frits | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 40.2% | 601.00 |
| 24 | Stuyven Jasper | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 25.7% | 201.00 |
| 25 | Aranburu Alex | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 24.9% | 751.00 |
| 26 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 10.5% | 751.00 |
| 27 | Godon Dorian | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 24.6% | 151.00 |
| 28 | Bol Cees | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 22.4% | 751.00 |
| 29 | Pluimers Rick | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 37.3% | 301.00 |
| 30 | Artz Huub | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 21.7% | 101.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pedersen Mads | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 18.4% | 41.00 |
| 2 | van der Poel Mathieu | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 16.5% | 41.00 |
| 3 | Wærenskjold Søren | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 22.2% | 34.00 |
| 4 | Matthews Michael | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 24.1% | 401.00 |
| 5 | Askey Lewis | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 5.6% | 20.9% | 751.00 |
| 6 | Oldani Stefano | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 19.3% | 1001.00 |
| 7 | Vacek Mathias | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 5.5% | 18.5% | 151.00 |
| 8 | Wright Fred | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 3.4% | 21.5% | 151.00 |
| 9 | Godon Dorian | 0.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 4.5% | 21.3% | 151.00 |
| 10 | Stuyven Jasper | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 21.3% | 201.00 |
| 11 | van Dijke Tim | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 19.6% | 1001.00 |
| 12 | Bol Cees | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 16.6% | 751.00 |
| 13 | Cort Magnus | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 16.5% | 201.00 |
| 14 | Aranburu Alex | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 10.2% | 751.00 |
| 15 | Tarling Joshua | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 4.8% | 201.00 |
| 16 | Vermeersch Florian | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 13.8% | 1001.00 |
| 17 | Teunissen Mike | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 19.6% | 301.00 |
| 18 | Berckmoes Jenno | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 3.4% | 25.0% | 401.00 |
| 19 | Asgreen Kasper | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 4.0% | 15.3% | 51.00 |
| 20 | Russo Clément | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 26.5% | 601.00 |
| 21 | Pidcock Tom | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 9.5% | 501.00 |
| 22 | Pluimers Rick | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 22.6% | 301.00 |
| 23 | Biesterbos Frits | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 19.6% | 601.00 |
| 24 | Märkl Niklas | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 15.3% | 1501.00 |
| 25 | Gate Aaron | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 8.8% | 751.00 |
| 26 | Debruyne Ramses | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 14.9% | 751.00 |
| 27 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 4.7% | 1001.00 |
| 28 | Turgis Anthony | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 10.9% | 401.00 |
| 29 | Ganna Filippo | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 4.0% | 15.0% | 51.00 |
| 30 | Le Berre Mathis | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.5% | 17.6% | 1501.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merlier Tim | 44.5% | 54.5% | 27.8% | 76.9% | 90.9% | 1.65 |
| 2 | Kooij Olav | 37.9% | 41.5% | 24.8% | 70.9% | 88.2% | 5.00 |
| 3 | Philipsen Jasper | 24.2% | 19.9% | 17.5% | 49.0% | 84.0% | 10.00 |
| 4 | Girmay Biniam | 5.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 14.3% | 83.4% | 9.00 |
| 5 | Gaviria Fernando | 5.2% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 9.7% | 72.7% | 101.00 |
| 6 | Kanter Max | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 18.1% | 82.5% | 17.00 |
| 7 | Ackermann Pascal | 3.1% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 7.9% | 76.8% | 301.00 |
| 8 | Pedersen Mads | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 10.5% | 56.2% | 41.00 |
