The same production stack priced under 2 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Main read 96%, Alt: res_3 73% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Main read | Alt: res_3 | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malucelli Matteo | XDS Astana Team | 39.8% | 4.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Gaviria Fernando | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 14.8% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Syritsa Gleb | XDS Astana Team | 9.6% | 0.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Castellon Jan | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 0.1% | 8.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Cavia Daniel | Burgos Burpellet BH | 7.8% | 6.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Jasch Lennart | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 0.4% | 5.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Breuillard Nicolas | Team TotalEnergies | 0.1% | 5.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Pickrell Riley | Modern Adventure Pro Cycling | 5.2% | 0.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Abdul Halil Mohamad Izzat Hilmi | Malaysia Pro Cycling | 2.9% | 0.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | Unibet Rose Rockets | 0.1% | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Aparicio Mario | Burgos Burpellet BH | 0.0% | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| López Martin | XDS Astana Team | 0.0% | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Gutiérrez Jorge | Equipo Kern Pharma | 0.1% | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Diaz Jose Manuel | Burgos Burpellet BH | 0.1% | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Balderstone Abel | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 0.0% | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Gate Aaron | XDS Astana Team | 0.7% | 2.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Hoogendoorn Roy | Team Picnic PostNL | 1.6% | 0.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Rikunov Petr | Wheeltop Rotor Chengdu Team | 0.9% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Van Den Boer Seppe | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 1.5% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| de Bod Stefan | Modern Adventure Pro Cycling | 0.1% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Huby Antoine | 7Eleven Cliqq Roadbike Philippines | 0.3% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Le Berre Mathis | Team TotalEnergies | 0.6% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Álvarez Rodrigo | Burgos Burpellet BH | 1.2% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Herreño Martín | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 0.0% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malucelli Matteo | 39.8% | 37.9% | 41.9% | 71.7% | 85.6% | n/a |
| 2 | Gaviria Fernando | 14.8% | 10.7% | 16.4% | 36.0% | 68.9% | n/a |
| 3 | Syritsa Gleb | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 27.6% | 63.3% | n/a |
| 4 | Cavia Daniel | 7.8% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 21.2% | 74.0% | n/a |
| 5 | Pickrell Riley | 5.2% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 25.8% | 72.3% | n/a |
| 6 | Abdul Halil Mohamad Izzat Hilmi | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 11.3% | 52.5% | n/a |
| 7 | Hoogendoorn Roy | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 10.2% | 53.9% | n/a |
| 8 | Van Den Boer Seppe | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 9.4% | 51.0% | n/a |
| 9 | Álvarez Rodrigo | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 6.3% | 63.8% | n/a |
| 10 | Villar Iker | 1.0% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 9.2% | 56.9% | n/a |
| 11 | Rikunov Petr | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 4.7% | 51.2% | n/a |
| 12 | Cettolin Filippo | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 8.9% | 67.3% | n/a |
| 13 | McGill Scott | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 5.4% | 44.0% | n/a |
| 14 | Delle Vedove Alessio | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 4.6% | 41.9% | n/a |
| 15 | Gate Aaron | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 20.5% | n/a |
| 16 | Mohd Nawawi Muhamad Iqbal Daniel | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 5.4% | 41.0% | n/a |
| 17 | Le Berre Mathis | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 5.9% | 40.8% | n/a |
| 18 | Oda Hijiri | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 3.2% | 45.6% | n/a |
| 19 | Corkery Dillon | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 4.3% | 35.6% | n/a |
| 20 | Jasch Lennart | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 19.5% | n/a |
| 21 | Retegi Mikel | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 33.3% | n/a |
| 22 | Meisa Ade | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 5.4% | 39.3% | n/a |
| 23 | Huby Antoine | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 24.4% | n/a |
| 24 | van Rees Christiaan | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 4.9% | 36.8% | n/a |
| 25 | Townsend Rory | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 23.2% | n/a |
| 26 | Meris Sergio | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 9.6% | n/a |
| 27 | Gimeno Nil | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 31.3% | n/a |
| 28 | Donzé Robin | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 16.6% | n/a |
| 29 | Castellon Jan | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 7.5% | n/a |
| 30 | Gonov Lev | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 10.2% | n/a |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellon Jan | 8.6% | 3.4% | 13.1% | 13.5% | 62.4% | n/a |
| 2 | Cavia Daniel | 6.3% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 16.7% | 42.5% | n/a |
| 3 | Jasch Lennart | 5.8% | 3.1% | 8.7% | 14.8% | 62.4% | n/a |
| 4 | Breuillard Nicolas | 5.7% | 3.7% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 47.0% | n/a |
| 5 | Malucelli Matteo | 4.7% | 11.1% | 4.8% | 23.7% | 34.1% | n/a |
| 6 | Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | 2.8% | 1.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 35.3% | n/a |
| 7 | Aparicio Mario | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 28.6% | n/a |
| 8 | López Martin | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 9.6% | 36.8% | n/a |
| 9 | Gutiérrez Jorge | 2.2% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 41.5% | n/a |
| 10 | Diaz Jose Manuel | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 47.2% | n/a |
| 11 | Balderstone Abel | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 6.8% | 42.8% | n/a |
| 12 | Gate Aaron | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 7.9% | 29.1% | n/a |
| 13 | Gaviria Fernando | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 7.1% | 16.7% | n/a |
| 14 | Rikunov Petr | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 5.7% | 40.0% | n/a |
| 15 | de Bod Stefan | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 4.8% | 26.5% | n/a |
| 16 | Huby Antoine | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 5.1% | 36.5% | n/a |
| 17 | Van Den Boer Seppe | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 4.2% | 23.2% | n/a |
| 18 | Le Berre Mathis | 1.2% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 9.6% | 48.3% | n/a |
| 19 | Herreño Martín | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 5.3% | 31.7% | n/a |
| 20 | Álvarez Rodrigo | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 4.7% | 35.8% | n/a |
| 21 | Covili Luca | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 24.0% | n/a |
| 22 | Meris Sergio | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 3.8% | 22.6% | n/a |
| 23 | Bregnhøj Mathias | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 31.1% | n/a |
| 24 | Hoogendoorn Roy | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 5.0% | 24.5% | n/a |
| 25 | Retegi Mikel | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 20.6% | n/a |
| 26 | Stepanov Andrei | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 12.8% | n/a |
| 27 | Syritsa Gleb | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 4.5% | 13.5% | n/a |
| 28 | Haug Kieran | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 25.5% | n/a |
| 29 | Donzé Robin | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 17.7% | n/a |
| 30 | Arriola-Bengoa Julen | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 12.2% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Main read win p | Alt: res_3 win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimeno Nil | Equipo Kern Pharma | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 2 | Aparicio Mario | Burgos Burpellet BH | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| 3 | Stepanov Andrei | Wheeltop Rotor Chengdu Team | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 4 | van Engelen Adne | Terengganu Cycling Team | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 5 | Pickrell Riley | Modern Adventure Pro Cycling | 5.2% | 0.2% |
| 6 | Malucelli Matteo | XDS Astana Team | 39.8% | 4.7% |
| 7 | van Rees Christiaan | Team Picnic PostNL | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 8 | Cettolin Filippo | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 9 | Van Den Boer Seppe | TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM U23 | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| 10 | Syritsa Gleb | XDS Astana Team | 9.6% | 0.5% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Main read | 0.14% | – |
| Alt: res_3 | 0.29% | – |