The same production stack priced under 4 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Reduced GC group 116%, Full mountain 119%, Hindsight (post-hoc) 75% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Break survives | Reduced GC group | Full mountain | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | – | 32.1% | 40.0% | 14.8% | 12.00 | 5.1% | +34.9pp |
| Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | – | 11.1% | 13.2% | 4.6% | 51.00 | 1.2% | +12.0pp |
| Vingegaard Jonas | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | – | 8.0% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 101.00 | 0.6% | +12.0pp |
| Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | – | 9.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 251.00 | 0.2% | +8.9pp |
| Lipowitz Florian | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | – | 7.6% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 601.00 | 0.1% | +7.5pp |
| del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | – | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 23.00 | 2.7% | +4.2pp |
| Ayuso Juan | Lidl-Trek | – | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 401.00 | 0.2% | +2.3pp |
| Arensman Thymen | Netcompany INEOS | 5.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +1.7pp |
| Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | – | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 201.00 | 0.3% | +1.7pp |
| Jorgenson Matteo | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 4.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 401.00 | 0.2% | +1.7pp |
| Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 8.50 | 7.2% | -5.4pp |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 4.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 21.00 | 2.9% | -1.2pp |
| Hindley Jai | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 601.00 | 0.1% | +1.5pp |
| Gee Derek | Lidl-Trek | 3.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 101.00 | 0.6% | +0.9pp |
| Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | – | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 251.00 | 0.2% | +1.3pp |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 12.00 | 5.1% | -3.7pp |
| Yates Adam | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +0.6pp |
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 3.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 301.00 | 0.2% | +1.0pp |
| Van Wilder Ilan | Soudal Quick-Step | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +0.7pp |
| Grégoire Romain | Groupama-FDJ United | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 34.00 | 1.8% | -0.8pp |
| Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +0.6pp |
| van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 15.00 | 4.1% | -3.3pp |
| McNulty Brandon | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 19.00 | 3.2% | -2.6pp |
| Healy Ben | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 23.00 | 2.7% | -2.1pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arensman Thymen | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 6.1% | 21.5% | 151.00 |
| 2 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.2% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 6.4% | 19.2% | 401.00 |
| 3 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 11.4% | 40.4% | 21.00 |
| 4 | Gee Derek | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 9.4% | 30.0% | 101.00 |
| 5 | Riccitello Matthew | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 20.6% | 301.00 |
| 6 | Yates Adam | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 3.7% | 24.8% | 81.00 |
| 7 | Hindley Jai | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 5.4% | 27.6% | 601.00 |
| 8 | Pidcock Tom | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 9.9% | 42.3% | 12.00 |
| 9 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 7.7% | 14.4% | 15.00 |
| 10 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 26.0% | 151.00 |
| 11 | Carapaz Richard | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 3.6% | 23.4% | 8.50 |
| 12 | Grégoire Romain | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 7.2% | 31.3% | 34.00 |
| 13 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 4.2% | 35.3% | 151.00 |
| 14 | Kuss Sepp | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 5.1% | 22.5% | 301.00 |
| 15 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 4.3% | 19.2% | 41.00 |
| 16 | Bernal Egan | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 2.8% | 24.6% | 81.00 |
| 17 | Aranburu Alex | 0.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 11.4% | 51.00 |
| 18 | McNulty Brandon | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 17.0% | 19.00 |
| 19 | Higuita Sergio | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 19.6% | 101.00 |
| 20 | Jegat Jordan | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 6.5% | 28.3% | 101.00 |
| 21 | Healy Ben | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 10.6% | 23.00 |
| 22 | Izagirre Ion | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 17.3% | 81.00 |
| 23 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 3.3% | 18.7% | 51.00 |
| 24 | Baudin Alex | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 3.2% | 18.6% | 34.00 |
| 25 | Pedersen Mads | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 3.4% | 7.5% | 21.00 |
| 26 | O'Connor Ben | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 2.5% | 14.5% | 67.00 |
