The same production stack priced under 2 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Main read 87%, Alt: res_3 68% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Main read | Alt: res_3 | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malucelli Matteo | XDS Astana Team | 26.0% | 6.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Gaviria Fernando | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 14.9% | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Cavia Daniel | Burgos Burpellet BH | 10.3% | 6.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Syritsa Gleb | XDS Astana Team | 8.6% | 0.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Castellon Jan | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 0.6% | 7.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Breuillard Nicolas | Team TotalEnergies | 0.3% | 4.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Jasch Lennart | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 0.9% | 4.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Augé Ronan | Unibet Rose Rockets | 4.1% | 0.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | Unibet Rose Rockets | 0.3% | 2.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Gutiérrez Jorge | Equipo Kern Pharma | 0.1% | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Aparicio Mario | Burgos Burpellet BH | 0.1% | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Pickrell Riley | Modern Adventure Pro Cycling | 2.1% | 0.2% | n/a | – | – |
| López Martin | XDS Astana Team | 0.2% | 2.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Abdul Halil Mohamad Izzat Hilmi | Malaysia Pro Cycling | 2.0% | 0.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Balderstone Abel | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 0.1% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Gate Aaron | XDS Astana Team | 1.0% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Diaz Jose Manuel | Burgos Burpellet BH | 0.2% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Hoogendoorn Roy | Team Picnic PostNL | 1.3% | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Rikunov Petr | Wheeltop Rotor Chengdu Team | 1.0% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Van Den Boer Seppe | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 1.3% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Álvarez Rodrigo | Burgos Burpellet BH | 1.1% | 0.8% | n/a | – | – |
| de Bod Stefan | Modern Adventure Pro Cycling | 0.1% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Le Berre Mathis | Team TotalEnergies | 1.0% | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malucelli Matteo | 26.0% | 27.4% | 29.7% | 62.1% | 74.9% | n/a |
| 2 | Gaviria Fernando | 14.9% | 11.2% | 18.2% | 30.7% | 51.2% | n/a |
| 3 | Cavia Daniel | 10.3% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 24.0% | 65.4% | n/a |
| 4 | Syritsa Gleb | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 24.0% | 44.6% | n/a |
| 5 | Augé Ronan | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 17.1% | 53.7% | n/a |
| 6 | Pickrell Riley | 2.1% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 18.5% | 51.1% | n/a |
| 7 | Abdul Halil Mohamad Izzat Hilmi | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 7.7% | 27.9% | n/a |
| 8 | Hoogendoorn Roy | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 8.4% | 40.2% | n/a |
| 9 | Van Den Boer Seppe | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 6.5% | 32.7% | n/a |
| 10 | Álvarez Rodrigo | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 5.3% | 48.9% | n/a |
| 11 | Le Berre Mathis | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 7.1% | 40.5% | n/a |
| 12 | Gate Aaron | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 4.2% | 25.2% | n/a |
| 13 | Rikunov Petr | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 5.3% | 41.5% | n/a |
| 14 | Villar Iker | 0.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 9.7% | 42.4% | n/a |
| 15 | Jasch Lennart | 0.9% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 27.5% | n/a |
| 16 | Castellon Jan | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 11.7% | n/a |
| 17 | McGill Scott | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 5.8% | 32.4% | n/a |
| 18 | Corkery Dillon | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 4.7% | 32.0% | n/a |
| 19 | Retegi Mikel | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 30.1% | n/a |
| 20 | Huby Antoine | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 26.9% | n/a |
| 21 | Cettolin Filippo | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 6.3% | 44.2% | n/a |
| 22 | Delle Vedove Alessio | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 23.2% | n/a |
| 23 | Mohd Nawawi Muhamad Iqbal Daniel | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 4.4% | 20.0% | n/a |
| 24 | Meris Sergio | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 12.7% | n/a |
| 25 | Breuillard Nicolas | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 17.9% | n/a |
| 26 | Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 6.1% | n/a |
| 27 | Oda Hijiri | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 25.4% | n/a |
| 28 | Donzé Robin | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 16.8% | n/a |
| 29 | Diaz Jose Manuel | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 7.9% | n/a |
| 30 | Meisa Ade | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 21.2% | n/a |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellon Jan | 7.2% | 3.4% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 66.6% | n/a |
| 2 | Cavia Daniel | 6.6% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 17.5% | 45.8% | n/a |
| 3 | Malucelli Matteo | 6.3% | 14.0% | 7.2% | 30.1% | 40.2% | n/a |
| 4 | Breuillard Nicolas | 4.5% | 1.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 45.2% | n/a |
| 5 | Jasch Lennart | 4.1% | 2.7% | 6.4% | 11.8% | 69.6% | n/a |
| 6 | Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | 2.9% | 1.5% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 47.7% | n/a |
| 7 | Gaviria Fernando | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 7.3% | 16.4% | n/a |
| 8 | Gutiérrez Jorge | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 46.5% | n/a |
| 9 | Aparicio Mario | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 24.4% | n/a |
| 10 | López Martin | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 7.8% | 37.5% | n/a |
| 11 | Balderstone Abel | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 46.3% | n/a |
| 12 | Gate Aaron | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 7.1% | 27.6% | n/a |
| 13 | Diaz Jose Manuel | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 6.5% | 54.1% | n/a |
| 14 | Rikunov Petr | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 5.1% | 34.4% | n/a |
| 15 | Van Den Boer Seppe | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 21.0% | n/a |
| 16 | de Bod Stefan | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 33.5% | n/a |
| 17 | Le Berre Mathis | 1.0% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 8.5% | 45.5% | n/a |
| 18 | Hoogendoorn Roy | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 6.1% | 23.9% | n/a |
| 19 | Huby Antoine | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 31.3% | n/a |
| 20 | Bregnhøj Mathias | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 40.8% | n/a |
| 21 | Herreño Martín | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 3.6% | 25.2% | n/a |
| 22 | Meris Sergio | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 4.4% | 23.6% | n/a |
| 23 | Augé Ronan | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 6.4% | 22.7% | n/a |
| 24 | Álvarez Rodrigo | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 14.8% | n/a |
| 25 | Covili Luca | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 29.5% | n/a |
| 26 | Retegi Mikel | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 17.3% | n/a |
| 27 | Stepanov Andrei | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 13.9% | n/a |
| 28 | Syritsa Gleb | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 3.9% | 11.9% | n/a |
| 29 | Haug Kieran | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 25.9% | n/a |
| 30 | Donzé Robin | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 20.4% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Main read win p | Alt: res_3 win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pickrell Riley | Modern Adventure Pro Cycling | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| 2 | Malucelli Matteo | XDS Astana Team | 26.0% | 6.3% |
| 3 | Van Den Boer Seppe | TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM U23 | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| 4 | Townsend Rory | Unibet Rose Rockets | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 5 | van Rees Christiaan | Team Picnic PostNL | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 6 | Le Berre Mathis | Team TotalEnergies | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| 7 | Álvarez Rodrigo | Burgos Burpellet BH | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| 8 | Cavia Daniel | Burgos Burpellet BH | 10.3% | 6.6% |
| 9 | Villar Iker | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 10 | Ibanez Javier | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Main read | 2.09% | – |
| Alt: res_3 | 0.22% | – |