The same production stack priced under 2 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Main read 106%, Alt: res_4 73% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Main read | Alt: res_4 | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kooij Olav | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 28.0% | 0.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Magnier Paul | Soudal Quick-Step | 18.1% | 0.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Ayuso Juan | Lidl-Trek | 0.0% | 14.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 1.2% | 9.7% | n/a | – | – |
| de Kleijn Arvid | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 9.1% | 0.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS | 0.2% | 6.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Meeus Jordi | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 5.5% | 0.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Molano Sebastian | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 4.4% | 0.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Bisiaux Léo | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 0.0% | 4.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Fretin Milan | Cofidis | 4.1% | 0.0% | n/a | – | – |
| van den Berg Marijn | EF Education-EasyPost | 3.9% | 0.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Kanter Max | XDS Astana Team | 3.8% | 0.0% | n/a | – | – |
| August AJ | Netcompany INEOS | 0.0% | 3.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Van Wilder Ilan | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.0% | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Martinez Daniel | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 0.0% | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Blikra Erlend | Uno-X Mobility | 2.3% | 0.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Eulalio Afonso | Bahrain Victorious | 0.0% | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Widar Jarno | Lotto-Intermarché | 0.0% | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Moschetti Matteo | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 2.1% | 0.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Lamperti Luke | EF Education-EasyPost | 2.0% | 0.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Groves Kaden | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 1.9% | 0.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Narvaez Jhonnatan | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 0.1% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Barré Louis | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.0% | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Honore Mikkel | EF Education-EasyPost | 0.1% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kooij Olav | 28.0% | 38.8% | 23.7% | 55.1% | 72.2% | n/a |
| 2 | Magnier Paul | 18.1% | 25.5% | 15.2% | 48.6% | 72.0% | n/a |
| 3 | de Kleijn Arvid | 9.1% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 20.3% | 43.6% | n/a |
| 4 | Meeus Jordi | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 19.2% | 54.9% | n/a |
| 5 | Molano Sebastian | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 13.5% | 41.6% | n/a |
| 6 | Fretin Milan | 4.1% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 11.3% | 49.9% | n/a |
| 7 | van den Berg Marijn | 3.9% | 1.6% | 4.3% | 8.5% | 52.5% | n/a |
| 8 | Kanter Max | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 19.2% | 51.5% | n/a |
| 9 | Blikra Erlend | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 6.9% | 33.5% | n/a |
| 10 | Moschetti Matteo | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 9.7% | 45.6% | n/a |
| 11 | Lamperti Luke | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 5.2% | 38.2% | n/a |
| 12 | Groves Kaden | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 5.5% | 24.8% | n/a |
| 13 | Kogut Oded | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 5.9% | 36.6% | n/a |
| 14 | Biesterbos Frits | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 49.0% | n/a |
| 15 | Milan Matteo | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 6.8% | 40.3% | n/a |
| 16 | Bol Cees | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 4.8% | 29.9% | n/a |
| 17 | Welsford Sam | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 8.2% | 29.5% | n/a |
| 18 | Pidcock Tom | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 21.1% | n/a |
| 19 | Jakobsen Fabio | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 18.6% | n/a |
| 20 | Marit Arne | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 4.1% | 49.1% | n/a |
| 21 | Donaldson Robert | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 24.2% | n/a |
| 22 | Miquel Delgado Pau | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 36.2% | n/a |
| 23 | Einhorn Itamar | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 4.4% | 38.3% | n/a |
| 24 | Oliveira Rui | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 27.4% | n/a |
| 25 | Erzen Zak | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 38.6% | n/a |
| 26 | Pluimers Rick | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 30.7% | n/a |
| 27 | Taminiaux Lionel | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 10.9% | n/a |
| 28 | Gudmestad Tord | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 22.2% | n/a |
| 29 | Gilmore Brady | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 16.4% | n/a |
| 30 | Govekar Matevz | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 23.1% | n/a |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ayuso Juan | 14.2% | 17.5% | 18.6% | 38.8% | 77.2% | n/a |
| 2 | Pidcock Tom | 9.7% | 5.5% | 14.3% | 20.2% | 66.1% | n/a |
| 3 | Vauquelin Kévin | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 18.7% | 52.4% | n/a |
| 4 | Bisiaux Léo | 4.3% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 20.7% | 58.4% | n/a |
| 5 | August AJ | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 14.5% | 45.3% | n/a |
| 6 | Van Wilder Ilan | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 9.3% | 43.4% | n/a |
| 7 | Martinez Daniel | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 12.0% | 36.0% | n/a |
| 8 | Eulalio Afonso | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 11.1% | 43.1% | n/a |
| 9 | Widar Jarno | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 8.9% | 51.7% | n/a |
| 10 | Narvaez Jhonnatan | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 9.3% | 31.6% | n/a |
| 11 | Barré Louis | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 6.4% | 28.1% | n/a |
| 12 | Honore Mikkel | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 21.9% | n/a |
| 13 | Van Gils Maxim | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 8.5% | 29.6% | n/a |
| 14 | Pinarello Alessandro | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 32.0% | n/a |
| 15 | Boichis Adrien | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 8.2% | 25.6% | n/a |
| 16 | Bagioli Andrea | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 4.9% | 27.9% | n/a |
| 17 | Braz Afonso Clément | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 3.9% | 35.7% | n/a |
| 18 | Champoussin Clément | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 3.9% | 30.3% | n/a |
| 19 | Romo Javier | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 5.1% | 31.7% | n/a |
| 20 | Graat Tijmen | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 23.0% | n/a |
| 21 | Soler Marc | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 31.3% | n/a |
| 22 | Meehan Jamie | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 16.6% | n/a |
| 23 | Gilmore Brady | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 8.1% | n/a |
| 24 | van den Berg Marijn | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 7.7% | n/a |
| 25 | Kragh Andersen Søren | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 7.3% | n/a |
| 26 | Powless Neilson | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 15.3% | n/a |
| 27 | Schiffer Anton | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 13.0% | n/a |
| 28 | Lutsenko Alexey | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 16.3% | n/a |
| 29 | Brenner Marco | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 16.2% | n/a |
| 30 | Cras Steff | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 20.9% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Main read win p | Alt: res_4 win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magnier Paul | Soudal Quick-Step | 18.1% | 0.1% |
| 2 | Welsford Sam | Netcompany INEOS | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Kanter Max | XDS Astana Team | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Kogut Oded | NSN Cycling Team | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 5 | de Kleijn Arvid | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 6 | Milan Matteo | Groupama-FDJ United | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 7 | Blikra Erlend | Uno-X Mobility | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| 8 | Lamperti Luke | EF Education-EasyPost | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| 9 | Taminiaux Lionel | Lotto-Intermarché | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 10 | Einhorn Itamar | NSN Cycling Team | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Main read | 18.12% | – |
| Alt: res_4 | 0.14% | – |