| 27 | Foss Tobias | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 13.5% | 101.00 |
| 28 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 19.4% | 41.00 |
| 29 | Plapp Lucas | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 12.1% | n/a |
| 30 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 11.0% | 26.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 32.1% | 41.9% | 25.1% | 70.5% | 86.5% | 12.00 |
| 2 | Evenepoel Remco | 11.1% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 22.4% | 58.7% | 51.00 |
| 3 | Seixas Paul | 9.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 14.7% | 56.4% | 251.00 |
| 4 | Vingegaard Jonas | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 25.8% | 71.9% | 101.00 |
| 5 | Lipowitz Florian | 7.6% | 2.7% | 7.8% | 13.9% | 59.7% | 601.00 |
| 6 | del Toro Isaac | 6.9% | 2.2% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 50.2% | 23.00 |
| 7 | Ayuso Juan | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 6.5% | 37.8% | 401.00 |
| 8 | Arensman Thymen | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 6.8% | 24.3% | 151.00 |
| 9 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.8% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 7.1% | 21.2% | 401.00 |
| 10 | Martinez Lenny | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 35.7% | 201.00 |
| 11 | Carapaz Richard | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 6.3% | 33.8% | 8.50 |
| 12 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 30.6% | 21.00 |
| 13 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 7.9% | 44.6% | 251.00 |
| 14 | Pidcock Tom | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 4.7% | 35.9% | 12.00 |
| 15 | Hindley Jai | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 4.7% | 25.4% | 601.00 |
| 16 | Yates Adam | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 4.2% | 32.6% | 81.00 |
| 17 | Gee Derek | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 10.4% | 34.6% | 101.00 |
| 18 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 3.8% | 23.6% | 301.00 |
| 19 | Van Wilder Ilan | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 33.2% | 151.00 |
| 20 | Grégoire Romain | 1.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 9.4% | 31.9% | 34.00 |
| 21 | Piganzoli Davide | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 6.2% | 44.2% | 151.00 |
| 22 | Kuss Sepp | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 4.2% | 20.3% | 301.00 |
| 23 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 5.8% | 22.1% | 41.00 |
| 24 | Aranburu Alex | 0.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 10.3% | 51.00 |
| 25 | Bernal Egan | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 3.6% | 34.4% | 81.00 |
| 26 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 6.7% | 11.7% | 15.00 |
| 27 | Higuita Sergio | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 2.8% | 20.1% | 101.00 |
| 28 | McNulty Brandon | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 19.0% | 19.00 |
| 29 | Izagirre Ion | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 16.5% | 81.00 |
| 30 | Jegat Jordan | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 7.4% | 33.3% | 101.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 40.0% | 43.9% | 32.8% | 69.1% | 87.1% | 12.00 |
| 2 | Evenepoel Remco | 13.2% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 30.7% | 71.2% | 51.00 |
| 3 | Vingegaard Jonas | 12.6% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 40.9% | 84.5% | 101.00 |
| 4 | Seixas Paul | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 15.2% | 63.5% | 251.00 |
| 5 | Lipowitz Florian | 7.4% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 16.8% | 73.4% | 601.00 |
| 6 | del Toro Isaac | 5.5% | 2.0% | 5.5% | 11.8% | 58.3% | 23.00 |
| 7 | Ayuso Juan | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 7.9% | 53.3% | 401.00 |
| 8 | Martinez Lenny | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 6.4% | 51.5% | 201.00 |
| 9 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.7% | 4.3% | 0.8% | 8.6% | 22.2% | 401.00 |
| 10 | Carapaz Richard | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 5.1% | 37.8% | 8.50 |
| 11 | Hindley Jai | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 4.7% | 34.0% | 601.00 |
| 12 | Gee Derek | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 18.2% | 42.1% | 101.00 |
| 13 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 35.7% | 21.00 |
| 14 | Arensman Thymen | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 6.1% | 27.8% | 151.00 |
| 15 | Yates Adam | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 3.7% | 26.3% | 81.00 |
| 16 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 4.1% | 28.5% | 301.00 |
| 17 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 5.0% | 47.6% | 251.00 |
| 18 | Pidcock Tom | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 9.5% | 60.3% | 12.00 |
| 19 | Kuss Sepp | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 7.0% | 30.4% | 301.00 |
| 20 | Bernal Egan | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 3.5% | 41.4% | 81.00 |
| 21 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 3.5% | 38.6% | 151.00 |
| 22 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 4.7% | 48.2% | 151.00 |
| 23 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 4.8% | 19.7% | 41.00 |
| 24 | Grégoire Romain | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 7.8% | 27.4% | 34.00 |
