The same production stack priced under 4 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals GC on the Alpe 130%, Hindsight (post-hoc) 101% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | GC on the Alpe | Climbers' break | Climby-rouleur break | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 50.2% | – | – | 38.4% | 1.75 | 37.6% | +12.7pp |
| Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 14.6% | – | – | 9.5% | 19.00 | 3.5% | +11.2pp |
| Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 9.9% | – | – | 12.4% | 23.00 | 2.9% | +9.6pp |
| del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 8.7% | – | – | 4.9% | 19.00 | 3.5% | +5.3pp |
| Ayuso Juan | Lidl-Trek | 3.0% | – | – | 1.9% | 101.00 | 0.7% | +2.4pp |
| Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 3.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +2.0pp |
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 2.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 1.1% | 101.00 | 0.7% | +2.0pp |
| Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 2.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 4.50 | 14.6% | -12.3pp |
| Hindley Jai | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 2.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 101.00 | 0.7% | +1.6pp |
| Arensman Thymen | Netcompany INEOS | 2.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 23.00 | 2.9% | -0.7pp |
| Gee Derek | Lidl-Trek | 2.1% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +1.6pp |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 51.00 | 1.3% | +0.6pp |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 1.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 51.00 | 1.3% | +0.4pp |
| Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 1.5% | – | – | 1.3% | 101.00 | 0.7% | +0.8pp |
| Jorgenson Matteo | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +0.5pp |
| Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 8.00 | 8.2% | -6.8pp |
| Bernal Egan | Netcompany INEOS | 1.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 126.00 | 0.5% | +0.7pp |
| Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 23.00 | 2.9% | -1.8pp |
| Grégoire Romain | Groupama-FDJ United | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 601.00 | 0.1% | +0.9pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 50.2% | 47.3% | 39.3% | 76.4% | 89.8% | 1.75 |
| 2 | Evenepoel Remco | 14.6% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 38.5% | 81.8% | 19.00 |
| 3 | Seixas Paul | 9.9% | 12.3% | 7.0% | 22.7% | 73.1% | 23.00 |
| 4 | del Toro Isaac | 8.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 17.3% | 72.3% | 19.00 |
| 5 | Ayuso Juan | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 10.1% | 64.0% | 101.00 |
| 6 | Martinez Lenny | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 8.2% | 60.0% | 67.00 |
| 7 | Riccitello Matthew | 2.7% | 5.7% | 1.3% | 10.8% | 37.5% | 101.00 |
| 8 | Carapaz Richard | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 8.3% | 62.4% | 4.50 |
| 9 | Hindley Jai | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 6.9% | 44.1% | 101.00 |
| 10 | Arensman Thymen | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 7.7% | 25.9% | 23.00 |
| 11 | Gee Derek | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 6.3% | 24.4% | 151.00 |
| 12 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 4.3% | 34.8% | 51.00 |
| 13 | Pidcock Tom | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 5.4% | 52.4% | 51.00 |
| 14 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 8.3% | 58.9% | 101.00 |
| 15 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 7.7% | 26.2% | 67.00 |
| 16 | Kuss Sepp | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 5.8% | 32.9% | 8.00 |
| 17 | Bernal Egan | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 5.5% | 37.9% | 126.00 |
| 18 | Piganzoli Davide | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 8.1% | 47.9% | 23.00 |
| 19 | Grégoire Romain | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 6.2% | 24.1% | 601.00 |
| 20 | Van Wilder Ilan | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 5.9% | 40.0% | 201.00 |
| 21 | Vauquelin Kévin | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 5.2% | 22.2% | 401.00 |
| 22 | Yates Adam | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 31.9% | 251.00 |
| 23 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 4.7% | 22.5% | 151.00 |
| 24 | Jegat Jordan | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 10.7% | 60.8% | 201.00 |
| 25 | Higuita Sergio | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 6.0% | 21.1% | 201.00 |
| 26 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 5.4% | 10.9% | 1001.00 |
| 27 | O'Connor Ben | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 22.3% | 101.00 |
| 28 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 15.9% | 81.00 |
| 29 | Voisard Yannis | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 2.9% | 32.8% | 67.00 |
