The same production stack priced under 2 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Main read 100%, Alt: res_4 75% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Main read | Alt: res_4 | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kooij Olav | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 26.4% | 0.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Magnier Paul | Soudal Quick-Step | 16.2% | 0.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 1.3% | 15.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Ayuso Juan | Lidl-Trek | 0.0% | 11.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS | 0.2% | 9.5% | n/a | – | – |
| de Kleijn Arvid | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 8.0% | 0.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Meeus Jordi | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 5.8% | 0.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Molano Sebastian | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 4.2% | 0.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Kanter Max | XDS Astana Team | 4.0% | 0.2% | n/a | – | – |
| van den Berg Marijn | EF Education-EasyPost | 4.0% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Fretin Milan | Cofidis | 3.9% | 0.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Bisiaux Léo | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 0.0% | 2.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Van Wilder Ilan | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.0% | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Blikra Erlend | Uno-X Mobility | 2.2% | 0.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Moschetti Matteo | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 1.8% | 0.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Martinez Daniel | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 0.0% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Lamperti Luke | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.8% | 0.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Eulalio Afonso | Bahrain Victorious | 0.0% | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Narvaez Jhonnatan | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 0.1% | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Pinarello Alessandro | NSN Cycling Team | 0.0% | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Groves Kaden | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 1.7% | 0.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Boichis Adrien | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 0.2% | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Barré Louis | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.0% | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Widar Jarno | Lotto-Intermarché | 0.0% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kooij Olav | 26.4% | 36.7% | 23.8% | 53.2% | 69.9% | n/a |
| 2 | Magnier Paul | 16.2% | 20.7% | 15.0% | 41.3% | 64.8% | n/a |
| 3 | de Kleijn Arvid | 8.0% | 3.4% | 9.2% | 16.4% | 40.5% | n/a |
| 4 | Meeus Jordi | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 21.3% | 55.3% | n/a |
| 5 | Molano Sebastian | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 11.4% | 36.6% | n/a |
| 6 | Kanter Max | 4.0% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 29.2% | 62.6% | n/a |
| 7 | van den Berg Marijn | 4.0% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 9.3% | 51.5% | n/a |
| 8 | Fretin Milan | 3.9% | 1.8% | 4.4% | 10.0% | 44.6% | n/a |
| 9 | Blikra Erlend | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 8.3% | 42.0% | n/a |
| 10 | Moschetti Matteo | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 7.3% | 38.9% | n/a |
| 11 | Lamperti Luke | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 5.8% | 46.7% | n/a |
| 12 | Groves Kaden | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 22.0% | n/a |
| 13 | Welsford Sam | 1.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 12.2% | 37.3% | n/a |
| 14 | Bol Cees | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 5.6% | 32.5% | n/a |
| 15 | Kogut Oded | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 6.9% | 40.2% | n/a |
| 16 | Biesterbos Frits | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 54.4% | n/a |
| 17 | Milan Matteo | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 3.9% | 42.8% | n/a |
| 18 | Pidcock Tom | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 19.6% | n/a |
| 19 | Marit Arne | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 4.4% | 42.3% | n/a |
| 20 | Miquel Delgado Pau | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 3.7% | 44.0% | n/a |
| 21 | Donaldson Robert | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 21.9% | n/a |
| 22 | Oliveira Rui | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 24.8% | n/a |
| 23 | Einhorn Itamar | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 4.7% | 36.8% | n/a |
| 24 | Jakobsen Fabio | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 15.1% | n/a |
| 25 | Erzen Zak | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.6% | 39.0% | n/a |
| 26 | Taminiaux Lionel | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 18.6% | n/a |
| 27 | Gudmestad Tord | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 19.1% | n/a |
| 28 | Vermeersch Florian | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 11.2% | n/a |
| 29 | Gilmore Brady | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 18.3% | n/a |
| 30 | Govekar Matevz | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 33.1% | n/a |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pidcock Tom | 15.3% | 14.9% | 20.4% | 35.4% | 79.8% | n/a |
| 2 | Ayuso Juan | 11.5% | 12.8% | 15.0% | 31.3% | 72.3% | n/a |
| 3 | Vauquelin Kévin | 9.5% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 27.3% | 74.2% | n/a |
| 4 | Bisiaux Léo | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 12.0% | 49.7% | n/a |
| 5 | Van Wilder Ilan | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 8.6% | 44.7% | n/a |
| 6 | Martinez Daniel | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 7.1% | 35.2% | n/a |
| 7 | Eulalio Afonso | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 9.4% | 42.6% | n/a |
| 8 | Narvaez Jhonnatan | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 11.2% | 46.4% | n/a |
| 9 | Pinarello Alessandro | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 43.9% | n/a |
| 10 | Boichis Adrien | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 29.1% | n/a |
| 11 | Barré Louis | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 5.2% | 34.0% | n/a |
| 12 | Widar Jarno | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 7.5% | 50.8% | n/a |
| 13 | Van Gils Maxim | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 8.7% | 38.7% | n/a |
| 14 | Gilmore Brady | 1.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 7.2% | 26.9% | n/a |
| 15 | Honore Mikkel | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 24.4% | n/a |
| 16 | van den Berg Marijn | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 15.2% | n/a |
| 17 | Bagioli Andrea | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 5.3% | 29.6% | n/a |
| 18 | Champoussin Clément | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 6.0% | 42.2% | n/a |
| 19 | Braz Afonso Clément | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 32.5% | n/a |
| 20 | Kooij Olav | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 5.8% | n/a |
| 21 | Magnier Paul | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 4.5% | n/a |
| 22 | Graat Tijmen | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 29.1% | n/a |
| 23 | Lamperti Luke | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 4.2% | 10.5% | n/a |
| 24 | Romo Javier | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 18.7% | n/a |
| 25 | Lutsenko Alexey | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 2.3% | 19.7% | n/a |
| 26 | Miquel Delgado Pau | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 11.7% | n/a |
| 27 | Vermeersch Florian | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 3.3% | 14.6% | n/a |
| 28 | Kragh Andersen Søren | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 3.6% | n/a |
| 29 | Biesterbos Frits | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 15.3% | n/a |
| 30 | Brenner Marco | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 19.6% | n/a |
After the stage
The stage hasn't been settled yet — this section fills in once the results capture runs after the finish.