| 25 | Healy Ben | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 3.2% | 9.0% | 23.00 |
| 26 | Higuita Sergio | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 2.5% | 16.5% | 101.00 |
| 27 | O'Connor Ben | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 18.6% | 67.00 |
| 28 | Jegat Jordan | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 7.7% | 37.4% | 101.00 |
| 29 | McNulty Brandon | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 18.0% | 19.00 |
| 30 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 3.0% | 17.9% | 34.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 14.8% | 9.5% | 21.0% | 22.3% | 46.5% | 12.00 |
| 2 | Seixas Paul | 8.6% | 6.4% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 42.9% | 251.00 |
| 3 | del Toro Isaac | 4.6% | 0.9% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 22.8% | 23.00 |
| 4 | Evenepoel Remco | 4.6% | 1.4% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 24.1% | 51.00 |
| 5 | Vingegaard Jonas | 3.4% | 1.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 24.3% | 101.00 |
| 6 | Lipowitz Florian | 3.2% | 1.0% | 4.8% | 16.4% | 49.2% | 601.00 |
| 7 | Martinez Lenny | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 10.3% | 46.8% | 201.00 |
| 8 | Ayuso Juan | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 8.8% | 34.4% | 401.00 |
| 9 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.5% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 8.9% | 39.2% | 21.00 |
| 10 | Arensman Thymen | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 5.5% | 21.0% | 151.00 |
| 11 | Hindley Jai | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 5.3% | 27.9% | 601.00 |
| 12 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.1% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 6.1% | 21.3% | 401.00 |
| 13 | Gee Derek | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 7.8% | 28.2% | 101.00 |
| 14 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 5.2% | 29.5% | 251.00 |
| 15 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 4.2% | 21.5% | 301.00 |
| 16 | Pidcock Tom | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 8.6% | 39.7% | 12.00 |
| 17 | Carapaz Richard | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 5.1% | 30.6% | 8.50 |
| 18 | Van Wilder Ilan | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 27.4% | 151.00 |
| 19 | Yates Adam | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 26.5% | 81.00 |
| 20 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 4.2% | 34.2% | 151.00 |
| 21 | Grégoire Romain | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 3.8% | 18.3% | 34.00 |
| 22 | Kuss Sepp | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 4.6% | 21.7% | 301.00 |
| 23 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 3.9% | 22.4% | 41.00 |
| 24 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 5.6% | 13.7% | 15.00 |
| 25 | Higuita Sergio | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 20.2% | 101.00 |
| 26 | McNulty Brandon | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 16.6% | 19.00 |
| 27 | Aranburu Alex | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 12.0% | 51.00 |
| 28 | Bernal Egan | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 25.4% | 81.00 |
| 29 | Izagirre Ion | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 3.2% | 18.6% | 81.00 |
| 30 | Jegat Jordan | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 4.0% | 27.0% | 101.00 |
Angle
The top 9 on GC after stage 11 removed — everyone below that is far enough back to be given freedom. Remaining riders under the 'Break survives' read; the conditional column renormalizes their win probability over this pool (P(win | a non-GC rider wins), pool holds 28% of the unconditional book). The model can't see who actually makes the break — read this as a fitness-for-the-day ranking, not break-formation odds.
| Rider | Team | Break survives win p | P(win | break wins) | Book odds | Book devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arensman Thymen | Netcompany INEOS | 1.6% | 5.9% | 151 | 0.4% |
| Jorgenson Matteo | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.2% | 4.3% | 401 | 0.2% |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.2% | 4.2% | 21 | 2.9% |
| Gee Derek | Lidl-Trek | 1.0% | 3.6% | 101 | 0.6% |
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 0.9% | 3.3% | 301 | 0.2% |
| Yates Adam | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 0.9% | 3.3% | 81 | 0.8% |
| Hindley Jai | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 0.9% | 3.1% | 601 | 0.1% |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 0.9% | 3.1% | 12 | 5.1% |
| van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 0.8% | 2.8% | 15 | 4.1% |
| Van Wilder Ilan | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.8% | 2.8% | 151 | 0.4% |
| Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 0.7% | 2.6% | 8 | 7.2% |
| Grégoire Romain | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.7% | 2.6% | 34 | 1.8% |
| Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.7% | 2.5% | 151 | 0.4% |
| Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.7% | 2.5% | 301 | 0.2% |
Angle
Shortest book prices for the stage, with our blend win probability (and rank) under each scenario. 'free' = outside the excluded GC pool (top 9 on GC after stage 11), i.e. the type the peloton might let up the road.
