The same production stack priced under 2 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Main read 78%, Alt: gc_day 76% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Main read | Alt: gc_day | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellon Jan | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 12.1% | 14.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Breuillard Nicolas | Team TotalEnergies | 12.1% | 12.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Aparicio Mario | Burgos Burpellet BH | 4.8% | 5.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Jasch Lennart | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 3.5% | 3.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Gaffuri Mattia | Team Picnic PostNL | 3.4% | 3.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Balderstone Abel | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 3.4% | 3.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | Unibet Rose Rockets | 3.2% | 3.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Cavia Daniel | Burgos Burpellet BH | 3.0% | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Gutiérrez Jorge | Equipo Kern Pharma | 2.9% | 3.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Le Berre Mathis | Team TotalEnergies | 2.4% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| López Martin | XDS Astana Team | 2.2% | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Gate Aaron | XDS Astana Team | 2.2% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| de Bod Stefan | Modern Adventure Pro Cycling | 2.1% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Covili Luca | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 2.1% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Rikunov Petr | Wheeltop Rotor Chengdu Team | 1.5% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Herreño Martín | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 1.2% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Diaz Jose Manuel | Burgos Burpellet BH | 1.1% | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Cruz Martínez Edward | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 1.1% | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Meris Sergio | Unibet Rose Rockets | 1.0% | 0.8% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Breuillard Nicolas | 12.1% | 10.4% | 16.0% | 35.1% | 76.8% | n/a |
| 2 | Castellon Jan | 12.1% | 8.6% | 16.4% | 31.7% | 80.4% | n/a |
| 3 | Aparicio Mario | 4.8% | 2.6% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 58.8% | n/a |
| 4 | Jasch Lennart | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 11.9% | 58.2% | n/a |
| 5 | Balderstone Abel | 3.4% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 21.3% | 56.8% | n/a |
| 6 | Gaffuri Mattia | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 12.0% | 53.3% | n/a |
| 7 | Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | 3.2% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 41.5% | n/a |
| 8 | Cavia Daniel | 3.0% | 1.8% | 4.2% | 7.9% | 31.7% | n/a |
| 9 | Gutiérrez Jorge | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 9.6% | 49.7% | n/a |
| 10 | Le Berre Mathis | 2.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 8.2% | 46.9% | n/a |
| 11 | López Martin | 2.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 13.7% | 37.0% | n/a |
| 12 | Gate Aaron | 2.2% | 0.8% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 6.5% | n/a |
| 13 | de Bod Stefan | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 8.5% | 40.4% | n/a |
| 14 | Covili Luca | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 7.0% | 56.5% | n/a |
| 15 | Rikunov Petr | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 7.4% | 47.9% | n/a |
| 16 | Herreño Martín | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 7.7% | 42.9% | n/a |
| 17 | Diaz Jose Manuel | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 5.9% | 50.6% | n/a |
| 18 | Cruz Martínez Edward | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 7.0% | 40.4% | n/a |
| 19 | Meris Sergio | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 29.8% | n/a |
| 20 | Huby Antoine | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 18.8% | n/a |
| 21 | Stepanov Andrei | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 3.4% | 31.9% | n/a |
| 22 | Arriola-Bengoa Julen | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 28.8% | n/a |
| 23 | Bregnhøj Mathias | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.9% | 28.8% | n/a |
| 24 | Burnett Josh | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 26.3% | n/a |
| 25 | Donzé Robin | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 15.0% | n/a |
| 26 | Caicedo Jonathan | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 5.6% | 32.9% | n/a |
| 27 | Retegi Mikel | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 22.8% | n/a |
| 28 | Whitehouse Daniel | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 14.4% | n/a |
| 29 | Milostic Lindon | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.5% | 33.7% | n/a |
| 30 | Jousseaume Alan | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 25.4% | n/a |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellon Jan | 14.0% | 10.4% | 19.4% | 37.0% | 81.5% | n/a |
| 2 | Breuillard Nicolas | 12.1% | 11.1% | 16.2% | 34.9% | 77.0% | n/a |
| 3 | Aparicio Mario | 5.1% | 3.7% | 7.2% | 14.8% | 65.4% | n/a |
| 4 | Jasch Lennart | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 12.3% | 58.4% | n/a |
| 5 | Gaffuri Mattia | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 15.3% | 59.5% | n/a |
| 6 | Balderstone Abel | 3.4% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 21.4% | 59.5% | n/a |
| 7 | Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | 3.0% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 8.1% | 44.3% | n/a |
| 8 | Gutiérrez Jorge | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 10.5% | 53.0% | n/a |
| 9 | Cavia Daniel | 2.5% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 26.7% | n/a |
| 10 | López Martin | 2.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 13.7% | 38.1% | n/a |
| 11 | de Bod Stefan | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 7.9% | 39.6% | n/a |
| 12 | Covili Luca | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 6.2% | 55.3% | n/a |
| 13 | Gate Aaron | 1.8% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 5.8% | n/a |
| 14 | Le Berre Mathis | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 5.3% | 43.3% | n/a |
| 15 | Rikunov Petr | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 5.2% | 44.2% | n/a |
| 16 | Herreño Martín | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 7.5% | 43.2% | n/a |
| 17 | Diaz Jose Manuel | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 31.7% | n/a |
| 18 | Cruz Martínez Edward | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 6.9% | 42.5% | n/a |
| 19 | Meris Sergio | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 27.8% | n/a |
| 20 | Stepanov Andrei | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 3.1% | 30.8% | n/a |
| 21 | Bregnhøj Mathias | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 32.3% | n/a |
| 22 | Huby Antoine | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 16.8% | n/a |
| 23 | Burnett Josh | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 30.0% | n/a |
| 24 | Arriola-Bengoa Julen | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 33.4% | n/a |
| 25 | Donzé Robin | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 13.2% | n/a |
| 26 | Caicedo Jonathan | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 3.4% | 35.4% | n/a |
| 27 | Whitehouse Daniel | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 16.4% | n/a |
| 28 | Milostic Lindon | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 38.3% | n/a |
| 29 | Chaiyasombat Thanakhan | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 15.1% | n/a |
| 30 | Jousseaume Alan | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 22.5% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Main read win p | Alt: gc_day win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jasch Lennart | TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM | 3.5% | 3.6% |
| 2 | Balderstone Abel | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 3 | Castellon Jan | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 12.1% | 14.0% |
| 4 | Diaz Jose Manuel | Burgos Burpellet BH | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| 5 | Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | Unibet Rose Rockets | 3.2% | 3.0% |
| 6 | Fougner Eivind Broholt | Unibet Rose Rockets | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 7 | Gaffuri Mattia | Team Picnic PostNL | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| 8 | Le Berre Mathis | Team TotalEnergies | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| 9 | Gutiérrez Jorge | Equipo Kern Pharma | 2.9% | 3.0% |
| 10 | Bregnhøj Mathias | Terengganu Cycling Team | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Main read | 3.54% | – |
| Alt: gc_day | 3.65% | – |