The same production stack priced under 2 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Main read 92%, Alt: res_3 79% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Main read | Alt: res_3 | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Cameron | Li Ning Star | 25.4% | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Munoz Hodei | Euskaltel-Euskadi | 21.2% | 8.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Cavia Daniel | Burgos Burpellet BH | 9.5% | 14.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Rasch Jesper | China Anta - Mentech CT | 13.0% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Mudgway Luke | Li Ning Star | 1.5% | 6.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Quartucci Lorenzo | Burgos Burpellet BH | 0.5% | 4.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Ugarte Gari | Euskaltel-Euskadi | 3.7% | 3.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Hopkins Dylan | Roojai Insurance Winspace | 0.4% | 3.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Rikunov Petr | Wheeltop Rotor Chengdu Team | 1.2% | 3.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Stepanov Andrei | Wheeltop Rotor Chengdu Team | 0.3% | 3.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Lopez Jordi | Euskaltel-Euskadi | 1.1% | 2.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Álvarez Rodrigo | Burgos Burpellet BH | 2.3% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Boúglas Georgios | Burgos Burpellet BH | 2.0% | 0.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Sepulveda Eduardo | Li Ning Star | 0.1% | 2.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Meijers Jeroen | Victoria Sports Pro Cycling | 0.4% | 2.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Bregnhøj Mathias | Terengganu Cycling Team | 0.1% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Sydor Serhii | Huansheng - Vonoa - Taishan Sport Team | 1.3% | 0.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Küüt Oskar | Quick Pro Team | 0.1% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Raileanu Cristian | Li Ning Star | 0.1% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Kminek Vojtech | Burgos Burpellet BH | 1.1% | 0.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Pronskiy Vadim | Terengganu Cycling Team | 0.1% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Verburg Luke | Azerion / Villa Valkenburg | 1.0% | 0.3% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Cameron | 25.4% | 24.0% | 28.0% | 44.2% | 74.0% | n/a |
| 2 | Munoz Hodei | 21.2% | 22.4% | 22.7% | 48.6% | 86.2% | n/a |
| 3 | Rasch Jesper | 13.0% | 10.5% | 14.7% | 29.1% | 65.0% | n/a |
| 4 | Cavia Daniel | 9.5% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 34.5% | 79.1% | n/a |
| 5 | Ugarte Gari | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 11.8% | 62.5% | n/a |
| 6 | Álvarez Rodrigo | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 11.0% | 64.8% | n/a |
| 7 | Boúglas Georgios | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 7.6% | 31.6% | n/a |
| 8 | Mudgway Luke | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 8.3% | 50.6% | n/a |
| 9 | Sydor Serhii | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 5.2% | 38.0% | n/a |
| 10 | Rikunov Petr | 1.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 11.6% | 57.2% | n/a |
| 11 | Kminek Vojtech | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 4.6% | 34.5% | n/a |
| 12 | Lopez Jordi | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 4.0% | 41.2% | n/a |
| 13 | Verburg Luke | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 4.9% | 41.5% | n/a |
| 14 | Da Silva Tiano | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 3.9% | 36.8% | n/a |
| 15 | Isasa Xabier | 0.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 6.0% | 36.2% | n/a |
| 16 | Forbes James | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 3.6% | 24.0% | n/a |
| 17 | Quartucci Lorenzo | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 3.3% | 25.0% | n/a |
| 18 | Labib Shotorban Ali | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 5.1% | 31.7% | n/a |
| 19 | Hopkins Dylan | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 21.5% | n/a |
| 20 | Meijers Jeroen | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 47.0% | n/a |
| 21 | Stepanov Andrei | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 20.6% | n/a |
| 22 | Yang Mingsen | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 33.8% | n/a |
| 23 | Miltiadis Andreas | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 6.3% | n/a |
