The same production stack priced under 1 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Hindsight (post-hoc) 107% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajovic Dusan | SOLUTION TECH NIPPO RALI | 30.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Malucelli Matteo | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 19.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Salby Alexander | LI NING STAR | 9.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Munoz Hodei | EUSKALTEL-EUSKADI | 5.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Hennequin Paul | EUSKALTEL-EUSKADI | 4.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Walsh Liam | CCACHE X BODYWRAP | 4.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Oosterlinck Joes | VAN RYSEL ROUBAIX | 3.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Barbier Pierre | TERENGGANU CYCLING TEAM | 3.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Pita Cristian | ROOJAI INSURANCE WINSPACE | 2.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Rasch Jesper | CHINA ANTA - MENTECH CYCLING TEAM | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Scott Cameron | LI NING STAR | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Finkst Tilen | SOLUTION TECH NIPPO RALI | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Shnyrko Aliaksei | LI NING STAR | 1.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Wang Gustav | XDS ASTANA DEVELOPMENT TEAM | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Syritsa Gleb | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Hamdan Wan Abdul Rahman | TERENGGANU CYCLING TEAM | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rajovic Dusan | 30.1% | 36.4% | 26.5% | 56.0% | 83.5% | n/a |
| 2 | Malucelli Matteo | 19.5% | 14.7% | 19.4% | 47.9% | 81.2% | n/a |
| 3 | Salby Alexander | 9.2% | 12.5% | 7.7% | 28.7% | 67.6% | n/a |
| 4 | Munoz Hodei | 5.2% | 8.1% | 4.1% | 24.1% | 74.6% | n/a |
| 5 | Hennequin Paul | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 18.2% | 68.9% | n/a |
| 6 | Walsh Liam | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 15.3% | 57.4% | n/a |
| 7 | Oosterlinck Joes | 3.8% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 51.7% | n/a |
| 8 | Barbier Pierre | 3.8% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 15.9% | 63.9% | n/a |
| 9 | Pita Cristian | 2.9% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 6.3% | 47.9% | n/a |
| 10 | Rasch Jesper | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 7.1% | 46.1% | n/a |
| 11 | Scott Cameron | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 9.1% | 55.3% | n/a |
| 12 | Finkst Tilen | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 44.6% | n/a |
| 13 | Shnyrko Aliaksei | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 4.5% | 31.1% | n/a |
| 14 | Wang Gustav | 1.2% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 22.3% | n/a |
| 15 | Syritsa Gleb | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 8.5% | 43.6% | n/a |
| 16 | Hamdan Wan Abdul Rahman | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 3.4% | 22.5% | n/a |
| 17 | Bradac Adam | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 7.9% | 49.4% | n/a |
| 18 | Rysbay Dias | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 3.0% | 30.0% | n/a |
| 19 | Konychev Alexander | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 50.3% | n/a |
| 20 | Phonarjthan Patompob | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 24.2% | n/a |
| 21 | Da Silva Tiano | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 46.0% | n/a |
| 22 | Sydor Serhii | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 32.4% | n/a |
| 23 | Isasa Xabier | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 21.6% | n/a |
| 24 | Verburg Luke | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 35.5% | n/a |
| 25 | Lopez Jordi | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 18.9% | n/a |
| 26 | Nencini Tommaso | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 38.4% | n/a |
| 27 | Räim Mihkel | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 21.5% | n/a |
| 28 | Vahtra Norman | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 32.6% | n/a |
| 29 | Ugarte Gari | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 26.9% | n/a |
| 30 | Rota Rus Raul | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 31.3% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malucelli Matteo | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 19.5% |
| 2 | Salby Alexander | LI NING STAR | 9.2% |
| 3 | Syritsa Gleb | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 1.1% |
| 4 | Rajovic Dusan | SOLUTION TECH NIPPO RALI | 30.1% |
| 5 | Giddings Joshua | LOTTO INTERMARCHÉ | 0.1% |
| 6 | Oosterlinck Joes | VAN RYSEL ROUBAIX | 3.8% |
| 7 | Hennequin Paul | EUSKALTEL-EUSKADI | 4.3% |
| 8 | Rasch Jesper | CHINA ANTA - MENTECH CYCLING TEAM | 2.5% |
| 9 | Barbier Pierre | TERENGGANU CYCLING TEAM | 3.8% |
| 10 | Bradac Adam | FACTOR RACING | 0.9% |
1 rider in the top 15 is shown under a provisional identity pending reconciliation: PITA BOLAÑOS Alexander.
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 19.51% | – |