| 9 | Wærenskjold Søren | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 8.8% | 75.3% | 34.00 |
| 10 | Bauhaus Phil | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 10.6% | 63.3% | 301.00 |
| 11 | Fretin Milan | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 8.6% | 77.1% | 101.00 |
| 12 | van der Poel Mathieu | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 8.7% | 47.0% | 41.00 |
| 13 | Ballerini Davide | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 7.4% | 48.1% | 401.00 |
| 14 | Bittner Pavel | 1.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 8.3% | 76.1% | 101.00 |
| 15 | Matthews Michael | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 4.3% | 60.0% | 401.00 |
| 16 | Pogacar Tadej | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 17.7% | 401.00 |
| 17 | Wright Fred | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 28.6% | 151.00 |
| 18 | van Dijke Tim | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 28.5% | 1001.00 |
| 19 | Askey Lewis | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 21.3% | 751.00 |
| 20 | Oldani Stefano | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 33.9% | 1001.00 |
| 21 | Biesterbos Frits | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 42.0% | 601.00 |
| 22 | Vacek Mathias | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 12.9% | 151.00 |
| 23 | Bol Cees | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 21.3% | 751.00 |
| 24 | Stuyven Jasper | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 27.6% | 201.00 |
| 25 | Cort Magnus | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 28.5% | 201.00 |
| 26 | Artz Huub | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 25.0% | 101.00 |
| 27 | del Toro Isaac | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 4.4% | 751.00 |
| 28 | Pidcock Tom | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 6.4% | 501.00 |
| 29 | Godon Dorian | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 20.5% | 151.00 |
| 30 | Teunissen Mike | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 31.0% | 301.00 |
Angle
On a flat day the escape has to beat the fast men home, so the pool that can win from it is the field minus every pure sprinter and minus the top 9 on GC after stage 10. Pure sprinter is the model's own verdict, not a hand list: real speed on a flat-sprint anchor of this exact field, but collapsing to a fraction of it once the road turns selective — that collapse is what separates a Merlier from a Pedersen. Classified out: Ackermann Pascal, Ballerini Davide, Bauhaus Phil, Bittner Pavel, Fretin Milan, Gaviria Fernando, Girmay Biniam, Kanter Max, Kooij Olav, Merlier Tim, Philipsen Jasper. The conditional column renormalizes the survivors' win probability under the 'Break survives' read over this pool (P(win | the break wins); the pool holds 22% of the unconditional book). The model cannot see who actually gets up the road — read this as a fitness-for-the-day ranking, not break-formation odds.
| Rider | Team | Break survives win p | P(win | break wins) | Book odds | Book devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedersen Mads | Lidl-Trek | 2.1% | 9.9% | 41 | 1.7% |
| van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 1.8% | 8.5% | 41 | 1.7% |
| Wærenskjold Søren | Uno-X Mobility | 1.7% | 7.7% | 34 | 2.0% |
| Matthews Michael | Team Jayco-AlUla | 1.0% | 4.6% | 401 | 0.2% |
| Askey Lewis | NSN Cycling Team | 0.9% | 4.1% | 751 | 0.1% |
| Oldani Stefano | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 0.7% | 3.1% | 1001 | 0.1% |
| Vacek Mathias | Lidl-Trek | 0.6% | 2.7% | 151 | 0.5% |
| Wright Fred | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 0.5% | 2.4% | 151 | 0.5% |
| Godon Dorian | Netcompany INEOS | 0.5% | 2.3% | 151 | 0.5% |
| Stuyven Jasper | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.5% | 2.3% | 201 | 0.3% |
| van Dijke Tim | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 0.5% | 2.2% | 1001 | 0.1% |
| Bol Cees | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 0.4% | 2.0% | 751 | 0.1% |
| Cort Magnus | Uno-X Mobility | 0.3% | 1.4% | 201 | 0.3% |
| Aranburu Alex | Cofidis | 0.3% | 1.4% | 751 | 0.1% |
Angle
Shortest book prices for the stage, with our blend win probability (and rank) under each scenario. 'free' = outside the excluded GC pool (top 9 on GC after stage 10), i.e. the type the peloton might let up the road.
