The same production stack priced under 2 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Main read 95%, Alt: res_3 71% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Main read | Alt: res_3 | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malucelli Matteo | XDS Astana Team | 39.0% | 4.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Gaviria Fernando | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 15.0% | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Syritsa Gleb | XDS Astana Team | 9.9% | 0.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Cavia Daniel | Burgos Burpellet BH | 9.0% | 6.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Castellon Jan | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 0.3% | 7.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Breuillard Nicolas | Team TotalEnergies | 0.2% | 6.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Jasch Lennart | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 0.6% | 4.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Pickrell Riley | Modern Adventure Pro Cycling | 3.2% | 0.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | Unibet Rose Rockets | 0.1% | 3.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Abdul Halil Mohamad Izzat Hilmi | Malaysia Pro Cycling | 2.7% | 0.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Aparicio Mario | Burgos Burpellet BH | 0.1% | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Balderstone Abel | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 0.1% | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Gutiérrez Jorge | Equipo Kern Pharma | 0.1% | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| López Martin | XDS Astana Team | 0.1% | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Diaz Jose Manuel | Burgos Burpellet BH | 0.1% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Gate Aaron | XDS Astana Team | 0.9% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Rikunov Petr | Wheeltop Rotor Chengdu Team | 1.0% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| de Bod Stefan | Modern Adventure Pro Cycling | 0.1% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Van Den Boer Seppe | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 1.2% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Huby Antoine | 7Eleven Cliqq Roadbike Philippines | 0.4% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Le Berre Mathis | Team TotalEnergies | 0.7% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Hoogendoorn Roy | Team Picnic PostNL | 1.2% | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Álvarez Rodrigo | Burgos Burpellet BH | 1.0% | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Herreño Martín | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 0.1% | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malucelli Matteo | 39.0% | 38.5% | 41.2% | 72.6% | 86.3% | n/a |
| 2 | Gaviria Fernando | 15.0% | 11.1% | 16.7% | 36.8% | 66.9% | n/a |
| 3 | Syritsa Gleb | 9.9% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 29.0% | 63.3% | n/a |
| 4 | Cavia Daniel | 9.0% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 22.5% | 72.8% | n/a |
| 5 | Pickrell Riley | 3.2% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 23.7% | 67.5% | n/a |
| 6 | Abdul Halil Mohamad Izzat Hilmi | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 10.7% | 47.2% | n/a |
| 7 | Van Den Boer Seppe | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 8.1% | 51.7% | n/a |
| 8 | Hoogendoorn Roy | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 7.6% | 46.0% | n/a |
| 9 | Álvarez Rodrigo | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 5.0% | 55.4% | n/a |
| 10 | Rikunov Petr | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 4.9% | 47.2% | n/a |
| 11 | Villar Iker | 0.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 8.4% | 51.3% | n/a |
| 12 | Gate Aaron | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 26.1% | n/a |
| 13 | Le Berre Mathis | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 6.8% | 37.8% | n/a |
| 14 | McGill Scott | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 5.3% | 43.6% | n/a |
| 15 | Mohd Nawawi Muhamad Iqbal Daniel | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 5.0% | 35.0% | n/a |
| 16 | Jasch Lennart | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 23.3% | n/a |
| 17 | Cettolin Filippo | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 6.4% | 65.2% | n/a |
| 18 | Delle Vedove Alessio | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 30.1% | n/a |
| 19 | Retegi Mikel | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 34.9% | n/a |
| 20 | Corkery Dillon | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 32.5% | n/a |
| 21 | Townsend Rory | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 26.4% | n/a |
| 22 | Huby Antoine | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 24.6% | n/a |
| 23 | Castellon Jan | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 6.9% | n/a |
| 24 | Oda Hijiri | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 27.8% | n/a |
| 25 | Donzé Robin | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 19.0% | n/a |
| 26 | Meris Sergio | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 11.4% | n/a |
| 27 | Meisa Ade | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 23.1% | n/a |
| 28 | Gimeno Nil | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 21.8% | n/a |
| 29 | Breuillard Nicolas | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 12.2% | n/a |
| 30 | Stepanov Andrei | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 9.1% | n/a |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellon Jan | 7.4% | 3.8% | 11.3% | 14.4% | 65.6% | n/a |
| 2 | Cavia Daniel | 6.6% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 16.6% | 34.7% | n/a |
| 3 | Breuillard Nicolas | 6.1% | 3.9% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 39.4% | n/a |
| 4 | Malucelli Matteo | 4.9% | 10.7% | 5.5% | 23.2% | 32.3% | n/a |
| 5 | Jasch Lennart | 4.4% | 3.0% | 6.5% | 15.2% | 65.9% | n/a |
| 6 | Christophersen Cedrik Bakke | 3.0% | 1.6% | 4.6% | 8.3% | 45.1% | n/a |
| 7 | Aparicio Mario | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 29.8% | n/a |
| 8 | Balderstone Abel | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 9.4% | 54.7% | n/a |
| 9 | Gaviria Fernando | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 7.4% | 15.3% | n/a |
| 10 | Gutiérrez Jorge | 2.1% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 43.5% | n/a |
| 11 | López Martin | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 7.9% | 36.5% | n/a |
| 12 | Diaz Jose Manuel | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 6.6% | 51.5% | n/a |
| 13 | Gate Aaron | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 5.1% | 21.1% | n/a |
| 14 | Rikunov Petr | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 5.4% | 24.3% | n/a |
| 15 | de Bod Stefan | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 31.4% | n/a |
| 16 | Huby Antoine | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 4.9% | 32.2% | n/a |
| 17 | Le Berre Mathis | 1.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 8.2% | 45.0% | n/a |
| 18 | Van Den Boer Seppe | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 6.4% | 13.3% | n/a |
| 19 | Herreño Martín | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 3.9% | 27.2% | n/a |
| 20 | Álvarez Rodrigo | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 20.7% | n/a |
| 21 | Hoogendoorn Roy | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 14.8% | n/a |
| 22 | Bregnhøj Mathias | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 35.0% | n/a |
| 23 | Meris Sergio | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 4.7% | 23.8% | n/a |
| 24 | Covili Luca | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 24.8% | n/a |
| 25 | Retegi Mikel | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 21.4% | n/a |
| 26 | Stepanov Andrei | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 15.3% | n/a |
| 27 | Syritsa Gleb | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 3.7% | 10.2% | n/a |
| 28 | Haug Kieran | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 27.5% | n/a |
| 29 | Donzé Robin | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 23.8% | n/a |
| 30 | Arriola-Bengoa Julen | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 12.5% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Main read win p | Alt: res_3 win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malucelli Matteo | XDS Astana Team | 39.0% | 4.9% |
| 2 | Pickrell Riley | Modern Adventure Pro Cycling | 3.2% | 0.2% |
| 3 | van Rees Christiaan | Team Picnic PostNL | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 4 | Gaviria Fernando | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 15.0% | 2.2% |
| 5 | Cettolin Filippo | Bardiani-CSF 7 Saber | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 6 | Townsend Rory | Unibet Rose Rockets | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 7 | Le Berre Mathis | Team TotalEnergies | 0.7% | 1.2% |
| 8 | Cavia Daniel | Burgos Burpellet BH | 9.0% | 6.6% |
| 9 | Abdul Halil Mohamad Izzat Hilmi | Malaysia Pro Cycling | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| 10 | Arifin Muh Imam | Nusantara Cycling Team | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Main read | 39.04% | – |
| Alt: res_3 | 4.91% | – |