| 30 | Healy Ben | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 8.8% | 201.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martinez Lenny | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 6.1% | 48.3% | 67.00 |
| 2 | Arensman Thymen | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 6.7% | 26.4% | 23.00 |
| 3 | Gee Derek | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 5.8% | 26.2% | 151.00 |
| 4 | Hindley Jai | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 5.4% | 37.4% | 101.00 |
| 5 | Carapaz Richard | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 5.0% | 47.3% | 4.50 |
| 6 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 33.2% | 51.00 |
| 7 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 3.8% | 26.9% | 101.00 |
| 8 | Pidcock Tom | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 11.4% | 61.7% | 51.00 |
| 9 | Kuss Sepp | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 5.7% | 31.6% | 8.00 |
| 10 | Bernal Egan | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 5.7% | 37.1% | 126.00 |
| 11 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 3.7% | 21.8% | 67.00 |
| 12 | Yates Adam | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 31.6% | 251.00 |
| 13 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 7.5% | 49.1% | 23.00 |
| 14 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 5.2% | 21.1% | 401.00 |
| 15 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 6.8% | 39.3% | 201.00 |
| 16 | Grégoire Romain | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 5.8% | 23.5% | 601.00 |
| 17 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 5.5% | 23.7% | 151.00 |
| 18 | Jegat Jordan | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 7.4% | 57.4% | 201.00 |
| 19 | Higuita Sergio | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 8.2% | 22.9% | 201.00 |
| 20 | Healy Ben | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 3.5% | 9.5% | 201.00 |
| 21 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 5.6% | 11.8% | 1001.00 |
| 22 | O'Connor Ben | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 3.2% | 23.7% | 101.00 |
| 23 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 16.9% | 81.00 |
| 24 | Foss Tobias | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.7% | 9.2% | 401.00 |
| 25 | Voisard Yannis | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 2.8% | 31.1% | 67.00 |
| 26 | Braz Afonso Clément | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 11.2% | 501.00 |
| 27 | Baudin Alex | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 15.3% | 301.00 |
| 28 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 10.4% | 251.00 |
| 29 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 3.3% | 18.0% | 301.00 |
| 30 | Storer Michael | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 14.6% | 101.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martinez Lenny | 1.9% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 26.7% | 67.00 |
| 2 | Arensman Thymen | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 7.6% | 24.5% | 23.00 |
| 3 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.6% | 4.9% | 1.2% | 9.2% | 36.9% | 101.00 |
| 4 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 26.7% | 51.00 |
| 5 | Pidcock Tom | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 9.7% | 44.5% | 51.00 |
| 6 | Gee Derek | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 17.9% | 151.00 |
| 7 | Hindley Jai | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 3.9% | 22.8% | 101.00 |
| 8 | Carapaz Richard | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 3.9% | 31.2% | 4.50 |
| 9 | Kuss Sepp | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 5.0% | 21.6% | 8.00 |
| 10 | Grégoire Romain | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 6.6% | 28.1% | 601.00 |
| 11 | Jorgenson Matteo | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 16.8% | 67.00 |
| 12 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 28.9% | 201.00 |
| 13 | Bernal Egan | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 3.5% | 28.9% | 126.00 |
| 14 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 7.0% | 41.8% | 23.00 |
| 15 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 8.8% | 19.5% | 1001.00 |
| 16 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 4.2% | 21.5% | 401.00 |
| 17 | Jegat Jordan | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 8.3% | 40.5% | 201.00 |
| 18 | Yates Adam | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 20.9% | 251.00 |
| 19 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 5.2% | 20.8% | 151.00 |
| 20 | Higuita Sergio | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 4.2% | 23.1% | 201.00 |
| 21 | Aranburu Alex | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 2.7% | 14.3% | 1501.00 |
| 22 | Izagirre Ion | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 3.5% | 16.9% | 501.00 |
| 23 | Storer Michael | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 4.3% | 27.1% | 101.00 |
| 24 | Healy Ben | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 2.8% | 12.1% | 201.00 |