| 24 | Iderbold Bold | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 17.8% | n/a |
| 25 | Tamm Lauri | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 15.0% | n/a |
| 26 | Vandenbulcke Alex | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 19.6% | n/a |
| 27 | Rizqi Dimas Nur Fadhil | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 11.7% | n/a |
| 28 | Pronskiy Vadim | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 15.6% | n/a |
| 29 | Rosli Aiman | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 10.3% | n/a |
| 30 | Desriac Loïc | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 12.7% | n/a |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavia Daniel | 14.8% | 13.6% | 19.0% | 35.7% | 72.2% | n/a |
| 2 | Munoz Hodei | 8.2% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 29.4% | 64.6% | n/a |
| 3 | Mudgway Luke | 6.6% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 21.6% | 72.0% | n/a |
| 4 | Quartucci Lorenzo | 4.1% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 14.8% | 60.8% | n/a |
| 5 | Ugarte Gari | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 13.2% | 54.3% | n/a |
| 6 | Hopkins Dylan | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 11.7% | 45.8% | n/a |
| 7 | Rikunov Petr | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 15.3% | 63.9% | n/a |
| 8 | Stepanov Andrei | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 10.5% | 55.3% | n/a |
| 9 | Lopez Jordi | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 9.3% | 50.8% | n/a |
| 10 | Scott Cameron | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 8.8% | 23.3% | n/a |
| 11 | Sepulveda Eduardo | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 20.4% | 60.3% | n/a |
| 12 | Meijers Jeroen | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 11.4% | 63.5% | n/a |
| 13 | Álvarez Rodrigo | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 9.9% | 50.1% | n/a |
| 14 | Bregnhøj Mathias | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 47.6% | n/a |
| 15 | Rasch Jesper | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 6.9% | 19.0% | n/a |
| 16 | Küüt Oskar | 1.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 9.0% | 49.7% | n/a |
| 17 | Raileanu Cristian | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 35.5% | n/a |
| 18 | Pronskiy Vadim | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 20.2% | n/a |
| 19 | Bettles Carter | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 26.8% | n/a |
| 20 | Miltiadis Andreas | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 9.8% | n/a |
| 21 | Caicedo Jonathan | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 28.9% | n/a |
| 22 | Desriac Loïc | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 27.5% | n/a |
| 23 | Whitehouse Daniel | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 3.4% | 27.9% | n/a |
| 24 | Yang Mingsen | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 40.4% | n/a |
| 25 | Isasa Xabier | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 28.1% | n/a |
| 26 | Aguirre Hernan | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 24.7% | n/a |
| 27 | Callejas Alejandro | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 25.4% | n/a |
| 28 | Iderbold Bold | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 2.6% | 26.3% | n/a |
| 29 | Rizqi Dimas Nur Fadhil | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 22.9% | n/a |
| 30 | Tamm Lauri | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 24.4% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Main read win p | Alt: res_3 win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mudgway Luke | LI NING STAR | 1.5% | 6.6% |
| 2 | Tamm Lauri | CHINA ANTA - MENTECH CYCLING TEAM | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| 3 | Sydor Serhii | HUANSHENG-VONOA-TAISHAN SPORT TEAM | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 4 | Cavia Daniel | BURGOS-BURPELLET-BH | 9.5% | 14.8% |
| 5 | Munoz Hodei | EUSKALTEL-EUSKADI | 21.2% | 8.2% |
| 6 | Rikunov Petr | WHEELTOP ROTOR CHENGDU TEAM | 1.2% | 3.0% |
| 7 | Álvarez Rodrigo | BURGOS-BURPELLET-BH | 2.3% | 1.8% |
| 8 | HAYDON-SMITH Rohan | ST GEORGE CONTINENTAL CYCLING TEAM | – | – |
| 9 | Stepanov Andrei | WHEELTOP ROTOR CHENGDU TEAM | 0.3% | 3.0% |
| 10 | GRÖMMEL Rens | AZERION / VILLA VALKENBURG | – | – |
2 riders in the top 15 are shown under a provisional identity pending reconciliation: HAYDON-SMITH Rohan, GRÖMMEL Rens.
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Main read | 1.52% | – |
| Alt: res_3 | 6.60% | – |