| Rider | Book odds | Devig | Break survives | Reduced GC group | Full mountain | GC status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carapaz Richard | 8.50 | 7.2% | 0.7% (#20) | 1.8% (#11) | 1.6% (#10) | free |
| Pogacar Tadej | 12.00 | 5.1% | 18.0% (#1) | 32.1% (#1) | 40.0% (#1) | GC #1 |
| Pidcock Tom | 12.00 | 5.1% | 0.9% (#17) | 1.4% (#14) | 1.0% (#18) | free |
| van der Poel Mathieu | 15.00 | 4.1% | 0.8% (#18) | 0.7% (#26) | 0.3% (#33) | free |
| McNulty Brandon | 19.00 | 3.2% | 0.5% (#27) | 0.6% (#28) | 0.4% (#29) | free |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | 21.00 | 2.9% | 1.2% (#11) | 1.7% (#12) | 1.4% (#13) | free |
| Pedersen Mads | 21.00 | 2.9% | 0.4% (#34) | 0.4% (#40) | 0.1% (#55) | free |
| del Toro Isaac | 23.00 | 2.7% | 5.1% (#4) | 6.9% (#6) | 5.5% (#6) | GC #7 |
| Healy Ben | 23.00 | 2.7% | 0.4% (#30) | 0.5% (#34) | 0.5% (#25) | free |
| Vacek Mathias | 23.00 | 2.7% | 0.3% (#45) | 0.3% (#47) | 0.1% (#53) | free |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Break survives win p | Reduced GC group win p | Full mountain win p | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schmid Mauro | Team Jayco-AlUla | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 2 | Tejada Harold | XDS Astana Team | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| 3 | Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| 4 | Van Gils Maxim | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| 5 | McNulty Brandon | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| 6 | Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS Cycling Team | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| 7 | Jegat Jordan | Team TotalEnergies | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| 8 | Braz Afonso Clément | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 9 | Wellens Tim | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 10 | Plapp Luke | Team Jayco-AlUla | – | – | – | – |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Break survives | 0.35% | 1.21% |
| Reduced GC group | 0.45% | 1.21% |
| Full mountain | 0.30% | 1.21% |
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 0.38% | 1.21% |
Reflection
The road picked the break, and picked it emphatically. Dole to Belfort split exactly along the break_survives fork we led with: an escape crested the Col des Croix and the Ballon d'Alsace with a gap, used the 30 km of descending into Belfort to defend it, and stayed clear by more than seven minutes. Mauro Schmid out-kicked Harold Tejada from a nine-man front group, Tom Pidcock leading the survivors home at two seconds, while the whole GC field — Pogacar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel, del Toro — rolled in 7:32 down, content to let a break of non-threats have the day. It was the clearest branch call of the Tour: not the reduced-GC regroup, not the full-gas mountain selection, but the escape the profile and the book both leaned toward.
Scored on the footing that stands next to the book — each read renormalized over the field, since the raw blend sums past one and flatters the board — the day lands where break days land for a fitness model: short of the winner, useful one rung down. break_survives gave Schmid 0.35% raw, about 0.45% renormalized, against the book's devigged 1.21%; the market edged us on the winner because Schmid was a longshot to everyone, a rider neither model nor book rated for the stage. The value was in the conditional pool. The whole point of a break read is to strip the GC captains and renormalize the rest into 'if the break wins' odds, and there Pidcock topped our free riders at 3.1% (the book 5.1% outright) — and Pidcock took third and vaulted into the GC top four. The standings-based cut did its job precisely: every rider who actually made the winning break — Schmid, Tejada, Vauquelin, Jegat, O'Connor — sat outside the imprisoned top nine and was free to be read, where a model-blend pool would have jailed some of them. The book's own stage favourite, Carapaz at 7.2%, never featured; he stayed in the bunch and is now 19th on GC.
The hindsight run says course knowledge was not the constraint — the cleanest demonstration this Tour of the hole we keep circling. Reconstructing the day from its finish curve, a nine-man break clear of a shattered peloton, lands on five medium-mountain break wins (Bilbao TdF'23 s10, Cort TdF'22 s10, Berrade Vuelta'24 s18, Rui Costa Vuelta'23 s15, Kron Suisse'21 s6), averaging rolling 0.58 / mountain 0.41 — the identical archetype we published cold. Run on that archetype the board still tops with Pogacar, Seixas and del Toro, the riders who best fit the terrain, and still leaves Schmid 39th at half a percent. That is the GT hard-day hole exactly: the model prices rider-course fit, and by that measure the GC men are the best fits, so its raw board is always the 'break gets caught' branch. What it cannot encode is the tactic that actually decided the stage — that UAE and Visma, the race lead secure, would give a break of non-threats seven minutes and sit up. No profile reference says 'the favourites choose not to race.'
Carry forward. (1) Another clean instance of the hard-day hole after stages 4 and 9, and the shape repeats: the branch is right, the pool archetype is right, the specific winner is a break rider too far down the fitness order to price — and the mitigation that works is the conditional pool, which surfaced Pidcock here as it surfaced the live names on stage 9. (2) The GC has moved for the first time since the second-week mountains: Pidcock is up from tenth to fourth at +4:15 and Jegat from nineteenth to eleventh, but the order behind Pogacar is otherwise intact and the top ten stays tight — Pogacar to Lenny Martinez inside 6:34, then a hard cliff to Jegat at +10:26, the standings line the break pool will cut on tomorrow. (3) Tomorrow is the opposite kind of day: a genuine GC mountain stage the favourites will race, so the hard-day hole recedes and the reconstructed standings — now current through stage 13, with Pidcock's raid and the reshuffled order behind him baked in — feed the GC-outlook head on a day the climbers actually contest.