The same production stack priced under 2 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Main read 91%, Alt: res_3 61% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Main read | Alt: res_3 | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malucelli Matteo | XDS Astana Team | 44.3% | 2.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Syritsa Gleb | XDS Astana Team | 11.4% | 0.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Gaviria Fernando | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 6.4% | 0.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Cavia Daniel | Burgos Burpellet BH | 6.3% | 6.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Breuillard Nicolas | Team TotalEnergies | 0.1% | 5.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Le Berre Mathis | Team TotalEnergies | 2.1% | 4.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Castellon Jan | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 0.1% | 3.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Augé Ronan | Unibet Rose Rockets | 3.0% | 0.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Jasch Lennart | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 0.3% | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Gate Aaron | XDS Astana Team | 0.9% | 2.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Aparicio Mario | Burgos Burpellet BH | 0.0% | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Pickrell Riley | Modern Adventure Pro Cycling | 2.2% | 0.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Hoogendoorn Roy | Team Picnic PostNL | 2.2% | 0.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Gutiérrez Jorge | Equipo Kern Pharma | 0.1% | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Bouchard Geoffrey | Team TotalEnergies | 0.0% | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | Unibet Rose Rockets | 0.0% | 2.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Rikunov Petr | Wheeltop Rotor Chengdu Team | 0.8% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Balderstone Abel | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 0.0% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Gaffuri Mattia | Team Picnic PostNL | 0.0% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Covili Luca | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 0.1% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| de Bod Stefan | Modern Adventure Pro Cycling | 0.0% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Delle Vedove Alessio | XDS Astana Team | 1.1% | 0.1% | n/a | – | – |
| López Martin | XDS Astana Team | 0.0% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malucelli Matteo | 44.3% | 45.6% | 48.4% | 62.7% | 79.4% | n/a |
| 2 | Syritsa Gleb | 11.4% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 34.1% | 59.7% | n/a |
| 3 | Gaviria Fernando | 6.4% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 15.0% | 45.0% | n/a |
| 4 | Cavia Daniel | 6.3% | 2.9% | 7.8% | 15.4% | 60.9% | n/a |
| 5 | Augé Ronan | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 8.8% | 44.5% | n/a |
| 6 | Pickrell Riley | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 12.5% | 45.8% | n/a |
| 7 | Hoogendoorn Roy | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 8.8% | 47.0% | n/a |
| 8 | Le Berre Mathis | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 40.3% | n/a |
| 9 | Delle Vedove Alessio | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 3.5% | 32.3% | n/a |
| 10 | Cettolin Filippo | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 31.1% | n/a |
| 11 | Álvarez Rodrigo | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 7.3% | 49.1% | n/a |
| 12 | Gate Aaron | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 4.5% | 26.4% | n/a |
| 13 | McGill Scott | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 4.7% | 32.6% | n/a |
| 14 | Rikunov Petr | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 5.0% | 36.3% | n/a |
| 15 | Abdul Halil Mohamad Izzat Hilmi | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 3.5% | 25.0% | n/a |
| 16 | Huby Antoine | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 19.9% | n/a |
| 17 | Van Den Boer Seppe | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 21.5% | n/a |
| 18 | Corkery Dillon | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 3.3% | 27.7% | n/a |
| 19 | Jasch Lennart | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 18.0% | n/a |
| 20 | Retegi Mikel | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 23.5% | n/a |
| 21 | Townsend Rory | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 8.7% | n/a |
| 22 | Gonov Lev | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 19.9% | n/a |
| 23 | Mohd Nawawi Muhamad Iqbal Daniel | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 15.6% | n/a |
| 24 | Donzé Robin | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 11.4% | n/a |
| 25 | Meris Sergio | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 11.8% | n/a |
| 26 | Park Ji Hwan | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 11.4% | n/a |
| 27 | Villar Iker | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 23.0% | n/a |
| 28 | Arifin Muh Imam | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 14.3% | n/a |
| 29 | van Rees Christiaan | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 16.9% | n/a |
| 30 | Castellon Jan | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 11.4% | n/a |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavia Daniel | 6.1% | 5.1% | 10.3% | 16.7% | 49.4% | n/a |
| 2 | Breuillard Nicolas | 5.3% | 4.2% | 8.9% | 15.3% | 54.9% | n/a |
| 3 | Le Berre Mathis | 4.5% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 45.6% | n/a |
| 4 | Castellon Jan | 3.9% | 2.5% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 54.7% | n/a |
| 5 | Jasch Lennart | 2.8% | 2.1% | 4.8% | 9.4% | 47.6% | n/a |
| 6 | Gate Aaron | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 11.4% | 39.9% | n/a |
| 7 | Aparicio Mario | 2.2% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 44.8% | n/a |
| 8 | Gutiérrez Jorge | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 7.3% | 42.0% | n/a |
| 9 | Bouchard Geoffrey | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 36.4% | n/a |
| 10 | Malucelli Matteo | 2.0% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 12.3% | 29.0% | n/a |
| 11 | Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | 2.0% | 1.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 34.1% | n/a |
| 12 | Rikunov Petr | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 5.8% | 36.9% | n/a |
| 13 | Balderstone Abel | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 9.5% | 34.5% | n/a |
| 14 | Gaffuri Mattia | 1.5% | 0.7% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 35.8% | n/a |
| 15 | Covili Luca | 1.2% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 35.9% | n/a |
| 16 | de Bod Stefan | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 25.5% | n/a |
| 17 | López Martin | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 6.5% | 24.3% | n/a |
| 18 | Huby Antoine | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 4.6% | 27.9% | n/a |
| 19 | Diaz Jose Manuel | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 25.4% | n/a |
| 20 | Meris Sergio | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 25.3% | n/a |
| 21 | Hoogendoorn Roy | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 4.2% | 21.5% | n/a |
| 22 | Gaviria Fernando | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 5.5% | 17.1% | n/a |
| 23 | Martinez Juan Guillermo | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 4.6% | 38.8% | n/a |
| 24 | Stepanov Andrei | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 23.6% | n/a |
| 25 | Herreño Martín | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 25.4% | n/a |
| 26 | Retegi Mikel | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 16.2% | n/a |
| 27 | Donzé Robin | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 18.4% | n/a |
| 28 | Álvarez Rodrigo | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 16.6% | n/a |
| 29 | Syritsa Gleb | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 4.6% | 14.9% | n/a |
| 30 | Bregnhøj Mathias | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 16.3% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Main read win p | Alt: res_3 win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malucelli Matteo | XDS Astana Team | 44.3% | 2.0% |
| 2 | Pickrell Riley | Modern Adventure Pro Cycling | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| 3 | Gaviria Fernando | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 6.4% | 0.8% |
| 4 | Augé Ronan | Unibet Rose Rockets | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| 5 | Villar Iker | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 6 | Álvarez Rodrigo | Burgos Burpellet BH | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 7 | Oda Hijiri | Aisan Racing Team | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 8 | Syritsa Gleb | XDS Astana Team | 11.4% | 0.4% |
| 9 | Van Den Boer Seppe | TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM U23 | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 10 | Cettolin Filippo | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Main read | 44.32% | – |
| Alt: res_3 | 2.01% | – |