The same production stack priced under 1 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Hindsight (post-hoc) 99% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grisel Matys | LOTTO INTERMARCHÉ | 15.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Jeannière Emilien | TOTALENERGIES | 11.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Thierry Pierre | TOTALENERGIES | 11.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Lonardi Giovanni | TEAM POLTI VISITMALTA | 7.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Cuylits Mauro | LOTTO - GROUPE WANTY | 5.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Slock Liam | LOTTO INTERMARCHÉ | 4.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Le Berre Mathis | TOTALENERGIES | 4.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Fofonov Artem | XDS ASTANA DEVELOPMENT TEAM | 2.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Bagatin Christian | MBH BANK CSB TELECOM FORT | 2.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Vadic Baptiste | TOTALENERGIES | 2.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Budzinski Marcin | MBH BANK CSB TELECOM FORT | 2.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Serrano Javier | TEAM POLTI VISITMALTA | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Peñalver Manuel | TEAM POLTI VISITMALTA | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Balmer Alexandre | SOLUTION TECH NIPPO RALI | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Chesini Cesare | MBH BANK CSB TELECOM FORT | 1.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Regnanti Matteo | SOLUTION TECH NIPPO RALI | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Rysbay Dias | XDS ASTANA DEVELOPMENT TEAM | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Place Maxence | AARCO | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Dauphin Florian | TOTALENERGIES | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grisel Matys | 15.3% | 8.8% | 17.0% | 27.9% | 70.0% | n/a |
| 2 | Jeannière Emilien | 11.9% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 34.1% | 69.1% | n/a |
| 3 | Thierry Pierre | 11.2% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 22.5% | 59.5% | n/a |
| 4 | Lonardi Giovanni | 7.2% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 25.5% | 64.9% | n/a |
| 5 | Cuylits Mauro | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 18.7% | 47.7% | n/a |
| 6 | Slock Liam | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 12.8% | 43.1% | n/a |
| 7 | Le Berre Mathis | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 10.4% | 47.6% | n/a |
| 8 | Fofonov Artem | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 9.6% | 44.4% | n/a |
| 9 | Bagatin Christian | 2.9% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 8.0% | 31.3% | n/a |
| 10 | Vadic Baptiste | 2.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 12.5% | 43.0% | n/a |
| 11 | Budzinski Marcin | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 39.5% | n/a |
| 12 | Serrano Javier | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 6.9% | 47.8% | n/a |
| 13 | Peñalver Manuel | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 9.3% | 40.8% | n/a |
| 14 | Balmer Alexandre | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 28.1% | n/a |
| 15 | Chesini Cesare | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 5.3% | 34.1% | n/a |
| 16 | Regnanti Matteo | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 33.8% | n/a |
| 17 | Rysbay Dias | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 11.9% | 40.3% | n/a |
| 18 | Place Maxence | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 3.6% | 22.6% | n/a |
| 19 | Dauphin Florian | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 5.6% | 19.3% | n/a |
| 20 | Maestri Mirco | 0.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 4.0% | 24.7% | n/a |
| 21 | Shelton Noah | 0.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 13.7% | 43.9% | n/a |
| 22 | Wang Gustav | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 2.8% | 30.7% | n/a |
| 23 | Nespoli Lorenzo | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 16.4% | n/a |
| 24 | Doubey Fabien | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 15.4% | n/a |
| 25 | Greenwell Samuel | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 13.9% | n/a |
| 26 | Buratti Nicolò | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 26.4% | n/a |
| 27 | Van Niekerk Emile | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 13.1% | n/a |
| 28 | Girmay Mewael | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 17.5% | n/a |
| 29 | Benito Adrián | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 14.1% | n/a |
| 30 | Galbusera Pietro | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 15.2% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vadic Baptiste | TOTALENERGIES | 2.6% |
| 2 | Balmer Alexandre | SOLUTION TECH NIPPO RALI | 1.8% |
| 3 | Fofonov Artem | XDS ASTANA DEVELOPMENT TEAM | 2.9% |
| 4 | Thierry Pierre | TOTALENERGIES | 11.2% |
| 5 | Lonardi Giovanni | TEAM POLTI VISITMALTA | 7.2% |
| 6 | Dauphin Florian | TOTALENERGIES | 1.0% |
| 7 | Negrente Mattia | XDS ASTANA DEVELOPMENT TEAM | 0.2% |
| 8 | Budzinski Marcin | MBH BANK CSB TELECOM FORT | 2.4% |
| 9 | Le Berre Mathis | TOTALENERGIES | 4.4% |
| 10 | Serrano Javier | TEAM POLTI VISITMALTA | 2.2% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 2.60% | – |