| Rider | Book odds | Devig | Full sprint | Reduced sprint | Break survives | GC status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merlier Tim | 1.65 | 42.2% | 44.9% (#1) | 38.6% (#1) | 1.6% (#7) | free |
| Kooij Olav | 5.00 | 13.9% | 30.5% (#2) | 38.4% (#2) | 3.5% (#3) | free |
| Girmay Biniam | 9.00 | 7.7% | 4.1% (#6) | 10.9% (#4) | 1.2% (#9) | free |
| Philipsen Jasper | 10.00 | 7.0% | 24.4% (#3) | 26.2% (#3) | 5.2% (#1) | free |
| Kanter Max | 17.00 | 4.1% | 4.2% (#5) | 4.8% (#5) | 3.5% (#2) | free |
| Wærenskjold Søren | 34.00 | 2.0% | 2.0% (#9) | 2.4% (#10) | 1.7% (#6) | free |
| Pedersen Mads | 41.00 | 1.7% | 2.5% (#8) | 3.7% (#8) | 2.1% (#4) | free |
| van der Poel Mathieu | 41.00 | 1.7% | 1.4% (#12) | 4.4% (#6) | 1.8% (#5) | free |
| Asgreen Kasper | 51.00 | 1.4% | 0.2% (#28) | 0.1% (#40) | 0.2% (#33) | free |
| Ganna Filippo | 51.00 | 1.4% | 0.1% (#45) | 0.1% (#54) | 0.2% (#43) | free |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Full sprint win p | Reduced sprint win p | Break survives win p | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wærenskjold Søren | Uno-X Mobility | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% |
| 2 | Kooij Olav | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 30.5% | 38.4% | 3.5% | 37.9% |
| 3 | Philipsen Jasper | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 24.4% | 26.2% | 5.2% | 24.2% |
| 4 | Fretin Milan | Cofidis | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 2.2% |
| 5 | Artz Huub | Lotto-Intermarché | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 6 | Girmay Biniam | NSN Cycling Team | 4.1% | 10.9% | 1.2% | 5.7% |
| 7 | Turgis Anthony | Team TotalEnergies | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 8 | Russo Clément | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 9 | Gaviria Fernando | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 4.7% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 5.2% |
| 10 | Ackermann Pascal | Team Jayco-AlUla | 3.2% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 3.1% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Full sprint | 1.98% | 2.05% |
| Reduced sprint | 2.38% | 2.05% |
| Break survives | 1.67% | 2.05% |
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 2.28% | 2.05% |
Reflection
The road picked the full-sprint branch — a wide flat gallop into Nevers, 119 of 175 finishers credited with the same second — but the win went where nobody's card had it. Søren Wærenskjold, a rouleur-fast-man priced at 34 (2.0% devigged), came over the top of the pure sprinters: Kooij second, Philipsen third, Fretin and Girmay behind, and Tim Merlier, the whole market's 1.65 favourite, boxed back to fifteenth. Not a break, not a crosswind split — a full bunch kick whose result was a lead-out lottery rather than a question about the day.
Scored on the footing that compares with the book — each read renormalized over the field, since the raw blend totals 136% here and flatters the board above — the honest headline is a shrug on the winner and a hit on the shape. Full-sprint gave Wærenskjold 1.4% against the book's 2.0%; on win-log-loss, the one number that scores, the market edged us on this 34-1 result. But the pre-race claim was never about the winner. It was that our disagreement with the book lived inside the gallop, and it landed on all three names we staked it on: Kooij 22.3% against the book's 13.9% — second on the road; Philipsen 17.9% against 7.0% — third; Merlier shaded down to 32.9% against 42.2% — fifteenth. The market got the shape wrong and we got it right. The one blemish on that axis: we actively disliked Girmay at 3.0% against the book's 7.7%, and he was sixth.
The hindsight run says course knowledge was not the constraint, and this time it is not even a close call. Reconstruct the day from its finish curve — the five WT stages whose split most resembles it, every one a flat pure-sprint at sprint score 1.0 — and the read barely moves: Merlier 44.5% (44.9% cold), Kooij and Philipsen next, the winner 2.3% (2.0% cold). A flat bunch sprint is a day-type the model already prices end to end; there is no hidden terrain to recover and knowing the shape in advance buys nothing. Wærenskjold winning from ninth on the board is the irreducible floor of sprint racing — position, the lead-out, the legs on the day — the part neither model nor market ever escapes.
Carry forward. (1) This is the sprinter's negative control, the mirror of stage 10. There a shattered mountain day was settled by rider-course fit and the model nailed it; here a flat day was settled by a lead-out, and the model priced the pool correctly and lost the winner to noise — exactly as the book did. Neither day is the GT hard-day hole. (2) The intra-sprint edge over the market held for the second sprint running: the book anchors on the marquee name (Merlier 42%), we spread the mass to the fast-men just behind him, and the fast-men keep winning — Kooij second here off our 22% versus the book's 14%, worth trusting over the market's top-heavy sprint pricing. (3) Merlier is beatable — two wins (stages 7, 8) but out of the top ten today — and Girmay and Kooij are both still hunting a stage, Kooij runner-up for the second time. No structural lesson: a clean day, cleanly priced.