Cycling race predictor · Tour de Langkawi

GC tracker — the favourites, stage by stage

After every stage the race-aware GC outlook head re-prices the final general classification from the standings, the gaps and the stages left. It is the one part of the model that watches the race, so it leads this page; the pre-race blend, which only knows what happened before the start, is shown beside it for contrast. Each column is one evening's logged opinion; the current board sits on top.

state through stage 8 classification through stage 8 105 riders still in the race 1 checkpoints logged updated 2026-10-04

← Tour de Langkawi, stage by stage · system overview

The current top 10

#	Rider	Team	GC gap after s8	Outlook sees the race	Pre-race blend form + references only	Book devig
1	Jasch Lennart	Tudor Pro Cycling Team	0:00	85.4%	5.4%	–
2	Balderstone Abel	Caja Rural-Seguros RGA	+0:26	4.4%	4.0%	–
3	Castellon Jan	Caja Rural-Seguros RGA	+0:42	2.6%	18.5%	–
4	Diaz Jose Manuel	Burgos Burpellet BH	+1:20	0.4%	2.8%	–
5	Fougner Eivind Broholt	Unibet Rose Rockets	+1:37	0.3%	0.3%	–
6	de Bod Stefan	Modern Adventure Pro Cycling	+6:14	0.2%	1.9%	–
7	Gutiérrez Jorge	Equipo Kern Pharma	+1:55	0.2%	3.2%	–
8	Le Berre Mathis	Team TotalEnergies	+3:23	0.2%	0.8%	–
9	Bregnhøj Mathias	Terengganu Cycling Team	+2:58	0.2%	0.9%	–
10	Burnett Josh	Burgos Burpellet BH	+2:56	0.1%	0.4%	–

Ordered by the outlook head, the one head that sees the race state: standings, gaps and stages remaining. It scores contenders only (a rider it never priced shows a dash) and its per-rider numbers do not sum to exactly one book, so read a row as "how safe is this position" rather than as a like-for-like price. The pre-race blend is the main heads with live form and the DNF-adjusted active field: it prices the final GC from what happened before the race and never sees the standings, which is why it barely moves from one evening to the next and why a rider who has already lost an hour can still carry his pre-race price there. It sums to 85% over the field, so compare it with the book column directionally only.

How the race has actually gone

Rider	after s1	after s2	after s3	after s4	after s5	after s6	after s7	after s8
Jasch Lennart	32+0:10	10:00	10:00	10:00	10:00	10:00	10:00	10:00
Balderstone Abel	59+0:10	2+0:20	2+0:20	2+0:20	2+0:26	2+0:26	2+0:26	2+0:26
Castellon Jan	41+0:10	3+0:38	3+0:38	3+0:38	3+0:42	3+0:42	3+0:42	3+0:42
Diaz Jose Manuel	83+0:10	4+1:14	4+1:14	4+1:14	4+1:20	4+1:20	4+1:20	4+1:20
Fougner Eivind Broholt	96+0:10	6+1:16	6+1:16	6+1:16	5+1:37	5+1:37	5+1:37	5+1:37
Gutiérrez Jorge	45+0:10	9+1:41	9+1:41	9+1:41	6+1:55	6+1:55	6+1:55	6+1:55
Burnett Josh	79+0:10	17+3:20	17+3:20	17+3:20	7+2:56	7+2:56	7+2:56	7+2:56
Bregnhøj Mathias	56+0:10	10+1:46	10+1:46	10+1:46	8+2:58	8+2:58	8+2:58	8+2:58
Le Berre Mathis	25+0:10	8+1:36	8+1:36	8+1:36	9+3:25	9+3:25	9+3:25	9+3:23
Christophersen Cedrik Bakke	72+0:10	5+1:15	5+1:15	5+1:15	10+3:30	10+3:30	10+3:30	10+3:30
Stepanov Andrei	5+0:06	33+6:14	33+6:14	31+6:14	24+10:46	24+10:46	23+10:01	22+10:01
Ibanez Javier	2+0:03	44+9:47	44+9:47	38+8:05	53+27:40	52+27:40	51+27:40	50+27:36
Villar Iker	10+0:10	94+22:04	93+22:04	73+24:50	75+44:25	74+44:25	74+44:25	73+45:13
Kelemen Petr	8+0:09	67+15:21	68+15:21	68+21:29	74+44:21	75+44:51	75+44:51	75+46:09
Pickrell Riley	3+0:04	90+21:58	89+21:52	93+35:08	92+58:00	89+57:50	89+57:50	86+57:42
Rosli Aiman	6+0:06	86+20:47	97+22:18	105+37:44	88+56:29	87+57:23	85+57:23	87+57:53
Gaviria Fernando	4+0:06	91+22:00	90+22:00	104+37:44	100+61:21	96+62:01	95+62:01	93+61:59
Cuthbertson Liam	7+0:08	110+26:04	109+26:04	109+39:20	106+65:44	103+65:44	101+65:44	100+65:44
Malucelli Matteo	10:00	100+22:44	100+22:34	106+38:14	108+67:15	105+67:09	103+67:09	102+66:57
Augé Ronan	9+0:10	102+22:56	102+22:56	83+29:09	81+52:26	out	out	out
Gaffuri Mattia	88+0:10	7+1:23	7+1:23	7+1:23	out	out	out	out

The official classification after each stage, from the FirstCycling results archive — place, with the gap to the leader beneath it. Every rider who has held a top-10 place, ordered by the current standing; "out" = no longer classified.

How the race-aware board moved

Rider	after s8 🟡 Jasch
Jasch Lennart	85.4%
Balderstone Abel	4.4%
Castellon Jan	2.6%
Diaz Jose Manuel	0.4%
Fougner Eivind Broholt	0.3%
de Bod Stefan	0.2%
Gutiérrez Jorge	0.2%
Le Berre Mathis	0.2%
Bregnhøj Mathias	0.2%
Burnett Josh	0.1%

The GC outlook head at each checkpoint — every rider who has appeared in its top-10, ordered by the current board. Bold = inside that evening's top-10; "out" = no longer in the race when that opinion was logged. 🟡 names the actual race leader at each checkpoint. Columns are labelled by the stage the road had reached, which is what the state was built from. This head sees the standings, the gaps and the stages remaining, so it is the row that should move when the race does; it scores contenders only, so a rider it never priced shows a dash.

The pre-race view, for contrast

Rider	after s8 🟡 Jasch
Castellon Jan	18.5%
Breuillard Nicolas	12.0%
Jasch Lennart	5.4%
López Martin	4.6%
Aparicio Mario	4.5%
Balderstone Abel	4.0%
Cavia Daniel	3.3%
Christophersen Cedrik Bakke	3.2%
Gutiérrez Jorge	3.2%
Diaz Jose Manuel	2.8%

Model GC win probability (blend) at each checkpoint — every rider who has appeared in a top-10, ordered by the current board. Bold = inside that evening's top-10; "out" = no longer in the race when that opinion was logged. 🟡 names the actual race leader at each checkpoint. The row is close to flat by construction — these heads price the final GC from form and the reference editions, and never see the standings — so treat this table as the baseline the race-aware head above is moving against, not as a forecast of the race as it stands.