| 25 | O'Connor Ben | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 18.7% | 101.00 |
| 26 | Tejada Harold | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 14.7% | 101.00 |
| 27 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 11.5% | 251.00 |
| 28 | Pedersen Mads | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 7.1% | 1501.00 |
| 29 | Baudin Alex | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 17.6% | 301.00 |
| 30 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 17.1% | 81.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 38.4% | 34.9% | 38.8% | 64.0% | 83.3% | 1.75 |
| 2 | Seixas Paul | 12.4% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 26.6% | 71.6% | 23.00 |
| 3 | Evenepoel Remco | 9.5% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 24.9% | 66.0% | 19.00 |
| 4 | del Toro Isaac | 4.9% | 2.3% | 5.4% | 13.7% | 60.1% | 19.00 |
| 5 | Martinez Lenny | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 6.0% | 54.8% | 67.00 |
| 6 | Carapaz Richard | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 7.3% | 55.1% | 4.50 |
| 7 | Ayuso Juan | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 6.2% | 45.7% | 101.00 |
| 8 | Arensman Thymen | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 7.8% | 27.5% | 23.00 |
| 9 | Gee Derek | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 5.5% | 24.5% | 151.00 |
| 10 | Hindley Jai | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 5.3% | 36.0% | 101.00 |
| 11 | Pidcock Tom | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 48.0% | 51.00 |
| 12 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 32.7% | 51.00 |
| 13 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 6.9% | 61.7% | 101.00 |
| 14 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 4.4% | 28.4% | 101.00 |
| 15 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 3.2% | 18.6% | 67.00 |
| 16 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 4.0% | 40.7% | 201.00 |
| 17 | Kuss Sepp | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 4.7% | 26.7% | 8.00 |
| 18 | Bernal Egan | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 4.2% | 35.9% | 126.00 |
| 19 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 4.4% | 21.3% | 401.00 |
| 20 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 9.2% | 49.8% | 23.00 |
| 21 | Grégoire Romain | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 7.9% | 29.5% | 601.00 |
| 22 | Yates Adam | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 31.5% | 251.00 |
| 23 | Jegat Jordan | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 9.2% | 56.1% | 201.00 |
| 24 | Higuita Sergio | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 5.0% | 23.5% | 201.00 |
| 25 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 5.7% | 12.5% | 1001.00 |
| 26 | Izagirre Ion | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 17.5% | 501.00 |
| 27 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 3.7% | 16.7% | 151.00 |
| 28 | García Raúl | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 3.1% | 8.6% | 401.00 |
| 29 | O'Connor Ben | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 18.2% | 101.00 |
| 30 | Foss Tobias | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 2.5% | 12.8% | 401.00 |
Angle
The top 6 on GC after stage 18 removed — everyone below that is far enough back to be given freedom. Remaining riders under the 'Climbers' break' read; the conditional column renormalizes their win probability over this pool (P(win | a non-GC rider wins), pool holds 33% of the unconditional book). The model can't see who actually makes the break — read this as a fitness-for-the-day ranking, not break-formation odds.
| Rider | Team | Climbers' break win p | P(win | break wins) | Book odds | Book devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 2.3% | 7.1% | 67 | 1.0% |
| Arensman Thymen | Netcompany INEOS | 1.8% | 5.4% | 23 | 2.9% |
| Gee Derek | Lidl-Trek | 1.7% | 5.1% | 151 | 0.4% |
| Hindley Jai | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.7% | 5.1% | 101 | 0.7% |
| Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.6% | 4.8% | 4 | 14.6% |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.6% | 4.7% | 51 | 1.3% |
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.3% | 3.9% | 101 | 0.7% |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 1.3% | 3.8% | 51 | 1.3% |
| Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.1% | 3.4% | 8 | 8.2% |
| Bernal Egan | Netcompany INEOS | 1.0% | 3.0% | 126 | 0.5% |
| Jorgenson Matteo | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.0% | 3.0% | 67 | 1.0% |
| Yates Adam | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 0.9% | 2.8% | 251 | 0.3% |
| Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.8% | 2.5% | 23 | 2.9% |
| Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS | 0.8% | 2.4% | 401 | 0.2% |
Angle
Shortest book prices for the stage, with our blend win probability (and rank) under each scenario. 'free' = outside the excluded GC pool (top 6 on GC after stage 18), i.e. the type the peloton might let up the road.
