The same production stack priced under 2 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Main read 61%, Alt: gc_day 69% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Main read | Alt: gc_day | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellon Jan | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 7.5% | 13.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Breuillard Nicolas | Team TotalEnergies | 4.4% | 7.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Jasch Lennart | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 5.9% | 5.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Cavia Daniel | Burgos Burpellet BH | 5.6% | 3.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Malucelli Matteo | XDS Astana Team | 3.8% | 0.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Aparicio Mario | Burgos Burpellet BH | 1.4% | 3.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Gaffuri Mattia | Team Picnic PostNL | 1.5% | 3.1% | n/a | – | – |
| López Martin | XDS Astana Team | 1.5% | 3.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | Unibet Rose Rockets | 2.3% | 3.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Balderstone Abel | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 1.9% | 2.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Gutiérrez Jorge | Equipo Kern Pharma | 1.4% | 2.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Diaz Jose Manuel | Burgos Burpellet BH | 1.5% | 2.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Covili Luca | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 1.1% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Rikunov Petr | Wheeltop Rotor Chengdu Team | 1.8% | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Gaviria Fernando | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 1.7% | 0.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Gate Aaron | XDS Astana Team | 1.3% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Huby Antoine | 7Eleven Cliqq Roadbike Philippines | 1.0% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| de Bod Stefan | Modern Adventure Pro Cycling | 0.8% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Herreño Martín | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 0.8% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellon Jan | 7.5% | 4.6% | 13.1% | 18.5% | 71.7% | n/a |
| 2 | Jasch Lennart | 5.9% | 4.3% | 10.0% | 18.5% | 67.7% | n/a |
| 3 | Cavia Daniel | 5.6% | 4.8% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 33.5% | n/a |
| 4 | Breuillard Nicolas | 4.4% | 3.3% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 52.1% | n/a |
| 5 | Malucelli Matteo | 3.8% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 16.2% | 24.6% | n/a |
| 6 | Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | 2.3% | 1.0% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 49.7% | n/a |
| 7 | Balderstone Abel | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 9.5% | 58.2% | n/a |
| 8 | Rikunov Petr | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 6.8% | 41.3% | n/a |
| 9 | Gaviria Fernando | 1.7% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 13.2% | n/a |
| 10 | Gaffuri Mattia | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 50.8% | n/a |
| 11 | López Martin | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 7.9% | 39.1% | n/a |
| 12 | Diaz Jose Manuel | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 6.1% | 52.5% | n/a |
| 13 | Aparicio Mario | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 16.8% | n/a |
| 14 | Gutiérrez Jorge | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 45.7% | n/a |
| 15 | Gate Aaron | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 15.6% | n/a |
| 16 | Covili Luca | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 47.9% | n/a |
| 17 | Huby Antoine | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 4.6% | 38.5% | n/a |
| 18 | Van Den Boer Seppe | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 10.5% | n/a |
| 19 | Le Berre Mathis | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 9.0% | 45.0% | n/a |
| 20 | Retegi Mikel | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 4.1% | 37.6% | n/a |
| 21 | Herreño Martín | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 4.4% | 45.3% | n/a |
| 22 | de Bod Stefan | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 3.4% | 35.2% | n/a |
| 23 | Meris Sergio | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 24.1% | n/a |
| 24 | Álvarez Rodrigo | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 4.0% | 20.2% | n/a |
| 25 | Donzé Robin | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 33.9% | n/a |
| 26 | Syritsa Gleb | 0.6% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 5.0% | n/a |
| 27 | Augé Ronan | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 8.7% | n/a |
| 28 | Bregnhøj Mathias | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 34.4% | n/a |
| 29 | Stepanov Andrei | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 12.7% | n/a |
| 30 | Gimeno Nil | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 28.0% | n/a |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellon Jan | 13.7% | 8.6% | 21.1% | 28.5% | 87.2% | n/a |
| 2 | Breuillard Nicolas | 7.8% | 6.5% | 11.7% | 17.9% | 58.5% | n/a |
| 3 | Jasch Lennart | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 23.8% | 82.8% | n/a |
| 4 | Aparicio Mario | 3.2% | 2.0% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 39.5% | n/a |
| 5 | Cavia Daniel | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 16.1% | n/a |
| 6 | Gaffuri Mattia | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 13.3% | 81.4% | n/a |
| 7 | López Martin | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 14.8% | 56.4% | n/a |
| 8 | Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | 3.0% | 2.0% | 4.6% | 10.1% | 73.1% | n/a |
| 9 | Balderstone Abel | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 13.9% | 76.7% | n/a |
| 10 | Gutiérrez Jorge | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 8.6% | 64.1% | n/a |
| 11 | Diaz Jose Manuel | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 11.8% | 76.6% | n/a |
| 12 | Covili Luca | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 58.0% | n/a |
| 13 | Gate Aaron | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 10.3% | n/a |
| 14 | Huby Antoine | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 5.1% | 39.2% | n/a |
| 15 | de Bod Stefan | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 5.1% | 43.6% | n/a |
| 16 | Herreño Martín | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 6.3% | 59.0% | n/a |
| 17 | Rikunov Petr | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 27.2% | n/a |
| 18 | Bregnhøj Mathias | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 6.3% | 59.9% | n/a |
| 19 | Meris Sergio | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 3.6% | 20.1% | n/a |
| 20 | Le Berre Mathis | 0.7% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 8.6% | 51.2% | n/a |
| 21 | Van Den Boer Seppe | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 5.4% | n/a |
| 22 | Haug Kieran | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 40.9% | n/a |
| 23 | Stepanov Andrei | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 12.3% | n/a |
| 24 | Cruz Martínez Edward | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 10.8% | n/a |
| 25 | Burnett Josh | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 26.9% | n/a |
| 26 | Caicedo Jonathan | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 16.0% | n/a |
| 27 | Arriola-Bengoa Julen | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 8.1% | n/a |
| 28 | Whitehouse Daniel | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 13.3% | n/a |
| 29 | Retegi Mikel | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 13.6% | n/a |
| 30 | Álvarez Rodrigo | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 5.8% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Main read win p | Alt: gc_day win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Breuillard Nicolas | Team TotalEnergies | 4.4% | 7.8% |
| 2 | Burnett Josh | Burgos Burpellet BH | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 3 | Jasch Lennart | TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM | 5.9% | 5.3% |
| 4 | Castellon Jan | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 7.5% | 13.7% |
| 5 | Diaz Jose Manuel | Burgos Burpellet BH | 1.5% | 2.4% |
| 6 | Balderstone Abel | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 1.9% | 2.7% |
| 7 | Gutiérrez Jorge | Equipo Kern Pharma | 1.4% | 2.7% |
| 8 | Fougner Eivind Broholt | Unibet Rose Rockets | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 9 | Bregnhøj Mathias | Terengganu Cycling Team | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| 10 | Arriola-Bengoa Julen | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Main read | 4.37% | – |
| Alt: gc_day | 7.80% | – |