| Rider | Book odds | Devig | GC on the Alpe | Climbers' break | Climby-rouleur break | GC status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogacar Tadej | 1.75 | 37.6% | 50.2% (#1) | 42.8% (#1) | 25.8% (#1) | GC #1 |
| Carapaz Richard | 4.50 | 14.6% | 2.3% (#8) | 1.6% (#10) | 1.1% (#14) | free |
| Kuss Sepp | 8.00 | 8.2% | 1.4% (#16) | 1.1% (#14) | 0.9% (#15) | free |
| Evenepoel Remco | 19.00 | 3.5% | 14.6% (#2) | 11.4% (#2) | 6.7% (#3) | GC #2 |
| del Toro Isaac | 19.00 | 3.5% | 8.7% (#4) | 6.3% (#4) | 6.0% (#4) | GC #3 |
| Seixas Paul | 23.00 | 2.9% | 9.9% (#3) | 7.3% (#3) | 7.9% (#2) | GC #4 |
| Arensman Thymen | 23.00 | 2.9% | 2.2% (#10) | 1.8% (#7) | 1.8% (#7) | free |
| Piganzoli Davide | 23.00 | 2.9% | 1.0% (#18) | 0.8% (#19) | 0.8% (#20) | free |
| Pidcock Tom | 51.00 | 1.3% | 1.7% (#13) | 1.3% (#13) | 1.2% (#10) | free |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | 51.00 | 1.3% | 1.9% (#12) | 1.6% (#11) | 1.3% (#9) | free |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | GC on the Alpe win p | Climbers' break win p | Climby-rouleur break win p | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 50.2% | 42.8% | 25.8% | 38.4% |
| 2 | Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% |
| 3 | Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
| 4 | Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 5 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% |
| 6 | Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 14.6% | 11.4% | 6.7% | 9.5% |
| 7 | del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 8.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% |
| 8 | Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| 9 | Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 9.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 12.4% |
| 10 | Tejada Harold | XDS Astana Team | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| GC on the Alpe | 50.24% | 37.56% |
| Climbers' break | 42.80% | 37.56% |
| Climby-rouleur break | 25.85% | 37.56% |
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 38.39% | 37.56% |
Reflection
The road picked both branches at once, which is why the day reads as a split verdict rather than a win for either. A climbers' escape went and it stuck for the places — Lenny Martinez, Richard Carapaz, Sepp Kuss and Tobias Halland Johannessen filled second through fifth — but the winner came out of the GC group behind them: Pogačar crossed to the escape on the 21 hairpins and rode away, taking his fifth stage of the race by six seconds from Martinez and nine from Carapaz. The maillot-jaune group arrived 2:29 down with Evenepoel leading it in sixth, del Toro seventh, Skjelmose and Seixas at 2:45. It was the most brutally front-loaded finish of the Tour: one rider at zero, three inside thirty seconds, four inside two minutes, twenty-four inside ten. Nothing on GC moved at the top; Carapaz climbed from tenth to eighth.
On the winner, model and book finished level, and the honest framing matters here. The GC-on-the-Alpe read gave Pogačar 50.2% raw, but that board's blend mass sums to 1.304 — renormalised over the field it is 38.5%, against the devigged book's 37.6%. The LambdaRank head, which is book-preserving by construction, said 39.3%. So the read was right and marginally sharper than the market, not thirteen points sharper. The climbers'-break board, whose mass is much closer to one, renormalises to 41.1% on Pogačar and is the day's best single number. The rouleur read was the only one meaningfully below the market at 31.9%, correctly so.
The conditional break pool is the real result of the day, and it is the direct answer to stage 18's failure. Yesterday the pool's leaders never made the escape and the block scored nothing. Today the four best-placed free riders — Martinez second, Carapaz third, Kuss fourth, Johannessen fifth — were the model's #1, #5, #6 and #9 out of fourteen, and its top pick took the highest non-Pogačar place on the road. On Martinez specifically the model beat the market outright: 2.3% renormalised against a book price of 67 (1.0%), on the man who finished runner-up. The market still won on Carapaz (14.6% against our 1.8%) and Kuss (8.2% against 1.1%) — the same break-intent information we cannot ingest, priced correctly for the second day running. But the ordering inside the pool was sound, which is what that block is for.
The rouleur control settled cleanly for the model, and the hindsight run closes the loop the same way stages 9, 17 and 18 did. The 13.8 km at 8.1% did exactly what a wall is supposed to do to classics engines: Simmons was the best of them in 16th at 6:26, then Van Gils 34th, Schmid 38th, Storer 41st, Vauquelin 52nd, Jorgenson 58th, Healy 80th, Grégoire 89th — after Schmid had taken second on stage 18's 6.7% tempo grade from a 0.3% bury. Two days, two gradients, two opposite answers from the same rider pool: the type contends when the finish is shallow and disappears when it is steep, which is the axis the model already encodes. Fed the five nearest gap-curve neighbours after the fact — Bernal at Cortina, Pogačar at Livigno and on the Dauphiné, Vingegaard at Paris-Nice, Gall at Courchevel, all GC-star solos on shattered mountain days — hindsight gives Pogačar 37.9% renormalised, statistically identical to the 38.5% the pre-race read already had. Course knowledge was not the constraint for the fourth stage running. Carry-forward: the break-intent gap is now a two-day pattern with a clear shape — the book concentrates on riders whose teams have declared for the stage, we spread across riders who fit the terrain, and on stage 19 that spread was well-ordered enough to find the runner-up the book had at 67. A presentation-layer break-intent prior seeded from the book's own card remains the obvious post-Paris experiment.